Forecasts March 2007 - March 2008

March 30, 2008 Weekly Forecast

 

 

March 23 2008 Weekly Forecast

The NYSE is coming off a life-saving rally last week. This week will be a crucial opportunity for a respite with recent nervousness. Certainly, there are some nice planetary configurations to factor in, particularly the equal degree alignment between Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and Uranus. While this is a fairly rare occurrence, I don't think it will result in a big gain. That's partially due to a fairly bearish-looking March 21 Full Moon that featured an ascendant hemmed in between Mars and Saturn/Ketu. We will have days with large rises, probably on Tuesday and to a lesser extent on Thursday. But the overall market will remain mixed and I believe we will close Friday within 1% of our present levels, probably on the downside. I will make some revised daily forecasts through the week.

Monday looks modestly negative (<1%) as the Moon is in Rahu/Saturn at the open. If the market drops more than 1%, the week will be worse than I thought. Tuesday appears to be the best day (+2%) as the Moon is in Jupiter's nakshatra while completing that upbeat configuration of aforementioned planets. Look for the rally to fade in the afternoon after perfection of the lunar aspect. Wednesday looks like the worst day (-2%) as the Moon is in Saturn/Mercury and squares the Saturn-Nodes. Thursday's Moon is in Mercury's star while the planet of trading enjoys a strong placement. I'm expecting at least a rise of 1%. Friday looks modestly negative as the Moon transits Mercury-Saturn. There is a chance for a larger loss here of perhaps 2% but more likely it will be held to 1% on late buying.

Tokyo will likely track higher this week as the Full Moon showed a clustering of benefics around the ascendant. The Nikkei starts the week at 12,482 and we may see 13k at some point. Monday looks good. Wednesday appears to be the best day, with gains over 2% possible. Friday may be negative as the Moon enters the 6th house of the TSE chart.

Bombay starts the week at 14,994 and will likely end the week in negative territory reinforcing the bearishness. The Full Moon occurred opposite the natal Saturn in the BSE chart and the transiting Sun is between the natal Saturn-Ketu conjunction. Things may get grim here, and we may go below 14,000k at some point. Thursday looks worst.

After the more modest rate cut and revival of confidence in the US dollar, a lot of investors cut their inflation hedge instruments and got out of gold, oil and the Euro. As a result, the Euro fell back under $1.55. I think it's due to rise again this week back near its recent highs, perhaps to $1.57 or $1.58. We are likely looking at an up week here, with real strength towards the end of the week. $1.60 is very possible. The following week also looks bullish for the Euro, even if other commodities continue to weaken.

Opening the week at $101, Oil looks like it will continue to weaken this week. We may go lower than $98. Thursday looks like a gain as the Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. Friday looks bearish.

Gold looks like it may be in better shape this week to rise above its $920 open, although it's not likely to resume its frenetic bull run for a little while, perhaps in May or June. Monday looks like a gain, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday also has the potential to move up, although things may get shaky after that. Overall, I think we'll end the week lower, but the declines will be more orderly suggesting a consolidation near $850-900 may be taking place. We may test below $900 at some point.

 

 

March 16 2008 Weekly Forecast

NY starts the week at 11,951/1288. This looks like another negative week upcoming as a number of hard aspects are perfecting. In the background there is the promise of some upside as a harmonically favourable relationship between Jupiter and Uranus is forming. I still think this has another week to go before we see any big upwards movement from it, however. Monday should decline by at least 1% as Mercury opposes Saturn. Friday also looks quite bearish. I think we'll see new intraday and closing lows (below 11,500/1270) at some point in NY in the week, possibly as low as 11,250/1250.

Tokyo and Bombay will follow suit . The Nikkei starts at 12,241 and is already down below 12k in early Monday trading. I think we'll see a range from 12,500 to 11,400 during the week and it will close below 12k by Friday. The Sensex opens at 15,760 Monday and will likely finish below that level by Friday, possibly near 15k. A range between 16,200 and 14,500 is possible.

The Euro continues on its bull run this week and into the Spring. Monday and Tuesday look fantastic and we should see at least a 2 cent gain in those days, perhaps getting us as high as 1.60 by week's end. We are in good position to ride the Euro significantly higher by May.

