New York stocks make new highs
Week of August 24 - 28
Stocks in New York made new highs for 2009 last week as improving housing data supplied the hope necessary to extend the summer rally. After Monday's sharp decline, stocks rebounded and ended 2% to the good with the Dow closing at 9505 and the S&P at 1026. While I have a pessimistic view of stocks right now, this outcome was not that far out of line with last week's forecast -- at least in terms of ebb and flow. Monday's pullback came right on schedule with the Mercury-Saturn conjunction, even if it was fairly mild, at least in the US. I had also suggested that some gains were likely Wednesday through Friday as Mercury and Venus were involved with better planetary company. This bullish script also played out more or less as rehearsed as stocks went straight up after Monday. There was a somewhat different story in Mumbai as stocks fell over 1% for the week, although the basic trends were the same. Monday's decline was steeper (5%) and hence that perhaps better captured the extent of bearishness I was expecting. The rebound was also somewhat more muted especially since Wednesday ended down. Thursday and Friday were positive though so that was solid evidence for the benefic effects of Mercury and Venus.
The planetary focus this week is a fairly rare and powerful four planet alignment involving Mercury, Mars, Pluto, and Rahu. All these planets will be a 6 degrees of their respective signs and will therefore be in mutual harmonic resonance. In addition, Mercury falls under the full strength aspect of malefic Mars and disruptive Rahu. On paper, it's a rogue's gallery of planetary evil-doers all ganging up on Mercury, the quintessential innocent bystander and has all the makings of a bear party for all markets, including oil and especially gold. Since Mercury is slowing down in advance of its retrograde cycle, this alignment could conceivably kick-in at any time in the week, although the early to midweek may be more likely. One interesting twist here is that Venus will conjoin Ketu on Wednesday and this bullish influence could be enough to interrupt the bear party, if only for a few hours. Later in the week, Pluto and Rahu get left behind and Venus moves into the picture, so there may be more opportunity for the bulls to run again then.
Despite these new highs, it's hard to come up with too many more bullish planetary patterns in the coming weeks. Sure, there are a smattering of a fairly good aspect late this week and a potentially significant two-day multi-aspect next week, but these little pools of hope are fast petering out and there will soon be no more oases for the bulls to feed on. And with fewer good aspects and an increasing number of bad aspects, the market will soon begin to fall.
Stocks in holding pattern in advance of important planetary configuration
Week of August 17 - 21
Stocks in New York finished slightly lower last week as disappointing retail sales weighed against improved industrial production data. After trading at key resistance levels on Thursday, the Dow closed at 9321 and the S&P at 1004. Meanwhile, Indian shares managed to move modestly higher after hitting midweek lows of 4400 on the Nifty. While still significantly below recent highs, the Nifty closed at 4580 and the Sensex at 15,411. This middling sort of outcome was more or less in line with expectations as the early week declines on the Mars-Saturn square were offset by the Sun-Mars-Jupiter alignment on Wednesday and Thursday. As is often the case, Friday's decline in New York came on the heels of this positive aspect and was not unduly surprising, particularly since our outlook is generally bearish here.
This week promises to be even more volatile as there are two very potent multi-planet alignments that form exact angles early on. Monday will feature an apparently bearish Mercury-Saturn conjunction at 27 Leo. Generally speaking Saturn contacts are considered bad news for stocks and this one is perhaps more likely to signal a retreat because Jupiter is also involved. Jupiter (27 Capricorn) sits in a tense 6/8 quincunx aspect with this conjunction and that would appear to bode poorly for markets this week. In addition, no less than four planets -- Sun, Mars, Uranus and Neptune -- are all placed at 1 degree of their respective signs Monday and Tuesday. This adds a lot of planetary fuel to the mix and could magnify any moves this week. The most likely scenario here would appear to be early week decline -- possibly a steep one -- followed by a recovery later as Venus forms a minor aspect with Jupiter on Wednesday and Thursday. Mercury's opposition to Uranus on Friday also has the potential to lift stocks, but perhaps only if we've seen real damage inflicted earlier in the week from the Mercury-Saturn aspect. The negative payload of these planets have to be released first before more positive energies can be expressed.
With Saturn approaching its opposition aspect with Uranus in September, it's very hard to imagine the market going anywhere but down. The more important matter therefore concerns how low could this retracement might go. Given all the tense aspects between now and November and the relative absence of positive ones, it seems that this decline may be much bigger than a garden variety correction.
Prepare the lifeboats.
US market extends rally on Mercury-Venus; Mumbai falls
Week of August 10-14
Stocks powered higher in New York last week on better than expected employment data. Despite some midweek profit taking, the Dow rose 2% to close at 9370 while the S&P finished near a key resistance level of 1010, which was the post-crash November 2008 high. This bullish outcome was more or less in keeping with my forecast last week as the Mercury-Venus aspect provided sufficient optimism to encourage risk takers. More specifically, Monday was up as expected but Thursday's anticipated gain arrived late as markets only rose Friday. In Mumbai, worries over the monsoon trumped global cues as the indexes fell 3-4%. After some early week strength that retested key resistance levels at 4700, the Nifty ended the week at 4481 while the Sensex stood at 15,160. So we did see more upside as forecast although the gains did not hold. Interestingly Thursday was higher intraday but gains disappeared by the close. This was perhaps an instance of a generally favourable transit aspect between Mercury (12 Leo) and Venus (12 Gemini) feeding into the stressful natal position of Saturn (12 Aquarius) to produce a decline instead of a rise.
Now that the triple eclipse series is behind us, we should look at this stock rally as living on borrowed time. The eclipses have lit the fuses and started the timer so it's now only a matter of the right triggering planets coming together to release the explosive bearish energy and push prices down. This week features a couple of very strong aspects which have the potential to move markets in both directions. Mars squares Saturn on Monday but this 90 degree relationship is arguably more effective since they mutually aspect one another according to classical Hindu aspecting rules. Mars casts its 4th house square aspect forward to Saturn and Saturn casts its 10th house square aspect to Mars. Since both planets are malefic, there is a probability for negative fallout here. However, as the week progresses Mars will be influenced by Jupiter's benefic rays so that could change sentiment considerably. This is all the more likely given that the Sun will be part of this multi-planet alignment.
Caveat emptor has never been better advice.
Stocks move higher on Mercury-Jupiter; Lunar Eclipse due this week
Week of August 3 - 7
Stocks continued their drift upward last week on better than expected Q2 GDP data in the US. After some midweek bearishness, the Dow closed Friday at 9171 while the S&P stood at 987. In Mumbai, the Sensex touched a 13-month high intraday on Thursday before closing at 15,670 while the Nifty ended the week at 4636. This bullish outcome was mostly in keeping with expectations as the quick succession of Venus and Mercury aspects with Jupiter provided enough optimism to move markets higher. Monday's Mercury-Saturn aspect largely offset the Venus-Jupiter trine as stocks treaded water. As I expected, there was more selling Tuesday and Wednesday in the "hangover" aftermath of that positive configuration. The Mercury-Jupiter aspect on Wednesday and Thursday arrived more or less on schedule, although Wednesday was mostly down. Friday did not see any big declines despite retrograde Jupiter entering sidereal Capricorn, although that is a longer term bearish influence that will be operating for the next several months.
This week we will see the third and last eclipse in this series as a lunar eclipse occurs on Wednesday (EDT) at 19 degrees of Capricorn. Eclipses mark periods of change and instability in the world and this eclipse seems to promise that and more. The previous solar eclipse featured a close Venus-Saturn square which, I argued, foretold of coming problems and losses (Saturn) with financial markets and money (Venus). Well, we will soon see if that interpretation will be borne out by events. This lunar eclipse also has a strong Saturn aspect, this time with Mars. And as (bad) luck would have it, it is also a tense square aspect within three degrees of orb. Mars-Saturn aspects can represent situations of violence, oppression, frustration, and destruction and in the present context may indicate growing geopolitical concerns that could involve military conflict in the coming weeks. On that point, we should note that President Obama's chart is also under a lot of stress in the coming weeks as Saturn and Mercury will conjoin atop his natal Mars. While this pattern may simply represent increased frustration and failure with his health plan reforms (polls indicate he's in trouble on that issue), the Mars factor here opens the possibility of some kind of military or geopolitical problem.
This week the market may well be able to stave off the bears for a little while longer as Mercury moves into aspect with Venus by Friday. We could see some sizable moves in both directions this week, with Monday and Thursday looking the most positive on paper. So I would not be surprised to see more upside here, although with the Mars-Saturn square due to come exact next Monday the 10th and the Mercury-Saturn conjunction on the 18th, all gains should be seen as very temporary indeed. Investors would be well advised to practice their best version of Buddhist non-attachment to any long positions before this rally falls apart.
As the man with the sandwich board sign tells us, the end is nigh.
Rally intact despite Solar Eclipse; Venus and Mercury next in line
Week of July 27 - 31
With the solar eclipse showing no immediate effects, markets continued their winning ways last week as stocks rose 4% on more good earnings reports. The Dow closed at 9093 while the S&P stood at 979. It was much the same story in Mumbai, as the Nifty climbed to 4568 and the Sensex to 15,378. While the eclipse correlated with modest declines Tuesday and Wednesday in India (but only Wednesday in New York), the apparently unstoppable ebullience highlighted the ongoing influence of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. While the late week gains fell in line with expectations for a bump up from the Sun-Moon parivartana yoga, I thought the eclipse might have claimed more victims. As I have previously noted, eclipses are not atomic clocks and cannot be relied upon to dictate market moves. They are probabilistic instruments not unlike road signs that notify the traveller of trouble ahead ("Construction Zone: next 10 miles"). Just when the trouble will manifest isn't always clear, but that Venus-Saturn square of July 22 does not portend a happy ending to this rally.
This week's planets would appear to offer more bullish fuel to investors as Venus forms an aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (and later Uranus, too) while Mercury follows suit Wednesday and Thursday. Monday's positive alignment has a large asterisk however, since Mercury is in a close minor alignment with Saturn and that has the power to take markets down on at least one day in the early going. Nonetheless, the balance of energy would seem to favour the bulls here as we can expect to see stocks to bounce back from any losses they might incur. This seemingly bottomless reservoir of well-meaning but ultimately deluded hope will likely also push oil and gold higher. In the wake of the positive Mercury-Jupiter aspect late week, there is increased risk of a hangover-like reaction that follows the completion of a triggering aspect by a fast moving planet (Venus, Mercury) to a larger configuration of slower moving planets such as Jupiter, Neptune and Uranus. In investment parlance, this reaction is known as profit-taking.
The planetary weather in August looks conducive to more gains on optimism over the prospects for recovery, at least at the outset. By month's end, however, the folly of our ways will be revealed.
Stocks rebound on Sun-Mercury conjunction
Week of July 20 -24
Stocks rallied strongly last week on positive US earnings reports and favourable economic data coming out of China. In New York, the Dow gained 7% to close at 8743 and the S&P finished at 940, as markets rose back towards their June highs. In Mumbai the rally was no less impressive as the Nifty gained 8% to end the week at 4374 while the Sensex once again pushed toward the 15k level as it closed at 14,744. Although I allowed for some up days on the Sun-Mercury conjunction, my forecast was far too bearish last week. Interestingly, the Mars-Rahu aspect did indeed push the market down Monday in Asia with recovery coming in the afternoon in New York as stocks moved higher on the Sun-Mercury conjunction in late sidereal Gemini. As it turned out, both the Mercury-Uranus aspect and the Sun-Jupiter aspect later in the week overwhelmed whatever bearishness was contained within Friday's Mercury-Ketu aspect as stocks moved higher. The bullish momentum from last week is perhaps an indicator of the resilience of the market here so there is likely a little more upside to come as we move into August before the status quo is upset. Jupiter enters sidereal Capricorn on July 31 where it will remain until December. As the planet of optimism and confidence, Jupiter will be weakened by its transit into the sign of its debilitation. This is another reason for being skeptical about the staying power of any rallies in this market.
