Week of June 8 – 12 v. 2/23

Stocks in New York pushed higher once again last week as investors were encouraged by some less-than-terrible economic data.  Most of the gains came on Monday’s trading as the market see-sawed after that, as the Dow closed at 8763 and the S&P at 940.  This outcome was disappointing since I had expected more selling later in the week on Friday’s tense Sun-Saturn aspect.   The Jupiter-Neptune energy is still very much in effect here as it is boosting short term positive aspects and mitigating the negative influence of short term bearish aspects.  The Venus-Jupiter-Neptune combination early in the week came through more or less on schedule although the rise was larger than anticipated as the market pushed through the May 8 highs quite easily.  The Mars-Rahu square midweek coincided with a decline Wednesday although it really didn’t amount to much, just 1%.  From a technical perspective, the picture is mixed.  While we have a bullish crossover and positive histograms on the daily MACD last week, there is a possible divergence there as last week’s higher highs are not reflected in the MACD levels, which are actually lower than those of early May.  Moreover, last week’s volume was lower than the May average, which is turn was lower than April’s.   All in all, it does not present a compelling picture of a sustainable rally. 

This week is likely to start off fairly positively as there are two probable bullish aspects in the sky.  First, Venus trines Pluto on Monday and with the Moon along for the ride in Sagittarius, there is the possibility for a significant move up.  One caveat here is that Venus will have passed its exact aspect near midday, so it’s conceivable that stocks may peak in the morning and fall after that.  On Tuesday and Wednesday, Mercury (3 Taurus) will assume a similar position that Venus occupied last Monday that sent stocks higher as part of the larger Jupiter-Neptune-Uranus alignment.  This is a more reliable indicator for at least one solid (>2%) up day midweek.  As the week progresses, the sources of available planetary fuel for the bulls appears to dry up.  In fact, a distinctly bearish indicator could occur as soon as Wednesday as Mercury and Mars will be moving at the same velocity.  This is likely to result in some downward pressure, although the Mercury-Mars velocity measurement occurs very close in time to the Mercury-Jupiter-Neptune alignment so there may be some offsetting there.  Overall, I think the early part of the week looks bullish, with Dow 9000 as a possibility. But later in the week seems less positive, so expect some profit taking.  If Monday is positive from the Venus-Pluto aspect, then we could well be positive overall for the week.

Next week (June 15-19) will begin on another positive note as the Sun forms a strong aspect with Jupiter-Neptune.  With Jupiter turning retrograde on the 15th, this influence looks like it will carry the day and may well coincide with a short term high, assuming any pullback late this week isn’t too dramatic.  After Tuesday the 16th the market will be more prone to sell offs.  This is in keeping with our understanding of the role of stationing planets, i.e. planets that change direction with respect to the Earth.  Planetary stations show a significant (but not law-like) correlation with reversals in market direction.  As we know, Saturn’s May direct station failed to coincide with any clear market manifestation.  Jupiter is another possibility, however, and its imminent station of the 15th is another clue that we could see a pullback soon.  While we can’t time the reversal exactly from the planetary station, it is a useful piece of data.  The market will likely slip back the following week (June 22- 26) with the Venus-Mars conjunction at 22 Aries which will be channeling the negative energy of Saturn (22 Leo).  At this point, this late June period appears to be the leading candidate for an intermediate low.    I am not expecting too much downside here, perhaps 10%, which may only take us down to the May lows of 8200.  This bull leg seems to have more left in the tank to rally again in July, so there is a good chance for higher highs then. 

5-day outlook   —  neutral to bullish
30-day outlook —  neutral to bullish
90-day outlook —  bullish
1-year outlook  —  bearish

The US dollar managed to get up off the mat last week as it again rose above 80. As forecast, the early week saw declines with Tuesday seeing the low at 78.5 on the Venus-Jupiter aspect. The Wednesday rise coincided with the Mars-Rahu aspect and Friday’s even bigger gain was the perfect expression of the Sun-Saturn aspect that hit the angles in the USDX natal chart. I’m a little less bullish on the dollar this week due to an absence of clear hits to the natal chart. It seems very likely to decline in the early week with some recovery later on as Mars conjoins the natal Rahu on Friday. Perhaps that may indicate early week trades near 79 with some bounce back later towards 80. Overall, I see the dollar declining this week. In addition, Mercury will once again moving into a tense opposition aspect with the natal Sun-Saturn conjunction late in the week. Readers should note that when Mercury was retrograde in mid to late May, this aspect saw the dollar tumble from 83 to 80 in very short order. The influence is unlikely to be as negative this time around, but it is definitely a bearish influence. On the bright side, it is only exact over the weekend (Jun 13-14) when markets are closed so most of the damage may happen in the after hours market. After that, we will have to wait and see what the effects are of the Ketu-Saturn aspect. Ketu is associated with suddenness, so a large move is possible. As I have explained previously, this is negative more often than not, but on this occasion there is good reason to think that Ketu will flip and turn positive.

The Euro fell back under 1.40 last week as Venus and Mars transited through the malefic 8th house in the Euro natal chart. This was more or less in keeping with expectations as the early week rise coincided with the Venus-Jupiter aspect. This week looks very bullish as Mercury will form a trine aspect with the natal Venus while it moves into the sweet spot of the 9th house. Some declines are more likely Thursday and Friday when the Sun forms a t-square with natal Mercury and Jupiter and falls under the aspect of natal Ketu. While these are indicative of difficulties, they are less clearly bearish than last week’s aspects. The Indian Rupee was lower last week as it closed at 47.4. I had thought it would lose more ground to the dollar, but it has proven to be quite resilient here. It is likely to strengthen this week back towards 47.

Dollar

5-day outlook   — bearish
30-day outlook — bullish
90-day outlook — neutral – bullish
1 year outlook  — neutral

The rally in crude continued last week as it closed above $68. While I had anticipated the early week rise on the Venus-Jupiter aspect, the late week strength was surprising, especially since crude managed to trade over $70 on the continuous contract. Thursday’s rise followed the Venus aspect to the natal Ketu aspect and this offset the negativity of the otherwise harsh Mars to Saturn aspect. While it lost a bit of ground Friday, the lack of a significant pullback on the Sun-Saturn aspect was disappointing.

This week looks generally bullish in the early going as Venus aspects Pluto and Mercury moves into aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune aspect. If Monday is positive, a close over $70-72 by Wednesday is very possible here. But once Mercury moves out of range, crude will be susceptible to correction later in the week. More gains are likely early next week (June 15-19) with the Sun-Jupiter-Neptune aspect but some consolidation may follow on the Venus-Mars conjunction. Prices are likely to rise further in the summer. Picking price targets is difficult, but $80 seems possible over the coming weeks.

5-day outlook   — bullish
30-day outlook — neutral — bullish
90-day outlook — bullish
1-year outlook   — neutral