Oil is due for a pullback this week as tr Sun squares Ketu and Neptune while Mercury and Venus square Uranus-Jupiter. While some new intraday highs above $111 are possible, I think the safer bet is the downside, perhaps as low as $105. And given the recent speculative volatility of this market, I would not be surprised to see crude to fall below that.

Gold is shining brightly this week and will add to last week's historic gains. While we may see lows in the $990 range, it will close above $1010 by Friday, probably at least $1020-1030.

 

March 9 2008 Weekly Forecast

In keeping with our previous forecast, American markets turned bearish last week as key indexes broke through their previous January lows. This week is likely to be similarly negative with serious retesting of the Jan 22 intraday lows (11,500/1270). I expect to the market to break through those levels at least on an intraday basis. Thursday may be decidedly negative as the transiting Sun opposes the natal Mars of the NYSE chart. Friday's close also looks like a decline so we should finish lower than Monday's open. The week after next (esp Monday the 17th) looks more negative so investors looking for exitable rallies would do well to act this week or wait a couple more weeks. That said, I think we won't see 13,000/1420 for many months, or perhaps even next year.

Bombay and Tokyo are also coming off tough weeks. The Sensex is unlikely to experience any great recovery this week. In fact, I think we'll end up lower than where we started at 15,975. Tuesday looks like the most bullish day. Starting the week at 12,782, the Nikkei will also retest lows this week given the transiting Saturn square to the natal Venus in the TSE chart. Rallies will be weak and may not go much above 13,000, while the intraday downside may see 12,000.

The decline in the US dollar and the rise in the Euro will continue, although I think the gains may be more modest this week. Monday looks mostly negative, perhaps will dips near 1.525. The rest of the week seems stronger overall with a rise into Friday. Next week looks like there will be more upside beyond 1.55.

Oil is likely to continue higher. Monday may be negative, but the upward trend with resume on Tuesday. We may see $110 at some point this week. Thursday looks like a big gain.

Gold starts the week at $972 and is poised to hit $1000 and yet I'm questioning my faith that it will break through this week. Monday looks the most volatile but I'm not certain if the market will stay positive. A decline for Tuesday seems likely. Wednesday looks strongest. Retracement is likely for Thursday with Friday as an up day that may take us over the top. We should end the week higher than where we started.

March 2 2008 Weekly Forecast

Equity markets are probably headed lower this week. The question is: will they break through support levels? My initial reading of the charts says yes, although things will be clearer by midweek. The end of the week looks most negative, so if we can get some up days in the early part of the week, then the indexes may not break decisively through. In NY, I do think we'll end up lower than where we start (12,266 on the Dow and 1330 on the S&P), but possibly not by much. Right now, I'd say we have a greater than 50% chance of breaking down below 12,000/1320 at least on an intraday basis. Nonetheless, any rallies to 12,500/1360 that may occur early on should be seen as exit points from the market. Venus and Mercury will oppose the natal Uranus in the NYSE chart through much of the week, so expect a lot of volatility.

Tokyo and Bombay's BSE are also headed lower from their present levels. The Nikkei may fare better of the two, although it will seriously retest its January low of 12,572. The Sensex will probably drop below its previous February low of 16,600, especially by Thursday as Mercury and Venus oppose the natal Mars in the BSE chart. It has the potential to be a fairly nasty time with daily declines on the order of 3-5%.

Gold, oil and the Euro will continue on their bullish trends although not as strongly or consistently as in the past couple weeks. The Euro will continue strong but later in the week beginning Wednesday there will be significant declines, perhaps back to 1.51 or lower. Monday and Tuesday will not see any major selloffs. As we said last week, gold is a good bet to move past $1000 this week. Oil is vulnerable to declines this week, so rallies beyond $102 will not likely not last. I think we'll see oil back under $100 for at least intermittently through the week and by the close Friday.

I will post some more time-specific revised forecasts in my commentary through the week.