And speaking of upsetting the status quo, this week features a total solar eclipse on Wednesday (GMT) which will be visible in central India and China. The eclipse will occur at the same time Venus (24 Taurus) is in square aspect to Saturn (24 Leo). This not only can create feelings of caution and pessimism (Saturn) around money (Venus) during the early and middle part of the week when the aspect is closest, it may also foretell a significant decline in the world economy in the weeks and months to come. Eclipse effects usually take days or weeks to manifest (and many astrologers would also say months in some cases), so that is an indicator that the optimism over the economic recovery may wane in the near future. As this lengthy Jupiter-Neptune conjunction finally separates, we will likely see a major decline in stock prices, starting sometime in August and continuing into the fall. In terms of other aspect specifics, Mercury and Mars form a minor aspect on Monday and Tuesday and this is another possible source of nervousness that could cause some investors to exit the market. Some bounce is more likely toward the end of the week on Thursday and Friday as the Moon enters Leo and forms a parivartana yoga with the Sun in Cancer while Venus applies to aspect Jupiter.
Markets continue decline as uncertain eclipse period takes hold
Week of July 13- 17
Markets fell across the board last week on fears that the much anticipated recovery may have to wait until next year . In New York, the selloff began in earnest on Tuesday's sharp loss, as stocks dropped over 2% on the week as the Dow closed at 8146 and the S&P at 879. In Mumbai, the damage was much worse, as investors were disappointed by Monday's budget that offered greater spending initiatives (and attendant high deficits) and little in the way of significant market reforms. Stocks fell 9% as the Nifty closed at 4003 and the Sensex at 13,504. This bearish outcome was largely in keeping with expectations as the selloff commenced with the exact alignment of Mars with Jupiter and Neptune within a day of the Full Moon. Thursday's Moon-Sun-Saturn alignment did broadly coincide with some modest gains as forecast, although they were not sufficient to break the negative trend for the week. The markets are now in full-blown correction mode as stocks search for a solid bottom.
With the approach of the total Solar Eclipse of July 21, we may continue to see the predominance of caution and pessimism. The key aspects this week suggest a mixed outcome with high volatility and a possible further downward bias. Monday will see the tail end of a very nasty Mars-Rahu-Pluto alignment that might be enough to push down markets in Asia, at least in the early going. Recovery seems more plausible later in the day and into Tuesday as the Sun will conjoin with a very strong Mercury in late sidereal Gemini. As the week progresses, we see Thursday's apparently positive Mercury-Uranus aspect that normally might push markets higher. But given Mercury's proximity to malefic Ketu, I am not confident that this aspect can produce gains. By Friday, Mercury will be almost fully in the clutches of Ketu (the South Lunar Node) and this is more likely to put a lot of pressure on investors (as represented by Mercury) as Ketu's penchant for otherworldliness and spiritual release could make the stock market into an unpopular place.
Stocks slide in New York on separating Mercury-Jupiter aspect
Week of July 6 - 10
Stocks in New York sold off sharply Thursday and ended down by more than 2% for the week. After approaching 8600 Wednesday, the Dow closed at 8280 while the S&P ended at 896. Mumbai ended a little higher on the week, mostly on the strength of some buying late Friday in anticipation of Monday's budget announcement. The Nifty closed at 4424 while the Sensex finished the week at 14,913. I had expected more of a rise last week given the Mercury-Venus-Jupiter-Neptune alignment so this outcome was somewhat surprising. It nonetheless provides a useful clue that the strength of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction may now be fading. I had thought we might see some weakness especially given the separation of the Mercury and Venus aspect to Jupiter after midweek and Thursday's sell off in New York coincided nicely with that phenomenon. India fared somewhat better although Thursday and much of Friday was fairly flat and uninspired. Interestingly, the rally in the last two hours of trading Friday occurred just as the Moon was moving into exact square aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Although the Moon was debilitated in Scorpio, aspects to benefics will often trump other considerations.
This week features a Full Moon on Tuesday at 21 Sagittarius which may incline markets towards caution especially earlier in the week. On Monday, Mars will be in alignment with the Jupiter-Neptune which may conceivably maintain the enthusiasm for stocks early but the separation of this aspect may bring out sellers in force later. The Full Moon occurs close to the Mars-Rahu aspect in the NSE chart so that increases the likelihood of a decline around that time. On a more positive note, there is a three-way Moon-Sun-Saturn aspect on Thursday that may also move the markets significantly. Since Saturn is in the Sun's sign of Leo, this Sun contact may possibly correspond with a rise. Transiting Venus will conjoin the ascendant of the S&P500 natal chart (11 Taurus) later in the week so that also bodes well for higher prices then.
Markets hold their ground
Week of June 29 - July 3
Stocks were mostly unchanged last week as the early selloff from the Venus-Mars-Saturn alignment was offset by late week strength on the Mercury-Saturn square aspect. In New York, the Dow closed at 8439 while the S&P ended at 918. In Mumbai, the Sensex ended Friday's session at 14,764 and the Nifty at 4375. I thought the market would be more negative here, mostly because I thought the Mercury-Saturn aspect would tend to encourage more selling. As it turned out, the Mercury-Saturn aspect on Thursday and Friday was a net positive for stocks, perhaps a reflection of the improved condition of Mercury's dispositor, Venus, which had just passed its conjunction with Mars.
This week looks more positive as benefics Mercury (1 Gemini) and Venus (1 Taurus) move into harmonic conjunction by midweek. What makes gains more likely is that this Mercury-Venus association will feed straight into the Jupiter-Neptune (2 Aquarius) conjunction. While some pullbacks are possible Monday or perhaps later in the week, some of this positive energy seems likely to predominate here. Even with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction now moving retrograde, this rally seems like it has further to go. The next exact conjunction of Jupiter and Neptune occurs Friday, July 10 and the current period is likely to provide support for current levels. After that, the solar eclipse of July 21 may signal a shift in energy that could interrupt the prevailing upward trend.
Markets move lower on Jupiter retrograde station
Week of June 22 - 26
Stocks lost ground around the world last week as prospects for recovery suffered on poor US housing data. In New York, the Dow closed down 3% at 8539 while the S&P finished at 921. Indian stocks also declined almost 5% as the Sensex ended Friday's trading at 14,521 and the Nifty at 4313. As if to underline the importance of Jupiter and the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction in this spring rally, stocks moved lower Monday the same day that Jupiter turned retrograde. As I noted last week, these retrograde stations can often coincide with market reversals and this one was a textbook case. I had thought we might see more upside midweek on the Sun-Jupiter aspect, but that was not enough to move markets higher. Mumbai only saw a gain Tuesday as well as a nice move higher right at the close Friday. The Venus-Mars conjunction did not coincide with much in the way of a correction, and indeed US stocks enjoyed a late week bounce.
This week has a good chance to start higher as Venus passes Mars on Monday. Monday will also feature the Gemini New Moon in close opposition to Pluto, so this may increase the size of the price move. The Pluto opposition often creates problems for government and authority, although this needn't have any immediate negative market consequences. As the Mercury square with Saturn tightens into a conjunction by Friday, the market may well turn bearish again and make the week negative overall. It will be interesting to watch how Jupiter's new retrograde condition will affect aspects involving faster moving planets. While still benefic and supportive of higher prices, we may find that an aspect with Jupiter doesn't produce the same kind of lift that we've seen in the past two to three months. Overall, I don't think this will be a huge pullback, especially in the US market, and next week we could well see more strength. Watch for gold to move higher early in the week but the rally should fade fairly quickly.
Stocks take a breather
Week of June 15 - 19
Stocks mostly treaded water last week on mixed bag of economic news. New York continued to trade well above its 200-day moving average, as the Dow closed Friday at 8799 while the S&P finished at 946. In Mumbai, losses in the beginning and end of the week offset midweek gains as the Nifty closed at 4583 and the Sensex at 15,237. This outcome was not unexpected, as I noted the possibility that the bullishness of Mercury-Jupiter-Neptune pattern could be counteracted by the negativity of the Mercury-Mars velocity equivalence. Interestingly, Mumbai's trading patterns seemed to bear more resemblance to the transit aspects as Tuesday and Wednesday did see a rise with selling late in the week. By contrast, New York saw some modest gains only late in the week, although they were large enough to change the basically uncommitted tone for the week.
With Jupiter turning retrograde Monday, we have another reason to consider the chances of significant correction across markets this week. When planets change their direction, markets can often mark a reversal in their direction. Given that markets have been generally rising lately, this Jupiter retrograde influence makes some kind of pullback somewhat more likely over the coming days. With the Sun moving into position with the bullish Jupiter-Neptune-Uranus alignment early and midweek, I would think that some gains are likely before any possible move lower. With Sun-Jupiter-Neptune lining up for the bulls this week, the bears can ponder the negative potential of benefic Venus coming in contact with malefic Mars by next weekend. Since aspects usually express their energy before forming an exact angle, one would think the days before the conjunction on Sunday, June 21 would be more prone to negativity. But perhaps the key word here is "usually".
Market continues in rally mode
Week of June 8 - 12
Stocks gained 3% last week to new 2009 highs on improved prospects for a quick recovery. Most of the week's gains came on Monday's session with some levelling off afterwards, as the Dow closed at 8763 and the S&P at 940. In Mumbai, anticipation of economic reforms in July's Union Budget helped push stocks higher as the Nifty closed at 4586 and the Sensex at 15,103. Much of the early week bullishness came off as expected on the Venus-Jupiter-Neptune alignment as benefic Venus was the trigger to release the optimism of Jupiter. The Mars-Rahu square could be implicated in Wednesday's decline, but the pullback was more muted than expected. And Friday's Sun-Saturn square was only malefic enough to force a mostly flat outcome. Even if Jupiter is now separating from Neptune, their proximity seems to be close enough to be overriding other potentially offsetting influences.
We can see a couple apparently positive aspects forming early this week. Venus trines Pluto on Monday, while Mercury moves into alignment with Jupiter, Neptune and Uranus on Tuesday and Wednesday. Of these two aspects, the Mercury would seem to be more reliable to produce an up day or two. Later in the week the picture gets murkier, although there are no clearly negative aspects. Nonetheless, if there is going to be profit taking this week, I think the late week is a better candidate. Another clue that we could see some kind of correction starting perhaps midweek and beyond is that Mercury and Mars will be moving at the same velocity -- 44 minutes of arc per day as of Wednesday. The malefic influence of Mars may be transmitted to the trading impulse of Mercury and push prices lower. The timing of this influence is fairly close to the Mercury-Jupiter- Neptune aspect, so it's conceivable that there will be some balancing out. And given the tenacious optimism of Jupiter and Neptune, it's hard to picture a big decline here, the separating aspect notwithstanding.
Market stays strong into Jupiter-Neptune conjunction
Week of June 1 - 5
Stocks resumed their winning ways last week on favourable GDP and consumer data. Markets in New York rose 3% as the Dow closed Friday at 8500 and the S&P at 919. Mumbai added another 5% as the Sensex ended the week at 14,625 and the Nifty at 4448. While this positive outcome did not come as a complete surprise given the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction on May 27 coincided with a potentially strong Mars activation, I had thought there might be a little more profit taking. We can take some solace in the fact that the ebb and flow of the market seemed to follow the planetary forecast as early and midweek declines occurred roughly near the Mars aspect and markets recovered strongly by week's end as Venus approached its aspect with Mercury.
This week may be more challenging since the malefic aspects appear to outnumber the benefic ones. Early in the week, Venus (2 Aries) will occupy the same place Mars did last week and thus increases the likelihood of a release of bullish energy contained in the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. It should be noted, however, that Jupiter is now moving past Neptune so the bullish effect of these planets of hopeful optimism may be slipping. Just how fast the power drains from this synergistic combination is uncertain, but we can wonder aloud here if the whole is no longer greater than the sum of its parts. By midweek we will see the malefics come to the fore as Mars squares Rahu and to make matters worse, this will be within range of Pluto's degree. These planets often symbolize excessive or even out of control energy that one finds in athletic competitions and violent or military conflicts. While it doesn't always correspond to bearishness, it probabilistically inclines the market to decline. (!) The end of the week also does not favour the bulls since the Sun squares Saturn. As we saw in April, these passing Saturn aspects don't always manifest when they "should" in terms of exactitude, but given the possible diminishing effect of Jupiter and Neptune now, it may be helpful to be aware of the extra negative potential here even if we don't act on it.
Jupiter stations on June 15 so that may coincide with a significant turning point since after that date, it will again be moving towards Neptune. If this recent two month rally can be attributed in part to the Jupiter-Neptune applying conjunction, then it's very possible that stocks will rise once Jupiter is again moving towards Neptune after the 15th. That said, Jupiter is not going to drift too far away from Neptune in terms of longitudinal arc (just 37 minutes), so we may be guilty of hair-splitting here. Nonetheless, the applying-separating dynamic is one of the few somewhat consistent principles of astrology. It's not a fool proof Newtonian law, but it works more times than it doesn't. In the world of astrology, that's about as good as it gets.
NY stocks steady; Mumbai celebrates
Week of May 25 - 29
Last week's market action reminds us of the importance of applying current transit positions to the relevant natal charts. Same transits -- very different results. In New York, markets were mostly unchanged as the Dow closed at 8277 and the S&P at 887. In Mumbai, a totally different story as stocks went into orbit on Monday after the surprisingly large election win by the Congress-led UPA which was announced over the weekend. Stocks rose 15% for the week with the Nifty finishing at 4238 and the Sensex at 13,887. The neutral New York outcome was largely in keeping with expectations although the gains arrived a little early with the Sun-Mercury conjunction at 3 Taurus. This was close enough to trigger the benefic energy contained in the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (2 Aquarius) and take markets higher, if only briefly after which the bears moved in the rest of the week. Mumbai took flight because the very same transit alignment was activating some extremely favourable natal placements in the NSE and Sensex charts. For more details on how this may have unfolded, please see the Mumbai's Magnificent Monday page.
This week features a couple of interesting aspects. Jupiter moves into exact conjunction with Neptune on Wednesday. While this is one of the key sources of bullish energy in these past two months, I'm less convinced that the exact conjunction can generate more gains. That's because slow moving planets usually require activation from past moving planets, as we saw from the Sun-Mercury conjunction last week. The Moon forms a trine aspect to this conjunction late Monday, so that could boost some world markets (US markets will be closed for Memorial Day) On Tuesday and Wednesday, we have another potential triggering planets as Mars (2 Aries) will move into an exact aspect with the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction. Unlike Mercury, Mars is a malefic planet so that increases the possibility that net effect may actually be negative. By Friday, Mercury will move into a close harmonic aspect with Venus so that may well provide some food for the bulls. So we have a very mixed picture this week with a real question about market direction. With the bearish Sun-Saturn square due next week, I'm inclined to think that US stocks will continue this phase of consolidation and retracement here. Indian stocks are perhaps somewhat better candidates for profit taking.
Stocks slide in advance of Saturn station
Week of May 18 -22
Stocks in New York pulled back off their highs last week as the likely prospect of the GM bankruptcy took a little wind out of the rally's sails. Overall the market lost 4% on lower volume as the Dow ended Friday at 8268 while the S&P stood at 882. Mumbai diverged from global patterns somewhat as Friday's gain pushed the market up 2% for the week. After repeatedly coming up against resistance at 3700, the Nifty closed at 3671 and the Sensex at 12,173. The Mercury-Mars-Saturn alignment did largely coincide with the early week slump although the timing of it was less than mathematical. With the larger losses confined to Monday and Wednesday, this midweek negative pattern did not quite release its energy like clockwork, but the correlation was still suggestive of a bearish exclamation point against the recent bullish backdrop. Some strength returned to the market late week as the Sun moved into Taurus and formed a plausibly positive pattern with Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune. Reflecting the ongoing strength of the Indian market, this produced a significant gain Friday whereas in New York Thursday's modest rise was followed by a tepid rise Friday morning. The rally failed by noon, however, as traders took profits ahead of the weekend and took the market lower into the close.
This week offers a mixed bag of short term planetary influences. On Monday, the Sun conjoins retrograde Mercury in early sidereal Taurus, while the Moon is in Aquarius opposite Saturn. The Moon-Saturn contact is a marginally negative pattern, while the Sun-Mercury combination is quite variable but can increase the size of a move, depending on which way the market is leaning. The Sun's influence on Mercury can be seen as negative since the Sun is a nominally malefic planet in the Vedic schema, and yet the Taurus placement is supported by virtue of the strength of dispositor Venus which is currently exalted in Pisces. But Venus is in an awkward quincunx aspect with Saturn, so that may make things more difficult. Of course, the outcomes of this pattern will vary depending on the relevant natal chart contacts. In Mumbai, a big rally is expected on the heels of a convincing election victory by the pro-market Congress party. Clearly, the Indian market has been outperforming most other world markets because the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction has been placed at a more positive place relative to the natal chart compared with US markets.
In the Sensex chart, for example. the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction occurs just three degrees from the ascendant. In New York, however, I would not be surprised to see some more weakness early on in the week as some natal support seems lacking. But Mercury will continue its retrograde path and form an apparently positive pattern with Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune midweek. Actually, Mercury will be in the same place (1 Taurus) that Sun occupied last Thursday and Friday when the market saw some strength. So some kind of gains are possible then. Later in the week may not be so favourable as the Sun comes under the aspect of Rahu. This isn't necessarily a bad aspect, but it opens up more uncertainty, and that may be problematic for investors seeking out long positions.
What is so interesting about the current alignment of planets in the sky right now is how exaggerated and overdetermined they all appear to be. There is a remarkably rare pattern that features a Jupiter-Neptune conjunction (2 Aquarius) that is taking place in near exact harmonic aspect with Uranus (2 Pisces). And if we want to throw in Chiron that is also at 2 Aquarius, we have an extremely infrequent pattern of bullish planets. It is no coincidence that we've seen the market rally as strongly as we have. But now May has seen Mercury turn retrograde and Saturn make its direct station, two decidedly negative influences which may force the market to pause before moving higher, at least in the US. This rare confluence of sharply good and bad factors has made prediction more difficult than usual (and it's never straightfoward), as the astrologer is confronted with equations for which there is no definitive solution, only interpretation and speculation.
Week of May 11 - 15
Stocks stayed in rally mode last week as the bank stress test results proved to be largely a non-event amidst a backdrop of promising economic data. In New York, stocks moved up to within a few percent of their January highs, as the Dow ended 4% to the good at 8574 while the S&P stood at 929. In Mumbai, equities continued to trade above their 200-day moving average and gained over 4% as the Nifty stood at 3620 and the Sensex at 11,876. The early week gains came off as expected on the bullish Venus-Ketu-Pluto configuration but the start of the Mercury retrograde cycle did not mark a significant sell off. While Mercury retrograde is normally a bearish influence, it does not function like a malefic aspect and therefore acts as a more general influence. So while I highlighted Mercury's bearish potential last week, I was not convinced that it would have enough negative energy to counteract the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction that has fueled much of this huge run-up in the past two months. The optimism (Jupiter) and hope and idealism (Neptune) embodied in these planets has allowed a growing number of investors to look past the negatives in the economy and the long term implications of the various bailout packages and focus on the "green shoots" and hints that financial stabilization is just around the corner.
This week features another potentially negative influence for the markets as Mercury, Mars, and Saturn form a potentially tense multi-planet aspect on Tuesday or Wednesday. Any contact between Mercury and either malefic, Mars or Saturn, has the potential to move markets lower and the co-presence of both malefics with Mercury is definitely worth paying attention to. However, these aspects are not full strength aspects so we need to be skeptical about their bearish potential. In addition, Friday's entry of the Sun in sidereal Taurus may well prop up the market further since it forms a multi-planet alignment with Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune. So even if we see some midweek selling, the end of week may see the bulls return in force. Likewise, I think there's a good chance crude will continue its winning ways, and gold also likely to stay strong here.
Saturday will see Saturn change direction from retrograde to direct so that may be a better indication of an impending reversal in the market. Readers will remember that the six-week rally off the November lows culminated in the first week of January, just a few days after Saturn changed direction and began its current retrograde cycle. Another instance of this phenomenon of planetary stations and market reversals occurred on October 11, 2007 when Mercury began its retrograde cycle, just days after world stock markets peaked. Similarly, in mid-May 2008, markets began a major down leg just one week before Mercury turned retrograde. While timing is often somewhat inexact, changes in direction of the planets can often correlate to changes in the direction of the market.
Week of May 4 - 8
After slumping early in the week, markets edged a little higher last week on some positive earnings news and the prospect of more economic 'green shoots'. In New York, stocks approached their February highs as the Dow closed at 8212 and the S&P at 877. Indian stocks were mostly unchanged last week, and did not participate in some of the late week advance due to a Thursday and Friday closing. Bullishly staying above their 200-day moving average, the Nifty finished Wednesday's session at 3473 and the Sensex at 11,403. The early week declines were very much expected in light of the malefic alignment of Mars-Ketu-Pluto, although the bearishness was fairly mild. The bounce later in the week coincided with Jupiter's ingress into sidereal Aquarius and the approach of Venus to the Ketu-Pluto configuration which was noted in last week's forecast.
This week's action may also be somewhat mixed at best as the early part of the week seems more positive as the Venus aspect comes exact on Monday. While some pullback is likely on either Tuesday or Wednesday, the latter part of the week may see the bears assert themselves more forcefully as Mercury turns retrograde on Thursday morning. Interestingly, the results of the banking stress test will be released on the same day. While we should be aware that Mercury may not exert its influence immediately, this coincidence would tend to indicate some second thoughts by some investors. Mercury's influence is a very important potential ingredient for any significant correction in this recent rally. There is no guarantee that Mercury's backwards cycle (May 7 -31) will push the market lower, but it definitely inclines the market to second guessing, non-committal sideways movement, and outright bearishness.
As we've seen over the past seven weeks, the approaching Jupiter-Neptune conjunction has created a very powerful reservoir of optimism and hope that has helped to move markets higher by 30% in a very short time. It will require a significant amount of negative planetary energy to offset this bullish alignment. Retrograde Mercury, even if it is afflicted by Rahu as it is this week, may not be enough in itself to force a major correction. For that reason, we may have to wait for some of that excess Saturn energy to seep into the collective consciousness once it turns direct on May 16.
Week of April 27 - May 1
Stocks in New York finished mostly unchanged last week as the rally showed signs of weakening. After trading as low as 7800 on Tuesday morning, the Dow bounced back and closed Friday at 8076 while the S&P ended at 866. The story was much the same in India, as the bulls returned late week to push the market higher by 3% as the Sensex closed at 11,329 and the Nifty at 3480. This outcome was not unexpected as the apparently bearish Mars-Venus conjunction early in the week did push down prices. The late week comeback was also more or less foretold in the Mercury-Jupiter aspect and later, the Mercury-Uranus aspect.
The planets this week looks similarly mixed. Mars comes under the aspect of Ketu on Monday and Tuesday and with Pluto thrown into the mix, it is hard to see much upside there. Alignments of three malefic planets have the potential to create a mood of frustration and irritation which could encourage a more bearish stance. The mood may shift rather quickly, however, when Venus replaces Mars in that alignment by Thursday and Friday. Pluto and Ketu are still malefics and therefore should be treated carefully, but Venus has the power to transform their energies into something positive. Also Jupiter enters sidereal Aquarius Thursday, so that is another potentially positive energy, particularly for the technology sector since it is governed by Aquarius. So I would not be surprised to see a significant bounce later on. Gold may also stand to gain in the next week or two here. Indian markets are closed for Thursday and Friday, so they may miss out on some of this benefic Venusian energy.
As we approach the Mercury retrograde cycle which starts May 6, markets seem vulnerable to pullbacks. The planetary situation is complicated by the existence of opposite energies. The Jupiter-Uranus-Neptune alignment is very positive, and even more so if we want to throw Chiron into the mix which is also conjunct Jupiter and Neptune in early sidereal Aquarius. Much of this recent rally can be traced back to the formation of this very tight configuration of planets. It is so positive that its energy started flowing much earlier than I expected. I thought it might begin to drive up prices in April as Jupiter came to within 5 degrees of Neptune, but the rally began in mid-March when Jupiter was still 10 degrees away.