 

February 24, 2008 Weekly Forecast

American markets have been trading within a fairly narrow range for the past few weeks. This will continue this week. The best days will probably be Monday and Tuesday where may see 12,600 on the Dow and 1380 on the S&P on an intraday basis. The mood will turn negative on Wednesday and Thursday as the market will retreat back to those old familiar support levels we saw tested last week. Friday should start with a good rally as the Moon is in good aspect to Jupiter, but the indicators are mixed to negative after that, so short term traders would be advised to sell while the market is rising in the morning. Overall, I think the market will finish close to where it started the week (12,381/1353) but I think we're more likely to finish higher.

Tokyo will probably end the week a little lower. Monday looks positive, as does Friday, but in between we will see some declines. The Wednesday open stands out as a substantial sell-off. Overall, we are likely to see a retesting of 13,000 on the Nikkei but may finish in the 13,300 to 13,600 range.

Bombay's best days of the week will also likely be Monday and Friday, but it will be tough sledding to keep the Sensex above its current level of 17,369 by Friday. Probably we will finish below that level around 17,000. The best chance for a midweek rally is Wednesday, although this will lose some strength at the close. Thursday's close will likely be negative as Moon squares Saturn.

The Euro will likely continue its rally this week and finish above its current levels of 1.485. It will go above 1.49 at some point and may even touch 1.495, although it may occasionally slip below 1.48. Look for a sell-off Monday at midday CET as the Moon aspects Saturn. The best rally of the week will probably be Wednesday late afternoon CET.

Oil will likely push through $100 again this week, but this time it will probably hold above that psychological threshold. Prices will retreat Monday morning EST, but then move higher from there. Thursday looks like a day of consolidation with the rally resuming Friday.

Gold is rallying lately but I think sentiment will turn more cautious this week. The best rallies are likely Monday or Tuesday, both early in the day EST. We will probably close about $950 on one or both of those days. But the rest of the week looks less optimistic, so I think we'll probably finish the week below $940.

February 17, 2008 Weekly Forecast

Last week we successfully called the up week for the American markets. This week looks more iffy though, so I think the market will struggle to maintain its current levels of Dow 12,348 and S&P 1349. It will may drop below support levels of 12,200 and 1320 on an intraday basis early in the week. Monday afternoon looks bad, but Wednesday at midday looks good and this may signal a reverse of market sentiment for the rest of the week. I'm less certain about the final levels of the NY market this week, but going out on a limb, I would say that they will finish up, perhaps making it to13,500 on the Dow and 1360 on the S&P.

Tokyo is coming off a decent week as forecasted here when it finished at 13,622. I'm less sanguine about the NIKKEI this week however as the Sun-Saturn opposition will fall very close to the Asc-Dsc of the Topix index chart while Sun will oppose the natal Saturn in the TSE chart. But there is a battle here since Venus will conjoin the natal Jupiter at the same time, on Feb 19-20. My sense is the negativity of the Sun-Saturn will push the market down on Monday and Tuesday, but on Wednesday, the market will recover. So we'll probably drop back to 13,000 early on, and then recover and perhaps exceed 13,600 by week's end. Friday looks good, so we will probably finish higher than last Friday's close. This chart is not looking good for May however, as Saturn will station on its natal position. Be afraid, be very afraid.

Bombay's SENSEX was up last week, and finished at 18,115. The good times will likely continue through this week, although early in the week looks more tentative. Tuesday could be a down day however, as a decline will hit the market in the afternoon IST. Thursday and Friday look better, and we may see the index climb past 19,000. Monday and Tuesday of the following week will see big up days so staying long over the weekend will likely pay off handsomely.

The Euro is coming off its best week in months. I expect it to drop significantly Monday, maybe back to 1.46 as the US dollar will strengthen to 0.685. But the basic trend will be upwards this week. If buying on dips, another drop is likely Wednesday morning EST. The high will occur on Friday, although I don't see it eclipsing last Friday's high of 1.4685 by much. I think the medium term rally is still in place for the Euro at least until April 5 (to 1.50?), after which a major decline is likely.

Gold is probably going to start the week slowly. Some pullbacks below $900 are likely, especially in Asia Monday morning (local time) and Tuesday morning in NY. Venus will be square natal Uranus on Tuesday, so that points to a volatile price that may enjoy short but ultimately weak rallies that do not hold. Prices will rise by Thursday, however, so that should put us convincingly over $900 and probably back approaching $920 by Friday. It could even go higher, so the trend is your friend. Look for the week's high to occur midday Friday in New York EST. The week after looks even better.