But on the other side, we have some more negative influences. The most immediate is Mercury turning retrograde in aspect with Rahu. This retrograde cycle lasts until May 31 and is often (but not always) correlated with sideways or negative trends since Rahu introduces irrationality into the thinking process as symbolized by Mercury. Second, Pluto forms a harmonic aspect with the nodes, Rahu and Ketu which will last for two to three weeks. This can be problematic for any large scale organizations such as corporations which are represented by Pluto. The nodal influence can signify uncertainty, transgressions, and imbalance and could coincide with a public skepticism towards large scale enterprises. Third, Saturn stations on May 16 as it returns to direct motion after spending the past five months in its retrograde cycle.
By themselves, Saturn stations may not incline the market one way or the other, although they can often mark changes in trend. For example, when Saturn turned retrograde on December 31, 2008, the fledgling market rally peaked just a few days later and began its long slide down to the March lows. The previous Saturn direct station on May 3, 2008 coincided with an interim market top as prices peaked days after and then began to fall in earnest by late May. This doesn't mean that I think the market is going to start to fall precipitously after May 16. Far from it. But as a malefic planet, Saturn has the ability to inject a lot of fear and pessimism into all situations. For this reason, the time window around this station is unlikely to pass without some bearish consequence.
Week of April 20 - 24
The bulls refused to let go of the reigns of the market last week as stocks added another 1-2%. After some early week selling, New York stocks rebounded with the Dow closing Friday at 8131 and the S&P at 869. In Mumbai, stocks rallied up to their 200 day moving average Wednesday, before falling back a bit by Friday's close. The Nifty ended the week at 3384 and the Sensex at an impressive 11,023. The undercurrent of bullish sentiment on the approaching Jupiter-Neptune conjunction continues to offset most other potentially negative astrological factors. US markets fell early in the week ahead of the Mars-Uranus conjunction, but this decline was less than expected. The return of buyers coincided with a fairly innocuous looking Sun-Neptune aspect.
The bears may well rule the early part of this week as Mars approaches Venus on Monday and Tuesday. The Moon transits Aquarius opposite Saturn on those days, so that may increase levels of caution. Wednesday features a Mercury-Jupiter square aspect while the Moon enters Pisces to join Venus and Mars. This looks like a significant infusion of energy that could well stimulate buyers. Friday will see Mercury in aspect with Uranus so that may provide additional stimulation for the bulls. With Jupiter, Uranus, and Neptune all in close harmonic proximity, it may be difficult for this market to fall too far right here. I think the market may get choppier, with larger declines possible but likely still followed by roughly offsetting gains. Still, I note that a number of the relevant natal charts show some fundamental afflictions by slow moving malefics such as Saturn and the nodes, so their bearishness should begin to bite very soon.
This Friday is the Aries New Moon and features a close square aspect between the Sun-Moon conjunction and Rahu and Ketu. This would suggest a rise in nervousness and undermining of confidence over the next four weeks. Mercury, the planet of trading, is in close square aspect with Jupiter-Neptune which again is not indicative of significant gains. It needn't translate into losses, but given the nodal influence on the luminaries, the New Moon chart does not support the notion that this rally can be extended much further. And when we mix in the prospect of the Mercury retrograde period starting on May 6, the planets seem to be pointing to weaker markets in the near term.
The dollar should continue to strengthen this week, as oil and gold may slide back further.
Week of Apr 13 - 17
Stocks racked up more gains last week as the positive profit outlook from Wells Fargo on Thursday brought the bulls out in force yet again. The Dow closed at 8083, up less than 1% overall while the SPX finished the week at 856. Indian markets fared somewhat better over the three-day trading week and were up 3% as the Nifty closed at 3342 and the Sensex at 10,803. While I had expected more downside from the Mars-Saturn opposition, at least there was some pullback early on in the week in the US when this aspect was closest. Also the bearish Uranus ingress into sidereal Pisces did correspond with the decline below Dow 7800. The late week gain was also not too surprising given the favourable alignment of Sun-Mars-Jupiter, but I had not expected its positive effects to offset the negative patterns earlier in the week. Assessing amplitude is one of the more difficult aspects of financial astrology, after one has decided whether a particular configuration is either positive or negative.
While the bulls are on parade here and have clearly gained the upper hand in this market, I still think there is some remaining negative energy from the Uranus ingress. History tells us that Uranus' ingresses do not always translate into big declines, of course, but in instance I wonder if the release of energy might have been delayed somewhat by the approaching conjunction with Mars. Mars will conjoin Uranus in the first degree of Pisces on Wednesday. By itself, this conjunction can be a bearish pattern, and when it occurs so close to the actual ingress, it may receive an extra boost of energy. So there's still a chance for a sizable decline at some point in the week, perhaps as much as 5% on a single day. Even if the rally somehow continues early on, I think the week should be negative overall. With Venus ending its retrograde cycle on Friday, we are likely at the end of this fast rising bear market rally. It is interesting to recall that the rally began very close to the time that Venus went retrograde on March 6. Now that the cycle is ending, we will likely see the market consolidate at lower levels over the next few weeks. With Mercury turning retrograde in aspect to Rahu in early May, we may in fact see even lower prices then. Let's see how low we go here. If it's only a garden variety 3-4% correction by next Monday the 20th, then the extent of the overall decline may be more modest.
I think there is a chance for a big rally in the dollar here, with crude falling back quite a bit. Gold seems harder to read, but the Sun falling under the aspect of Saturn in the GLD natal chart suggests some late week bearishness.
Week of April 6 - 10
Last week stocks extended their rally into a fourth week adding another 3%. After Monday's steep sell off, the bulls returned to the trough and pushed up the Dow above 8000 closing at 8017 while the S&P finished at 842. Indian markets also rose as ended above some important resistance levels as the Nifty closed at 3211 and the Sensex at 10,348. While I was bearish for last week, I left open the possibility that the negative fallout from the Mars-Saturn aspect may well manifest this week instead. Also, I did call for weakness early on which was somewhat fulfilled in Monday's pullback. The midweek recovery was also within the boundary of my forecast given the bullishness of the Venus-Jupiter aspect.
So despite having underestimated the strength of this rally, I think a downside bias makes more sense this week. Besides the Mars-Saturn opposition aspect, the Sun is also part of that alignment around 22-23 degrees. In addition, Uranus changes signs this weekend as it moves into sidereal Pisces (according to the Lahiri ayanamsha) so this may act as an amplifier for prevailing market sentiment. Uranus is the planet of sudden and explosive energy, and its sign changes often correlate with significant events and big market swings. Uranus changed signs on October 17, 1987 just two days before the world markets had their biggest single-day decline. Seven years later on February 6, 1994, Uranus changed signs again this time entering Capricorn. This occurred just two days after the markets lost between 5-8% worldwide. Of course, the correlation is not perfect as there are many occasions when a Uranus ingress did not coincide with a major market move. Nonetheless, it is a potential factor to include in our analysis and given the pattern in the sky at the moment, it increases the likelihood for some kind of significant sell off. The larger symbolism of Uranus entering Pisces may also indicate some fundamental changes occurring in areas ruled by Pisces. These may reflect the return of the welfare state and more socialistic government policies given Pisces connection with compassion and caring.
Gold looks pretty bearish here, as does crude oil. I expect the dollar to resume its bounce this week.
Week of March 30 - April 3
Stocks extended their rally for a third week last week as a growing number of investors believed that the worst was over and that a new bull phase has begun. In New York the Dow climbed to 7776 and the S&P to 815. In Mumbai, the rally was even stronger as the key indices approached some key resistance levels on prices last seen in early January. The Nifty closed Friday at 3108 and the Sensex at 10,048. This bullishness has lasted longer than I expected and reflects the fact that passing aspects alone do not fully coincide with the movements of markets. In retrospect, the February New Moon in Aquarius on February 24 may have contained a clue to this rally through the close conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter in that chart. In fact, I noted that the chart looked favourable for stocks in March in my weekly forecast at the time. As good as the chart looked, I never expected the March rally to be so strong.
With Mars fast approaching Saturn, this rally is on the verge of turning, and may have already by virtue of Friday's down day in New York. The Sun conjoins Mercury late on Monday as both planets leave Saturn-ruled Uttara Bhadra and enter Mercury-ruled Revati. The net effect of these patterns is not clear, however. Mercury can sometimes get a boost from the Sun if other factors are supportive. By itself, the Sun is malefic and combusts planets it comes into contact with, so there is a risk that this may push prices lower, especially since Mercury is debilitated in Pisces. The Revati influence is perhaps more clearly negative since it is ruled by a fallen Mercury. Some midweek strength may result from the harmonic contact between two benefics, Venus and Jupiter. Since this is a partial strength aspect (they are conjunct in the D8 Ashtamsha chart) the positive effects may be fairly modest. The late week looks more negative as Mercury forms a tense 150 degree aspect with Saturn and Mars moves closer the to Saturn aspect, which comes exact on Saturday.
I note also that the Mars and Saturn opposition this week will aspect the Venus-Mars conjunction in the Houck USA chart on April 1 and 6. An affliction to natal Venus can mean sudden (Mars) loss (Saturn) of money (Venus) that one might associate with a stock market decline, while the affliction to the natal Mars may indicate some significant military action or other expression of violence. I see that the head of GM, Rick Wagoner, has now been asked to step down by Obama, so that also fits with the symbolism of an afflicted Venus, which represents vehicles. This may prove to be a difficult week for the auto industry.
Gold may move higher this week with some nice aspects in the GLD chart. Crude oil looks like it will eventually move lower by week's end. Dollar recovery to likely continue.
Week of March 23 - 27
Stocks moved higher last week, fueled in part by the Fed's plan to buy treasuries and loosen up the credit market. After peaking on Wednesday near 800, the S&P closed Friday at 768 while the Dow ended the day at 7278. Mumbai managed to avoid much of the late week selling pressure as the Sensex closed at 8966 and the Nifty at 2807. I thought we would see more of a decline with the Mercury-Jupiter-Saturn alignment, although the US market did fall in the two days following it. Interesting that the Mars-Pluto aspect on Wednesday did coincide with a significant financial event, namely the Fed's buy back plan. Tuesday's rise could be attributed to the Mercury-Jupiter aspect that preceded the Saturn aspect. Rather than have Saturn's negative influence 'bleed backwards' and contaminate benefics Mercury and Jupiter, the orb was far enough that Mercury and Jupiter could strengthen each other, if only temporarily.
This week appears to have some potentially negative influences that may make it difficult for the market to add to recent gains. On Monday, the Sun is in a square aspect with Pluto. This may indicate some tension and struggle surrounding large organizations and government. Also, the Moon is conjunct both Mars and Neptune, another potentially difficult transit that carries overtones of secrecy or illusion. One wonders if the Geithner plan to deal with the toxic banking assets may somehow embody some of these forces. Given the planets involved, there is some reason to think that the plan will not be well received. Tuesday sees Mars in harmonic aspect with Rahu, perhaps indicating an excess of energy or an action that is somehow out of control, with possible damaging consequences. Thursday features the New Moon at 12 degrees of sidereal Pisces. Given the close aspect from unpredictable Ketu, this New Moon chart may indicate a lot of volatility for the next few weeks. On Friday, the Sun conjoins retrograde Venus, now in an even closer aspect from Ketu. While it's possible this may coincide with higher prices as perhaps the unbounded quality of Ketu may unleash a flurry of buying on baseless optimism, but it seems more likely to translate into selling.
Week of March 16 - 20
Stocks rose sharply last week on new hope for the viability of the US banking sector, as the Dow ended Friday at 7223 and the S&P at 756. In Mumbai, stocks also posted substantial gains in the holiday-shortened week as the Sensex closed at 8756 and the Nifty at 2719. The gain was largely in keeping with our astrological expectations given the benefic influences of the Sun-Uranus conjunction and the Venus-Jupiter aspect. An added bullish element could be found in the favourable overlay that these aspects created in the relevant natal charts. In the Mumbai NSE chart, for example, the Sun-Uranus conjunction at 28 Aquarius was in exact trine aspect with the Jupiter at 28 Libra.
This week Saturn once again finds itself the centre of attention as Mercury makes its exact opposition aspect to it on Wednesday, while Jupiter is just one degree from forming an exact 6th house aspect with Saturn. While the complexity and uncertainty of astrology often precludes clear causal statement, any alignment that contains Saturn tends to promote fear and pessimism and hence declines are more likely. Another possible bearish influence is the Sun's entrance into sidereal Pisces on March 14. Pisces is ruled by Jupiter and since Jupiter is currently debilitated in Capricorn, this may weaken the Sun's ability to boost sentiment and inspire confidence. On Wednesday, Mars forms a close 3rd house aspect with Pluto and this may add and extra dose of energy and desire to traders. By itself, it is a neutral aspect that can either be positive or negative for the markets. It may indicate higher volumes and could be associated with a larger market move as investors may feel a greater sense of urgency to enter or exit their positions.
Week of March 9 -13
Stocks kept falling last week over continuing questions surrounding the viability of the financial sector. The Dow broke through 7000 and closed Friday at 6626 while the S&P ended at 683. In Mumbai, the Nifty retested its October lows and ended down 5% to close at 2620 while the Sensex stood at 8325. This results are largely in keeping with expectations with the likely fallout from the approaching Venus retrograde station in tense aspect with Saturn.
Wednesday's gains in New York deserve special mention here for bucking the down trend. Certainly, the close harmonic aspect between Sun and Venus had the potential for boosting sentiment, although it was something of an open question whether it might manifest Tuesday when Jupiter was also in the mix. Interestingly, the Moon was in Mars-ruled Mrigashira on Wednesday, while Mars was transiting its own nakshatra of Dhanista. This is a favourable combination that may have been a factor in the rise. By Thursday, the Moon had moved into Rahu-ruled Ardra and the selling resumed. For its part, Rahu was in Moon-ruled Shravana, and while the exchange of lords is often seen as fortuitous, in this case we may speculate whether such an exchange could still generate optimism given the difficult condition of Rahu in Capricorn.
With the Venus station now behind us, there is a good prima facie case for some kind of rebound here. The Sun-Uranus conjunction comes exact on Thursday and this should provide a lot of new, restless energy that could increase volumes. Since the conjunction is occurring in Uranian-ruled Aquarius, that is a possible positive indicator to this contact that could translate into higher prices. Another potentially favourable influence on the markets is the 3rd house aspect (sextile) between Venus and Jupiter on Wednesday. The Moon moves into harmonic alignment with this aspect on Thursday (EDT) so it's possible that the bulk of the bullish trend may be confined towards the end of the week. Nonetheless, Wednesday's Moon looks favourable by another metric since will be in Sun-ruled Uttara Phalguni while the Sun is moving away from Saturn towards Uranus in Jupiter-ruled Purva Bhadra. Before then, the market may be more tentative. On Monday, the Moon is in Magha while Ketu is in Pushyami. Whatever other influences that may be effective at that time, that particular situation is not very supportive of prices.
With Mercury and Mars still remaining to oppose Saturn, one can't be overly confident that the market is prepared to rally substantially from here. Even if this week is positive, the market will be prone to more sideways movement and pullbacks over the next few weeks.
Week of March 2 - 6
US markets sank further into the quicksand of this bear market last week as stocks fell another 4% as the Dow finished at 7062 and the S&P closed at 735. Mumbai fared better than most world markets last week and managed to eke out modest gains as the Nifty closed at 2763 and the Sensex at 8891. While the Dow managed to stay above the psychologically important 7000 mark, the S&P fell unceremoniously below its November low and is now at 12-year lows. While I had expected the early week bearishness, the New Moon was not as positive as I had thought so the end of the week saw markets down again.
Now we're facing the prospect of a Venus retrograde station at 21 Pisces that is in a tense 6th house aspect with Saturn at 24 Leo. Add to that the Jupiter-Saturn 6th house aspect that will come exact March 23, and the minor aspect between Saturn and Pluto on March 11, and it's a fairly bleak picture. These are configurations involving slower moving bodies so we can't take the dates of their exactitude as necessarily indicative of the dates of their maximum impact. They have to be triggered by faster moving planets that complete the pattern. There are several possible triggers here including the Sun opposing Saturn and Mercury and Mars conjoining Neptune this week and then Mercury and Mars opposing Saturn in mid March and early April respectively. The markets may manage some gains this week due to the harmonic aspects of Sun and Jupiter and Mercury will transit through the Jupiter-ruled section of Dhanista on Monday. Overall, however, it seems like a bearish situation. From a nakshatra perspective, Mercury moves into the Saturn-ruled section of Dhanista Tuesday and Wednesday. And then Jupiter will move into the presumably bearish Ketu ruled portion of Shravana for Thursday and Friday.
This pattern has a certain ominous portent here that makes me wonder if something fairly big is right around the corner. There is a real possibility for a major move down with all these Saturn patterns coming together.
Week of February 23 - 27
Stocks in New York continued to swoon last week on the growing alarm over the government's inability to fix the banking system, as the Dow fell to its lowest level in 6 years closing at 7365. The S&P did not break below its November lows (752) however, and closed Friday at 770. Mumbai was also sharply lower last week as the major indexes fell 8%. Indian markets have fared considerably better than American markets since the original Fall decline and are still trading above their January lows. On Friday, the Sensex closed at 8843 and the Nifty at 2736. My sense that last week's five planet alignment involving malefics Mars, Rahu and Ketu was going to be problematic for the market was largely borne out by the 6-8% decline. While I was somewhat unsure what the immediate impact of this pattern might be, I thought that proximity of the Mercury-Saturn aspect later on in the week would be enough to push prices down generally. Certainly, the markets have been hit by a new wave of bearishness in the wake of the lunar eclipse of Feb 9. Eclipses are famously bearish for stocks and the recent down move has proven this notion correct yet again.
I'm more optimistic about this week, however, as the Aquarius New Moon on Tuesday looks decidedly better than the previous one in Capricorn. Given that the New Moon chart governs the next 4 weeks, this means we may well be near an interim bottom here. Mercury conjoins Jupiter on Tuesday which ought to provide some support although with Mars moving into closer quincunx aspect to Saturn on the weekend, any gains made this week are unlikely to get very far. So the week may be fairly mixed with some more selling early on with more buyers coming back by midweek. I'm not ruling out a down week, but any declines should be fairly modest.
Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday which was in keeping with expectations. Monday may be a possible high as the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction will conjoin with the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. I'm not sure that gold has much higher to go here, although the next couple of months could conceivably go either way. The summer looks more decidedly negative as the nodes will afflict several key points in the GLD chart. Until then, it may be a tug of war between the positive effects of transiting Jupiter on the natal Venus and MC and the Saturn square to natal Mars in the Futures chart.
Week of February 16 - 20
Investors gave a collective thumbs down to the Geithner bank plan as stocks retreated 5% in New York last week with the Dow falling to 7850 and the S&P to 826. I thought markets might be more bullish, but stocks seemed to slide right after Monday 's afflicted lunar eclipse. So the US markets seemed to be in negative space with all the heavy Jupiter representation in the nakshatra sublordships. This implications of the Rahu affliction to Jupiter was left as an open question, and we saw some confirmation of that bearish hypothesis.
This week features a very rare symmetrical configuration in the sky with a triple conjunction of Mars-Rahu-Jupiter at 15 Capricorn and then Venus at 15 Pisces in exact harmonic aspect with the Capricorn conjunction and Ketu at 15 Cancer. This kind of five planet alignment has never occurred in modern times and so extrapolating market effects is somewhat more difficult than usual. Certainly there is a a mix of benefic and malefic energies that complicates the picture. Even if we see a big gain early on here, I think the bears will return in force soon enough as the market seems destined to move lower.
Mumbai markets rose 3% last week on optimism that Asian economies would respond to various stimulus packages. This was broadly in keeping with our expectations as the approaching Jupiter-Rahu conjunction created more positive sentiment in India than in the US. Part of the reason for the different outcomes of this alignment was due to the fact that Jupiter was in close harmonic aspect with the ascendant of the NSE chart, hence the more positive outcome there.
The Mars-Jupiter-Rahu-Venus-Ketu alignment early in the week may produce a big move, perhaps in reaction to the Indian budget. The overall mood seems more negative, however, so any gains here are unlikely to last long.
Week of February 9 - 13
After being in the doldrums for most of the week, US markets rallied towards the end of the week on hopes for a speedy passage of the stimulus package and the bank plan and closed up 4% on the week. After trading below 7900 at the open Thursday,. the Dow closed Friday at 8280 and the SPX at 868. I had thought the Saturn-Uranus aspect might provide more down energy now, but with such slow moving planets it is sometimes harder to identify the necessary triggering planet and predict when their negative energy will be released. For example, the first exact Saturn-Uranus opposition on November 4 coincided with a rise. It is worth noting, however, that the market did fall in the days following the aspect. Also the market made a significant low the week prior on October 27. So even with some of the declines we saw in late January, I would argue that the bearishness of this aspect has yet to be fully expressed. It may require the Mars aspect in late February to bring it out and for the markets to move lower.
This week there are a few interesting patterns including a lunar eclipse on Monday which may increase trading volumes and intraday swings. The eclipse pattern seems negative given the close harmonic aspect with Saturn, but I think we may move somewhat higher this week, at least in the early going before the Sun moves into sidereal Aquarius. One thing I will be watching is the effect of Jupiter moving from Rahu's to Jupiter's portion of Shravana. Given Rahu's current conjunction with Jupiter, one could see how the market might get support from Jupiter receiving this Rahu energy. And yet now that Jupiter is transiting through its own section of the nakshatra (until Feb 15), there could be a change in attitudes towards wealth (Jupiter). It is worth noting that last week's rise came during the Sun's transit of the Rahu portion of Dhanista. The Sun will be in Jupiter's sub of Dhanista Monday and then Saturn for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Mumbai lost a bit of ground last week as the rally only arrived on Friday. After bouncing up from 2760 a couple of times earlier in the week, the Nifty ended the week at 2843 and the Sensex at 9300. Aside from the unfulfilled downside energy from the Saturn-Uranus opposition, one of the interesting features of last week's action was the abrupt shift in sentiment from Thursday to Friday. Using the Nakshatra lord and sublord paradigm, we can find several changes, any one of which might have been involved in the move from bearish to bullish. Mercury transited from the Mars to the Rahu section of Uttarashada, hence increasing the plausibly positive energy available to market participants. At the same time, Mars moved from Mercury to Ketu's portion of Uttarashada. While Ketu is nominally negative for material endeavours, Ketu does come under the favourable aspect of Jupiter now, so it may not be as bearish as it may first appear. Finally, the Sun transited from Moon-ruled Shravana to Mars-ruled Dhanista between Thursday and Friday. Shravana is a very changeable nakshtra due to the constantly shifting influences upon its ruler, the Moon. But currently Mars may be interpreted as more positive given its exaltation in Capricorn and its approaching conjunction with Jupiter and Rahu. Further study of Mars' energy may shed more light on its effects in its transit of Capricorn over the next few weeks.
This week the market seems poised to go higher as the US stimulus package moves closer to becoming law. Optimism may be overflowing this week as Jupiter finally conjoins Rahu on Friday. And yet much depends on the effect of the various planetary transits to Jupiter-controlled nakshatras. Jupiter is debilitated in Capricorn and the influence of Rahu can make for sudden changes and reversals. The late week looks more negative as transiting Mercury comes close to the malefic 8th house cusp in the Nifty natal chart.
Week of Feb 2 - 6
Stocks in New York followed a sisyphean trajectory last week as an early rally culminated in Wednesday's high only to fall back by Friday below last week's close. The Dow closed at 8000 and the SPX ended at 825. I had thought the early week could be more negative with the Mercury Rx-Mars conjunction but it seems only to have increased the energy available to market participants rather than move the market in any particular direction. Its placement in Sun-ruled Uttarashada may be shaped the outcome as the Sun is under the presumed influence of Rahu and Jupiter in Capricorn. While Rahu is disruptive by itself, its current conjunction with Jupiter can produce acquisitiveness and buying. Overall, the market was slightly negative.