Oil is likely to continue its recent upward climb this week. Mercury is stationing at the Sun-Jupiter midpoint while Jupiter will trine the natal Venus exactly this week. The biggest price rise will probably happen on Tuesday morning EST. We may see oil go past $97 a barrel then. Wednesday will see a pullback, probably back close below $95. Look for a higher short term peak early in the following week on Feb 25-26. $100 is very possible in the next two weeks.

 

February 10 2008 Weekly Forecast

We did well last week as markets retreated back near their support levels as forecast. The Dow finished slightly under our target of 12,200-12,400 and the S&P was within range as it closed at 1331. The markets aren't likely to breakout of their current range this week. In New York, the early part of the week looks uncommitted, with minimal testing on the downside and modest rally attempts. I don't foresee the indices falling through current support levels, however. Expect to see a decent rally near the close Monday. With a broader rally starting by late Wednesday or early Thursday, we may see highs above 12,500 on the Dow and perhaps 1360-1380 on the S&P. I am forecasting a generally up week.

The Japanese market looks pretty uninspired this week, although Thursday and Friday should see some gains as tr. Venus conjoins the natal Moon and trines Jupiter. But the general planetary architecture suggests any rallies won't get too far. I expect the market to move between 12.8K and 13.5K with the latter figure representing a target for the Friday close. Next week's Mercury station squares the natal Saturn in the natal chart, so we can look for lows to punch through the 13K support level then and test the January lows of 12.6K.

Bombay will follow the basic trend of negative to even start to the week (Monday looks the worst) and then look for an move upward Wednesday by midday. Thursday looks positive with a possibility of some profit taking Friday.

The Euro will start the week continuing its recent fall against the greenback. It may fall as low as 1.44. Wednesday there will be a turnaround rally that stretches into Thursday, so we can expect to see it back above 1.45 at least. Thursday morning EST appears to be a high. Friday may be a day of consolidation.

Gold will open the week strong with a decent gain as Venus returns to its natal position. But the rest of week looks indifferent with tr. Mercury falling under Ketu's aspect, so a pullback to $900 is possible.

 

February 3 2008 Weekly Forecast

 

I'm happy to say that last week went more or less according to plan. I thought the markets would end higher and they did, by about 5%. The best weekly performance in several years. The Dow started the week at 12,200 and ended at 12,750. I had forecast at least 12,500 and possibly hitting 12,800. I was somewhat off in my day timing however, since I thought Wed and Thur would be the nice gains. As it was, the gains came Thurs and Fri. Monday was also a good up day. My call on the Euro was broadly correct since it was largely up against the US dollar although it did finish lower on Friday as forecast at 1.48. This was a little higher than I thought since I had thought it would settle back to 1.475. But at least I got the direction right.

This week will be more tentative all around. I do not expect the Dow to maintain this level (12,850) by Friday as the negative indicators outnumber the positive. There will probably be an intraday retesting of last week's levels at 12,200 (1320 on the S&P) and a down mood will predominate. Monday the 4th afternoon looks negative, while Wednesday and Thursday (6th and 7th) look very volatile and largely negative as transiting Sun and Mercury oppose the natal Uranus and Ascendant in the NYSE chart. Look for greater than 1% declines, especially on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon will probably be less of a decline as there will be a substantial rally in the afternoon. There should be a rally Friday morning but it likely won't hold and the averages will probably finish in the red that day. We'll be lucky to finish the week above 12,500. I think a more realistic target will be near 12,200-12,400 and 1320-1340 on the S&P.

Tokyo by contrast looks neutral to bullish this week. Monday (4th) looks positive, and Wednesday (6th) looks like a solid up day, too, although the market is likely to finish with a loss on Friday(8th). Still, it should be in the green overall. Bombay looks slightly bullish as it starts with a strong Monday (4th). Wednesday afternoon looks negative though as Moon is aspected by Rahu. The negative sentiment will carry through Thursday (7th) with a down day. Friday will be an up day that should put the Sensex in positive territory for the week. We'll see how far above water it can remain.