This week should see continued volatility as Saturn exactly opposes Uranus on Thursday with a t-square with the Moon forming during trading hours EST . There is a potential for a short rally before then, perhaps Monday or Tuesday when Moon is in Aries while its dispositor Mars is exalted in Capricorn. Tuesday's Moon has the added positive feature of being in Venus-ruled Bharani which is also currently exalted in Pisces. By Friday, Venus will square Pluto and combined with Saturn-Uranus opens the door to a possible return down to current support levels of Dow 7900 and SPX 805. Feburary and March are shaping up quite negatively so the only question is whether the November lows of 7400/750 will hold. I think they won't.
Mumbai bounced back last week as markets rallied 7% with the Sensex closing Friday at 9424 and the Nifty at 2874. The extent of the upside surprised me, mostly because I did not expect the early week gains on the Mercury Mars conjunction. As strong as the rally was, I don't think it changes the fundamental direction of the market down. This week should see averages somewhat lower by Friday although if the early week gains come to pass, then the overall decline could be minimal or even be flat. Monday and Tuesday will see the now forward moving Mercury in a helpful aspect with the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart. This may give some support to prices. In addition to the difficult transit patterns that will build up by late week, Mercury will be sitting on the 12th house cusp of the Sensex natal chart. On Friday, the Moon will transit Ardra, a particularly difficult nakshatra. These are bearish influences that could bring down prices sharply.
Gold extended its recent gains last week as it closed at $928. While some retracement down did occur early on, prices resumed their upward climb following the Sun-Rahu conjunction. This week may see a couple of down days as Mars aspects Ketu in the GLD chart, but gold seems likely to continue to rise at least for the duration of the Sun's transit of Capricorn until Feb 12 and perhaps several days beyond. Gold may only begin to fall significantly in March once the Venus retrograde cycle has started. (Mar 6). So even if it tops out around $1000 in the next two weeks, the Venus retrograde period will return it back below $800.
Forecast for week of Jan 26 - 30
US stocks took another beating last week as fears about the viability of the banking sector continued to rattle investors. The feel-good Obama inauguration failed to boost sentiment as the Dow lost over 2% on the week and ended Friday at 8077 with the S&P at 831. I had thought the Sun-Mercury-Jupiter conjunction might have provided the necessary lift for some kind of a brief rally but in the end Mercury's motion away from the positive influence of Jupiter limited the available optimism. Tuesday's loss coincided with Mercury's conjunction with the Sun, which gives support to the notion that planetary combustion is clearly a malefic influence.
This week looks action-packed, as we have the solar eclipse on Monday and the Mercury-Mars conjunction on Tuesday, along with Venus' ingress into Pisces. While the eclipse configuration has the imprint of both Jupiter and Saturn, I think the overall effect will be negative and underlines the probability that we are headed lower over the coming weeks. The early part of the week may see sharp declines with the possibility of some recovery by Friday.
Indian markets were also strongly negative last week with the Nifty falling to 2678 and the Sensex at 8674. Tuesday and Wednesday saw the markets fall over 6% at the time of the Sun-Mercury conjunction. That conjunction occurred at 6 Capricorn formed a harmonic aspect with the malefic Mars-Rahu square in the NSE chart and should be seen as a possible signature for the depth of the decline in Mumbai.
With Monday's holiday closing, most of the action this week will occur Tuesday. The Mercury-Mars conjunction occurs at 11.40 a.m. IST. While not necessarily negative in itself, the latent Saturn influence on the conjunction has the potential to push markets over the edge. We could see more significant declines there with only a small chance of recovery later on. Friday may be the best day as the Moon and Venus conjoin in early Pisces near the 10th house cusp of the NSE chart and near the 4th house cusp in the Nifty chart. I think most of the movement in the coming weeks will be on the downside.
Crude oil and Gold both rose sharply last week, mostly due to the Sun-Jupiter conjunction. The Sun received Jupiter's optimism and therefore Gold rose to $895 on Friday. Oil rose because its dispositor is also the Sun, since Saturn is currently in the sign of Leo. I think the rally in crude may continue this week although the rise may be more muted. Gold seems to be at the end of its recent rally and with the Jupiter's influence behind it, the Sun now has to contend with the conjunction with Rahu on Wednesday. By Friday, I think gold should be down significantly from its highs.
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Market Forecast for week of January 19 -23
Stocks fell another 4% in New York last week a growing number of investors realized that the recession will likely last through all of 2009. After touching 8000 on Thursday, the Dow rebounded Friday and ended the week at 8281, while the S&P ended at 850. Both indexes are below their 50 day moving average now as the the market ponders the fork in the road: to reach the technical safety of higher ground or to sink back down to the November lows. Certainly, the pessimism from the Mercury-Saturn aspect last week had the desired effect as sentiment fell very close to when the aspect came exact. And it is also possible to see how the late week turn higher reflects the tug of war between Rahu and Jupiter over the affections of Mercury. As long as retrograde Mercury was closer to the disruptive influence of Rahu, the market sold off. Once Mercury was closer to benefic Jupiter, the market shook off the blues and pushed higher.
With US markets closed Monday and the Obama inauguration on Tuesday, there will be compressed time frame for trading this week. Overall, I think the chances for a big rally are very good as Sun, Mercury and Jupter conjoin in Uttarashada. This nakshatra is ruled by the Sun, so having that doubly helpful influence on the nakshatra lord should give an extra boost to sentiment. The Sun-Jupiter conjunction comes exact on Friday and may well mark the approximate end of this mini-rally. In addition, Venus is conjoining Uranus this week, and comes exact on Thursday so that may provide some additional heft to the bullishness. How high could it go? Well, I think it's possible the market may soar as high as Obama's rhetoric. The US has been waiting for a new beginning for a long time, and the incoming Obama administration is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to turn the page and start anew. Optimism will rule the day and will likely spill over into the market. I would not be surprised to see the Dow get to 9500 here. Next week's Saturnized solar eclipse may be the proverbial bucket of cold water on the parade, so investors should enjoy the ride while it lasts.
Indian markets were modestly lower after a volatile week in the wake of the Satyam revelations. After bouncing off lows of 9000, the Sensex ended Friday's session at 9323, with the Nifty at 2828. The negative action came off more or less according to expectations, as the Mercury-Saturn aspect pushed stocks much lower on Thursday. I had thought that Wednesday might have been more negative, but perhaps the happy glow from the Moon-Venus aspect was enough to temporarily mask the hardened resignation of Mercury's sad condition. Friday's gain also was a little surprising in light of the twin Mars aspects to the NSE chart. The transiting Moon's aspect to a fast-strengthening Mercury proved more than enough to counteract the negativity contained in the natal charts.
While the early week may be tentative, I think Mumbai will also move higher this week as the Sun-Jupiter brings its message of optimism and hope back to the market. The Venus-Uranus conjunction will form a nice aspect to the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart so that is additional support the rally hypothesis here. The Sun-Jupiter conjunction does not form any obvious aspects to this natal chart but that may not matter. Thursday may be a possible down day as the Moon squares Saturn in the afternoon. However, even that bearish indicator may be pushed to the side with the presence of Venus in aspect to Saturn. There is a potential for a big lift here, perhaps to Nifty 3000 and 10,000 on the Sensex.
The rally in stocks this week will probably push crude oil temporarily higher. The US dollar is likely to take a pounding this week, so that may provide some support for gold. Paradoxically, gold seems prone to a steep decline here as the Sun-Jupiter conjunction falls in a delicate area of the GLD chart. This is likely to take hold towards the end of the week or perhaps early next week.
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Market Forecast for week of January 12 - 16
Markets headed south last week with the approach of Mercury to Rahu and the impending Mercury retrograde cycle as the Dow ended Friday at 8599 and the SPX at 890. The bearish sentiment was punctuated by a difficult Mercury-Saturn aspect that was in hindsight the more immediate cause of Wednesday's substantial decline. The general picture of a shift to pessimism was largely in keeping with our expectations laid out last week.
With Mercury turning retrograde this weekend, we are entering a zone of transitional energies where Mercury, the planet of trading, is slowing separating from the disruptive influence of Rahu and moving towards the warmer embrace of Jupiter's optimism. This shift will take time, and we may see prices fall further this week before they move up again and stage some kind of rally. Look for some kind of bounce up Monday or Tuesday, after which the market will sell off as Mercury again aspects Saturn and move back down towards 8400/870. The late week could go either way, but by Friday we may finally see Jupiter's favourable influence become manifest. The subsequent rally next week may be short-lived but it could be substantial and return the market to its November highs. A sharp turn downwards is likely in the last week for a variety of astrological reasons, not the least of which is a solar eclipse on January 26. This eclipse features several strong aspects, including a close Jupiter conjunction to the Sun and Moon. Jupiter's influence is offset by two important factors: 1) a close Saturn aspect to the eclipse point and 2) a powerful alignment of Venus, Saturn and Uranus straddling the MC-IC. While different interpretations of this configuration are possible, I think the negative outweighs the positive and the Jupiter influence may only manifest as a magnification of the bearish mood.
Mumbai also had a down week as markets sold off sharply in the wake of the Satyam debacle on Wednesday. The Sensex closed Friday at 9406 and the Nifty at 2873, as the indices once again failed to break through their key resistance levels (Nifty 3150). The Mercury-Saturn aspect was mostly responsible for a sharp sell off, which activated the natal Saturn in the NSE chart. Overall, markets moved according to expectation, although the downside was somewhat greater than anticipated. Look for the market to move lower this week, after a gain early on, perhaps on Tuesday. Indian markets may not see the rally begin until next week but it should be fairly strong and push the Nifty above 3000. It's possible we could see 3100 again by the 23rd but this seems like a bit of a stretch. The eclipse of January 26 will likely decisively break the bullish mood. The eclipse point falls at 12 Capricorn and this will once again activate the NSE Saturn at 12 Aquarius. Given transiting Saturn's placement in aspect to this degree, it seems likely that Indian markets will head down substantially in the weeks following the eclipse. A retest of the October lows of Nifty 2525 seems the most likely scenario.
The US dollar gained some ground last week against most currencies as crude oil sold off hard to $41 and gold slipped back to $855. This week looks more equivocal for the dollar and commodities without a strong trend although I would think the dollar remains weakly bullish which means that commodities will trend somewhat lower.
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Market Forecast -- week of January 5 - 9
US markets staged an impressive rally last week as the Dow powered above the 9000 mark by Friday and finished at 9034 and the S&P at 931. While I had wondered if the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction might provide enough of a midweek lift for 8800, Friday's rally was surprising. In retrospect, there some good rationale for the rise given the proximity of the aspect from transiting Jupiter to the natal Sun in the NYSE chart. This aspect comes exact Monday so it's possible there may be a little more optimism left to be expressed although I think it is not at all clear with the difficult Mars-Saturn aspect on Monday. As the Jupiter aspect runs out of juice, we will see more profit taking, with Thursday and Friday perhaps being more clearly negative. Overall, I think the mood will shift to bearish this week, particularly with the approach of the Mercury retrograde station on Saturday the 10th. This station will bring volatility and uncertainty in the markets due to the close conjunction with unpredictable Rahu (North Lunar Node).
I had thought we'd have a clearer low here below Dow 8400 but now I'm not so sure. January's rally may be a very choppy affair with relatively little upside. 10,000 is only a possibility here, with 9600 a more likely target. The period immediately following the inauguration on the 20th may be the high as Sun conjoins Jupiter. Look for markets to sink lower in the last week of January as the Mercury retrograde cycle comes to a very bearish end as Mercury will conjoin malefic Mars at that time. February and March now look like the time when the market will finally go below Dow 8000 before starting a stronger rally for the summer.