The Euro looks mildly bearish this week but look for short term highs Tuesday morning local time as Moon conjoins the natal Venus. Thursday afternoon looks rough. It will probably fall back below 1.47 and finish the week near that level.

Gold looks slightly bearish this week. It might slip below $900 this week and may even finish below. But it does not look like another major downward leg. Watch for short term lows Wednesday a.m EST (6th) as the Moon falls under the spell of Ketu for a while. There ought to be a nice finish to the week with a big price rise Friday afternoon EST. It may even push back above $900 or perhaps even $910.

 

January 27 2008 Weekly Forecast

Although the Dow did break below 12,000, last week was much better than many had feared thanks to an emergency rate cut from the Fed. That said, the market had largely stabilized by the end of the week and a short term bottom has formed around 12,000. This is largely in keeping with my preceding forecast. The Rahu effect on the transiting Sun was also keenly felt as predicted as the market fell almost 200 points on Friday. While the market may test the 12,000 support level on an intraday basis in the next week, I think the movement will be mostly on the upside in the coming days. The main aspect pushing it upwards is the applying conjunction of Venus and Jupiter. It is important to note, however, that prices will be bullish because of where they fall in the natal chart of the NYSE. They will exactly trining the close natal Venus-MC conjunction. This trine aspect becomes exact on the 30th and 31st (Wed and Thurs) and we should see the Dow rise significantly, probably past 12,500 and perhaps pushing towards 12,800. Watch for a decline Friday morning on profit taking. Markets worldwide will follow this basic pattern for the most part. The Tokyo stock exchange chart is similarly oriented to move higher in the middle of the week. The Euro will start the week falling against the US dollar but will rally by Tuesday or Thursday as the Euro chart also benefits from the Venus-Jupiter conjunction. Expect high trading volumes and extreme volatility mid-week as the now retrograde Mercury sits on natal Ketu(SN). This creates a schizophrenic market that can quickly oscillate between upward and downward movements. Given the turbulence, the mid-week rally may attempt the 1.475 level but it's unlikely to be there by Friday. The Euro will strengthen through February and March. Look for a high in the first week of April.

 

January 21 2008 Weekly Forecast

 

With global markets dropping on average 5% today, we can look for the Dow to break decisively through the 12,000 support level on Tuesday. It comes as no surprise given our bearish prediction for January (see Jan 7 Update below) Perhaps the size of the drop is a little shocking, but we can see how our key indicators have correctly forecast the current meltdown. The NYSE chart is running Saturn-Sun, with the Sun coming under Ketu's malefic aspect in the natal chart. That creates the possibility of weakness that can be exploited by stressful transits and progressions. The transiting nodes are currently squaring natal Mercury creating great instability in trading. The afflictions in the secondary progressed chart we are entering a serious bear market owing to the simultaneous perfection of P2 Venus square P2 Neptune and P2 Asc conjunct P2 Pluto square P2 Jupiter. Since we have to allow for some orb on these aspects, we have to apply them to a time frame of up to two years. A more precise timing of this decline can be seen in the tertiary progressed chart which features P3 Mercury retrograde station occurring square P3 Saturn within one degree (exact November 07) while P3 Mars squares P3 Neptune on the Descendant (exact April 08). Clearly this decline will be sizable and take us out of the realm of a correction and put us into a bear market territory.

I think we will likely see a short term bottom this week, although watch for increased volatility and new lows Thursday and Friday as the Sun falls under trinal aspect of natal Rahu. I am looking for some rallies in Feb and March and beyond, especially as P4 Sun trines P4 Jupiter (Mar 17) and P4 Venus trines P4 Pluto (Apr 12). I expect January lows to be re-tested during the period of late April and May as the antardasha period switches to the Moon, and Ketu aspects it closely while Saturn retrogrades back towards a close square to the Sun. It's not going to be pretty, folks. Look for new lows for the year to be set then.

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NYSE Composite with transits 1/7/08Jan 7 2008 Forecast Update The markets have sagged in the past month on continuing credit crunch fallout, rising oil prices and subsequent inflationary fears, and the prospect of a full-blown recession. I think the Dow is likely to be weak or decline through January, but then move up in February as Saturn separates from the Mercury in the NYSE chart. The upward trend in prices should continue until April, or perhaps May. A sudden and sharp fall (>10%) will likely occur then and break the prevailing upbeat mood on Wall St. Look for more frequent updates here as we head through this turbulent period.

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Aug 20 2007 Forecast Update

The markets have corrected by more than 10% as a result of the US credit crunch in the past few weeks. I originally had forecast a rally in the summer that would last into the beginning of August after which we would see declines. (see below). This was a little off in terms of timing, since the high occurred in July, but it is significant that most of the decline did occur after the Jupiter station of August 6th, as I previously forecast. There may be some minor rallies in the next week before the total Lunar Eclipse of Aug 28th, but it is doubtful that it will be sustainable. Look for volatility and some triple digit losses in early Sept. I believe we have already seen the market highs for the year, although there is a possibility of other rallies in September and October that might come close. November and December look bearish, so investors would do well to consider these buying opportunities. I expect a significant market run-up in early 2008 leading into the Spring.

 

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Mar 22 2007 Forecast Update

Markets around the world started 2007 on a cautious note as January's new highs were erased after markets caught the Shanghai flu. Most markets are off their highs at the time of writing (late March). The outlook remains mixed at best for the rest of the year, with a greater risk of larger declines going into the Fall. Based on my analysis of the relevant horoscopes, this year is likely to yield poor returns to investors.

 

For the US markets, the chart I like to use is the NYSE Composite Index chart (launched May 6 1982 10.00 am). While the New York Stock Exchange famously began on Wall Street under a buttonwood tree on the morning of May 17 1792, the actual time is a matter of some debate. And once you factor in numerous re-incorporations of the exchange over the years, you increase the margin of error well above and beyond whatever ever significant amout of error already exists in astrology, to say nothing of my interpretation of it.

 

NYSE Composite chart with transits for May 1, 2007In a nutshell, the February-March decline can be blamed on two afflictions to the Sun in the natal chart from Saturn and Ketu. The approaching square from transit Saturn to the Sun will tend to depress prices until it begins forward motion at the end of April. The Sun is doubly important to this chart because it is placed in the 11th house of gains. The exact trine from Ketu represents another layer of affliction to the Sun around that time and explains the relatively unenthusiastic snapback of the New York markets in the wake of the initial sell-off. Attempts at rallies probably won't get very far as the mood will be tentative.

 

A significant summer rally is likely as Jupiter stations making a fairly close aspect to Mercury. It's still three degrees off so it's unlikely to be that strong, but it will probably represent a notable shift in investor sentiment towards optimism -- at least for a while. Once Jupiter turns direct on August 7th, however, the market will again be susceptible to declines. At this time, the nodes will station in a tight square to Mercury which also happens to be the bhukti lord so the medium term and 2007 market top will likely happen before the Fall.

NYSE Composite with transits for October 1, 2007The real troubles will appear in the Fall, especially once the Ketu bhukti has begun on October 1st. At this time, Ketu will still be in square aspect to Mercury (trading) and Saturn will have moved to join Ketu in mid-Leo to form its most malefic 10th house aspect. This period will see substantial losses that will likely erase whatever gains had accrued thus far in the year. I also don't see enough positive configurations that would point to a powerful Santa Claus rally. Overall, the index is most likely to close lower (perhaps a lot lower) on December 31, 2007 than it was on January 1, 2007.

 

TSE Topix Index chart with transits for Oct 1, 2007 Japanese Stocks

The likelihood of a substantial (i.e. >10%) worldwide market decline in the Fall 2007 is supported by an analysis of the Japanese stock market. Using the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Topix index launch date (July 1, 1969 9.00 am), we can see that powerful Saturn-Ketu conjunction sitting atop the Ascendant of this chart. Hard to see anything bullish coming of that combination unless you're long in Eli Lilly. This chart is running the Rahu-Mars period which isn't anything to write home about either. In January 2008, however, Jupiter dasha begins which signals an improvement in sentiment and hopefully higher prices in the long term.

 

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