Indian markets also rose strongly last week as Indo-Pak tensions eased and the RBI cut interest rates. The Nifty gained 6% to 3046 and the Sensex closed Friday at 9958. Again, the upside from the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction wasn't entirely unexpected but I wished I had surrendered a bit more to the logic of it in last week's forecast. This week may move the Nifty back below 3000, as Monday may be negative with the Sun-Ketu aspect in the NSE chart. Some gains are possible by midweek but with the holiday closing Thursday, Friday may see some major selling pressure which pushes markets lower. It seems that my previous forecast of 2700 on the Nifty may not become a reality this month and may only come to pass in February and March when markets will begin a longer trend down. The upside in January is likely to be quite limited, and it's possible that Nifty 3150 may remain a significant resistance level. Nifty 3500 seems a little too ambitious. Overall, January looks very changeable with short rallies followed by quick sell offs.
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Market Forecast -- week of December 29 - January 2
Stocks in New York declined 2% last week as the tense Saturn-Neptune aspect continued to lurk in the background. The indexes stubbornly stayed above key support levels as the Dow closed Friday at 8515 and the S&P at 872. The immediate source of the negativity seemed to come from the Mars-Jupiter aspect as investors remained cautious before Christmas. The New Moon of December 27th suggests a mixed picture for January as malefic Mars-Pluto rises but Venus and Neptune are in exact conjunction. This is perhaps more evidence that the month to come may feature both a significant decline and a substantial rally. The optimism and idealism reflected in the Venus-Neptune conjunction is well expressed in the Obama inauguration on January 20. This will likely coincide will some kind of rise in the markets.
This week Saturn makes its retrograde station on Wednesday at 27 degrees of Leo. By itself this may not be a bearish influence, but given the Neptune aspect, it takes on a much larger importance. It is one of the reasons that we're likely to see more downward pressure on the market over the next week or two. On Wednesday, there is a conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter which may give some boost to the market, although it is more likely to occur before the aspect becomes exact.
Stocks in Mumbai were in sharp retreat last week as the major indexes fell 7% with the Nifty settling at 2857 and the Sensex at 9328. Profit taking from the December rally and increased nervousness of the the tensions between India and Pakistan forced stocks lower. The near term outlook remains negative as Wednesday's Saturn retrograde station will closely aspect the natal Jupiter in the NSE horoscope. The New Moon at 12 Sagittarius is in close aspect with natal Saturn which is another bearish indicator for the Indian markets in the coming weeks.
Posted by Christopher Kevill 12/28/2008 10:27:00 PM EST
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Market Forecast -- week of December 22 - 26
Our bearish forecast notwithstanding, US stocks were mostly unchanged last week as the Dow closed Friday at 8579 and the S&P at 887. I had thought we would see more downside with the alignment of malefic planets, particularly the Mars-Saturn aspect. Monday saw stocks fall but they did not come close to even the 8400 support level. Tuesday's rally was not unexpected either, as Venus conjoined Rahu. But the late week decline was also a rather tepid affair as the market remains stuck in a fairly narrow trading range between 8500-9000.
It's important to note that the negative energy of the aspect between slow moving Saturn and Neptune has not disappeared. It is likely to be manifest sometime soon and is awaiting the proper planetary trigger. I mistakenly though the Sun-Mars would be sufficient, but as always astrology, the science that is not one, is rarely as straightforward as it seems. This week doesn't appear to have anything that will break us out of this trading range, although a rally is possible midweek on the Mercury-Venus aspect. Friday may be a harbinger of steeper declines to come, however, with the approach of the Mars-Pluto conjunction. Given the violent potential contained within these planets, it is possible this may be related to a geopolitical event that shakes market confidence. In any event, I think we will likely see the low around the first week of January 2009.
Stocks in Mumbai continued their winning ways last week as the major indices rose 5%. The Nifty closed at 3077 and the Sensex at 10,099. The late week Mars transit to the NSE ascendant did not bring declines but rather actually saw some gains. I'm a little puzzled by this market strength but remained convinced that this is another bear market rally that cannot be trusted to go much higher. Nifty 3150 seems like a solid resistance level.
While some gains are possible Tuesday or Wednesday, Indian stocks are likely to finish near or slightly below current levels this week. The Mars-Pluto conjunction early next week has the added feature of exactly aspecting the natal Mars in the Indian independence horoscope. This is a combination of planetary energies that speaks to sudden or even violent actions that may fall outside of the financial arena. The natal Mars in the India chart is in the 2nd house of finances however, so the most likely expression of this energy is simply more financial turbulence. Nonetheless, we should be open to all possibilities.
I think the US dollar will recover further in the coming weeks, with corresponding losses in gold.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 12/21/2008 12:27:00 PM EST
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Market Forecast -- week of December 15 - 19
US stocks ended mostly unchanged on the week as the Dow closed Friday at 8629 and the S&P at 879. The forecast early week rise to 9000 came off more or less as expected, but the decline afterwards was fairly modest. While Friday's open took the Dow down towards 8400, the market rallied through the rest of the day, despite the malefic Full Moon configuration and the failure of the auto bailout plan in the Senate. As Mars perfects its square to Saturn on Monday, it's hard to imagine the market going much higher this week. Declines would seem to be more in keeping with the planetary energy. A midweek rise is more likely given the Venus-Rahu conjunction on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rahu symbolizes acquisitiveness and compulsive behaviour and Venus is connected with money so we may see a strong up day. Mercury is in aspect with Rahu later in the week, so that could give some investors second thoughts and take the market down again.
Indian stocks rose 7% last week on hopes that China's stimulus package would help avoid the worst of the slowdown. The Nifty closed Friday at 2921 and the Sensex at 9690. While the early week rise was anticipated, the absence of a late week pullback was something of a disappointment. I think Mumbai will likely catch up on the downside this week as transiting Mars conjoins the ascendant in the NSE chart. At least one strong up day is likely, however, so the overall losses may be tempered somewhat. I think Indian markets are vulnerable to sell offs over the next two weeks as transiting Saturn is coming to its retrograde station on 31 December exactly conjunct the natal Moon in the 8th house in the Sensex chart. This doesn't mean the market will be completely negative until that time, but it will probably mean that any rallies will not get far as selling pressure will never be far away.
The US dollar sank a little further last week as the Euro and Gold moved higher. I think the US dollar will likely move higher this week, and likely continue to be strong through to the end of the month.
Posted Christopher Kevill at 12/14/2008 12:24:00 PM EST
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Market Forecast -- week of December 8 - 12
US Stocks fell 2% last week on the heels of Monday's triple conjunction of Moon-Venus-Jupiter. The Dow closed at 8635 while the S&P ended Friday at 876. While I had expected more upside near the time of conjunction, it was a reminder that the energy contained in most aspects lies at the 'front end' when the planets are applying and once they come exact the energy dissipates very quickly. As it turned out the Venus-Jupiter conjunction perfected in the overnight hours Monday (EST) and not even the approach of the Moon midday was enough to revive positive sentiment. Overseas markets started to fall very close to the time of the Venus-Jupiter conjunction. Once the Moon had perfected its aspect to both Venus and Jupiter, the market decline accelerated.
I think markets are headed into a minefield this week with the approaching Sun-Mars-Saturn-Neptune alignment. While some early week gains are possible on the sidereal ingresses of Mercury and Jupiter into Sagittarius and Capricorn respectively, markets will likely move significantly lower from these levels. One complicating factor is that the Sun will not be in exact alignment with Saturn until Saturday, which may lessen the level of negative energy on Friday. Friday still looks very negative as does next Monday when Mars will be in aspect to Saturn. It seems likely that we will see the Dow fall below 8000 here.
Indian markets also declined last week as the indices lost 1% with the Sensex closing at 8965 and the Nifty at 2714. Mercury conjoins the ascendant of the NSE chart on Monday so that should ensure a nice gain then. With Tuesday's holiday closing, it's harder to see much upside for the rest of the week. Transiting Rahu is in tense aspect with the natal Sun-Venus conjunction in the NSE chart so that bodes very poorly for Indian markets over the coming two weeks. A retest of the late October lows is likely.
This is shaping up a potentially tumultuous week in the global financial system as I expect the US dollar to spike on its safe haven status while gold and oil will continue to fall. But there's a good chance that there will be some kind of lasting bottom formed in the coming days that will be the launching point for a rally in early 2009.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 12/07/2008 12:45:00 PM EST
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Market Forecast for week of December 1 - 5
Stocks in New York rallied over 10% last week amidst a growing sense that a solid bottom was reached the week previous at 7400. The Dow ended the holiday-shortened week at 8829 while the S&P closed at 896. The rally was largely expected although I had thought we might see more declines later in the week. As it happened, the potential negativity contained within the Moon's transit of Scorpio was offset by the approaching conjunction of benefics Venus and Jupiter.
Monday's triple conjunction of Moon-Venus-Jupiter may coincide with a big rise as the rally enters a more difficult phase. The Sun and Mars will conjoin at 20 degrees of Scorpio on Friday and this may also shift sentiment away from rehabilitated optimism to a more jittery and alarmist orientation. The coming Saturn-Neptune aspect will likely bring back a significant amount of fear and pessimism to the market. In addition, the New Moon of November 27 was quite afflicted and also suggests that December will not be kind to equities. Although the Venus-Jupiter conjunction is fairly close in that chart, Mercury is in a tighter conjunction with Mars and both are aspected by unstable Ketu. This suggests that prices will be volatile through December with sudden ups and downs. To make matters worse, the New Moon in New York features Neptune rising with Saturn in the 8th house of obstacles. This is additional evidence that the markets will see a significant move down this month, perhaps revisiting Dow 7400 or even going below it.
Indian markets made more modest gains last week as the terror attacks in Mumbai shut markets on Thursday. While I had expected higher prices in the early going, stocks ended the week fairly close to forecast levels. The Nifty ended Friday's session at 2755 while the Sensex closed at 9092. The rally will likely be extended this week as the Venus-Jupiter conjunction occurs almost exactly on the natal Uranus of the NSE chart in the 2nd house of wealth. A very rapid rise is possible so Nifty 3000 seems quite doable here. The rally is unlikely to last very long, however, Saturn is moving into a particularly dominant position in the NSE chart. As already noted, the New Moon of November 27 is not a good chart. Moreover, in Mumbai, the New Moon occurred with malefic and unpredictable Ketu rising. While Ketu can simply mean quick and sudden actions, it is also very much an anti-materialist energy that is often at odds with higher stock prices. With Mercury conjunct Mars in this chart, it presents a fairly bleak picture for stocks in December. The only question is how low will they go. I think a retest of Nifty 2525 is inevitable, and stocks will likely trade well below that level for a time.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/30/2008 05:13:00 PM EST
Market Forecast for week of November 24 - 28
Stocks markets worldwide continued their downward spiral last week amidst the growing sense that the recession will be a long and painful one. Despite Friday's impressive rally on the news of Timothy Geithner's appointment as Obama's Treasury Secretary, the Dow was off 5% for the week and closed at 8046 while the S&P stood at 800. On Thursday, the Dow retested its 2002 lows of 7400 while the S&P revisited lows set back in 1996. While I had expected a possible retest, I thought the markets might be content with Dow 8000 and then bounce back from there. I also mistakenly thought the low for the week would occur earlier, in advance of the perfecting of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect. As it turned out it was only the day the aspect perfected, Friday, that saw the market turnaround.
This market is clearly on its last legs of this phase of the bear market. With the passing of the Jupiter-Saturn aspect, the next major aspect is Saturn-Neptune. This is a more clearly malefic influence and will likely be felt with full force in December when those two planets are in their closest harmonic resonance. Despite the gloom that hangs over the market, however, there may well be enough time left for some modest gains over the next week or two, particularly in light of approach of the triple conjunction of benefics Moon, Venus and Jupiter on December 1. Nonetheless, the market is likely to be extremely volatile during this period so any gains are unlikely to last long and may be confined to intraday highs as skittishness will intensify as time goes on. It's possible the Dow could go to 9000 at some point here, but it's not anything one should put a large stake in. The Sun and Mercury conjoin on Tuesday so this may well have a hand in some optimistic trading patterns in the early part of the week.
Markets in Mumbai followed the rest of the world last week as Dalal Street saw losses of 6%. Thursday saw a retest of October's closing lows (2525/7700) but Friday's rally saved the day as the Nifty closed at 2693 and the Sensex at 8915. As the world slips deeper into recession, there will be no escape for Indian markets from December's decline. In the meantime some modest gains are possible this week but they will be fleeting. Even with the helpful Sun-Mercury conjunction on Tuesday, the Moon's transit of Scorpio, its sign of debilitation, late in the week may bring significant losses. High volatility in the next two weeks impose limits on any gains. From a longer term perspective, I am increasingly pessimistic about a market recovery in 2009. Rallies will occur and they may have considerable force, but they are very unlikely to return the market to levels seen in the first half of 2008. This is not a good time to own stocks for the long haul as it may be years before they return to 2008 levels.
With the ongoing turbulence last week, crude oil sold off sharply and even traded below $50. While some bounce back is possible this week, crude is headed lower into December, probably below $40. Gold rallied nicely last week to $800 and things continue to look quite positive for gold as the Sun transits Anuradha this week and into the early part of next week. I expect it to climb higher. The US dollar once again was the beneficiary of fear in the market as it rose against most currencies. The Euro managed to hold its own at 1.26, however, and it may gain a cent or two here before heading down sharply in December. The Rupee lost ground last week closing at 49.9 and is going to be on shaky ground for the next month or so and may trade in the 52 range.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/23/2008 03:01:00 PM EST
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Weekly Forecast -- week of November 17 - 21
Stocks slumped 5% worldwide last week on continuing fears that the recession may be deeper than first thought. Despite an impressive rally Thursday in New York following an apparent retest of Dow 8000, the market slipped back Friday as the Dow closed at 8497 and the SPX at 873. I had expected more of rally last week on the basis of the favourable Jupiter-Uranus aspect but it seems that the hangover effects of the preceding week's Saturn-Uranus opposition still carried the day.
I think markets are likely to be shaky in the early part of the week on the heels of Saturn's aspect to Mercury on Monday. I would not be surprised to see yet another retest of Dow 8000 then. Stocks are likely to improve significantly as the week progresses as Mercury joins the Sun and Mars in Scorpio. Venus' ingress into Purvashada will also be supportive of sentiment as Jupiter's aspect to Saturn perfects on Friday. Depending on how low we go early on, we could end the week at or above current levels.
In Mumbai, markets also succumbed to pessimism as the major indices failed to hold onto early gains that put them over key psychological levels of 10,000 on the Sensex and 3000 on the Nifty. The Sensex closed Friday at 9385 and the Nifty at 2810. Monday should be quite negative but look for a reversal Tuesday or Wednesday as transiting Mercury conjoins the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart. Friday looks quite favourable as the Moon transits Purva Phalguni while its lord Venus lords over Purvashada. Barring some catastrophic meltdown in the early part of the week, Indian markets should finish higher than current levels.
The Euro slipped back to 1.26 last week the bearishness in stocks pushed investors to once again seek safe haven in the US dollar. I think there could be more weakness at the start of the week, perhaps under 1.25, but look for the Euro to recover by week's end as Venus conjoins the natal Sun in the Euro chart. We should see a similar pattern in the Rupee which also lost ground last week and closed at 48.8. Early trading may push it above 50 but looks for strengthening by Friday at least back to current levels and then some.
Crude oil fell sharply last week and opens Monday at $57. With Sun and Mercury transiting the 6th house of the Futures chart, more declines are likely early in the week, and we will likely see $55 easily broken. Some bounce is likely by Friday so we return to current levels or slightly above. Crude prices will likely continue to weaken through December, however, as transiting Ketu aspects natal Jupiter
Gold made some modest gains to $742 last week, just as the Sun was leaving Libra, its sign of debilitation. I think gold is likely to move higher this week as the Sun is joined by Mercury in Scorpio after midweek.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/16/2008 04:45:00 PM EST
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Weekly Forecast -- week of November 10 - 14
US stocks fell 4% last week on a post-election sell off as the Dow closed at 8943 and the SPX at 930. I had expected a negative week on the basis of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, but was somewhat disappointed that the decline wasn't bigger. In retrospect, the market saw gains when the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment was most exact, so that it another reminder that the exactitude of transit aspects should not be given greater importance over other factors. One could make a better case for the triggering effects of Mercury moving into Rahu-ruled Swati on Wednesday as the explanation for the decline.
This week will see Jupiter (expansion) move into closer harmonic alignment with both Saturn (restriction) and Uranus (sudden energy). While Jupiter with Uranus often connotes sharp rises, Saturn's role in this multi-planet alignment may dampen market enthusiasm. We may also see subtle sentiment shifts in some sectors as both Venus and Mars have just changed signs. Venus has moved into Sagittarius to join Jupiter and this may assist the consumer sector in a general way. Mars has now entered Scorpio, a sign it rules, and should therefore be regarded as a stronger planet. Of course, strength alone is neither positive or negative for the market, but can indicate that Mars has a greater say in market direction. By virtue of entering Scorpio, Mars has now moved into a tense alignment with Saturn and Uranus which now occupy signs 4 signs away. This aspect is still far from being exact so it would be mistaken to ascribe too much influence to it. As the aspect becomes more exact, we can expect the negative side of Mars to be expressed through declines. For the moment, though, it seems relatively unafflicted, so it is unlikely to push prices down. Another potentially significant aspect this week is the conjunction of Venus and Pluto that occurs on Wednesday. Venus can be seen to represent money in this case, while Pluto symbolizes power and control. On the face of it, this may be a bullish influence for the market. However, sudden falls following the conjunction are common, and indeed one cannot assume that they will correspond exactly to the moment of conjunction itself.
Against my expectations, Indian stocks rose last week as the Sensex closed at 9964 and the Nifty at 2973. While prices did fall towards the end of the week, I was surprised by the extent of early week rise. Market movements reflected the NSE horoscope quite well as markets fell Wednesday and Thursday as transiting Sun conjoined the natal Rahu. While I did not foresee Friday's rise, it was also plausibly indicated through transiting Venus conjoining the NSE ascendant. My error was in ascribing too much influence to the simultaneous transit of Mars to the 12th house cusp of this chart. With transiting Ketu moving away from the natal Mars, it is not unreasonable to believe that the worst losses of the market are now behind us in the short term. This aspect was exactly conjunct in October when the losses were at their steepest. Transiting Sun comes to the natal Jupiter this week so some gains seem likely, although perhaps they will be subject to rapid profit taking as Mercury will conjoin malefic Rahu late in the week.
Most global currencies rallied against the US dollar last week as the banking situation normalized and confidence returned. The Euro even traded above 1.30 earlier in the week and closed Friday's session at 1.27. This was much stronger than I had expected. It seems that the US dollar rally may be over for the short term. I think more gains are possible this week as the Venus-Pluto conjunction may provide a boost for an acquisitiveness thus boosting demand in local currencies. The Rupee is also likely to benefit from this improvement in sentiment.
Crude oil fell back to $61 last week as transiting Mars afflicted the ascendant in the Futures chart. As Mars moves away from this sensitive point, we can expect crude to rise, perhaps sharply. One possible unknown is that the Venus-Pluto conjunction will occur very close to the natal Ketu-Neptune in the Futures chart. It is possible that this will reflect a negative sentiment towards crude, but Ketu is a very changeable planet and it can be converted, as it were, from a malefic to a benefic if the benefic influences on it predominate.
Gold rose modestly last week as it closed at $738. Part of the explanation for the gain lay in the aspect between the transiting Sun and the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. While this only accounted for perhaps two days' influence, it may have been enough to temporarily offset the longer term background influence of transiting Ketu on the natal Moon. Although Ketu remains a negative influence on Gold now, it is possible we may again see a temporary rise this week as transiting Mercury now falls under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter. Perhaps more than usual, gold prices will reflect a struggle between Ketu (bearish) and Mercury (bullish).
For a more detailed forecast, please consult the MVA Investor Newsletter, now available by subscription only.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/09/2008 03:18:00 PM EST
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Weekly Forecast -- week of November 3 - 7
Stocks rose over 10% last week on the belief that the worst of the financial crisis has passed. In advance of the US election on Tuesday, the Dow opens trading this week at 9325 while the S&P stands at 968. While I had foreseen some midweek gains last week, I missed the strength of this rally and assumed an earlier beginning to the negative sentiment that will result from the Saturn-Uranus aspect. I grossly underestimated the positive effect of Venus entering Jyestha on the 27th while its lord Mercury was very strong. This resulted in a growth in investor confidence and pushed prices higher, albeit on fairly modest volume.
As I have indicated previously, the markets this week will be heavily influenced by the malefic t-square involving Venus, Saturn and Uranus. The Saturn-Uranus aspect is exact on Tuesday, while Venus forms tense squares with both of these slow moving malefics on Monday. It's quite a negative picture, and with the added feature of a nasty and close US election, there is a real possibility for some unexpected developments that could rattle markets. We also have Mercury in Libra now which therefore draws more negative Saturn energy from its 3rd house aspect to Libra. Moreover, Mercury will move into malefic Swati that is ruled by Rahu on Tuesday evening, just as the polls close. This suggests that the election may be a significant factor in the market.
Overall, this week looks very negative, and the only real question is how low it will go and when that low will be reached. While I think there is a genuine risk of a major 10-15% sell off like we saw in early October, there is a good chance the decline will be more modest. I think we might see the interim low towards the end of the week, but next week also looks fairly negative, especially towards Friday the 14th. A retest of 7773 is still very much in the cards here, although I am not at all certain we will get there. It may be more prudent to expect 8100-8500 this week, but much depends on how bad Monday and Tuesday are. If they are strongly negative and we get down to about 8500 by Tuesday, then a retest becomes more likely in the very near term. A retest also becomes more of a probable eventuality if something unexpected occurs with the election. In any event, this may be a good week to contemplate covering outstanding short positions. Volatility will likely spike once again as a result of the blending of Saturn and Uranus' contradictory planetary energies.
One reason why I am not certain will retest the Oct 10 lows is that some new research I've done suggests that we are more likely to see lower lows in mid-December. In fact, those are more likely to test the 2002-2003 lows of 7100 than anything we will see this week or next. Investors thinking of buying into the market for a longer duration would be well advised to wait until December.
Indian stocks put up some impressive gains as the indices rose 12%. The Sensex opens Monday at 9788 while the Nifty sits at 2885. Notwithstanding my mistaken call for last week, I am maintaining a very bearish outlook for Mumbai this week. Look for substantial losses this week with the week's lows occurring on Thursday or Friday. Transiting Sun will conjoin the NSE Rahu and come under the malefic aspect of the natal Mars on Friday while transiting Mars sits in the 12th house of loss. This is a very bearish configuration that could push prices down at least 10% for the week. There is also a chance we will retest the Oct 27 lows, although I admit I am not certain of this, as next week looks sufficiently negative that it may result in still lower levels.
As stocks advanced last week, so did most currencies against the US dollar. The Euro rose sharply and opens the week above 1.27. With the fall in stocks this week, we can expect to see most of last week's gains disappear. Transiting Mars will aspect the natal Ketu in the Euro chart. As a possible trigger, the transiting Moon will conjoin that natal Ketu on Thursday. This may well mark the largest decline on the week. I expect a low around 1.22-1.25, if not below 1.20 intraday. Other currencies like the Rupee will likely also fall in the coming week, perhaps back to the 50-51 level. Even if the US dollar rises significantly over the next two weeks, I think we won't see the high in the dollar until December.
Crude oil rebounded last week on improved economic sentiment and opens the week at $67. Look for a sell off early in the week as the Venus-Saturn-Uranus configuration activates the angles in the Futures chart. We may well be under $60 by Wednesday. I would not be surprised to see $55 this week or next.
Gold enjoyed a brief rally midweek but fell late sharply on Friday and opens Monday at $718. My bearish outlook for gold remains is unchanged as transiting Sun is still debilitated in Libra. What's worse this week is that it will come closer to the negative influence of Saturn towards the end of the week. I think we will see gold below $700 this week, perhaps well below. There is a lot of technical support at $650 so that is an obvious price target to watch for in the coming days. It may well get there over the next two weeks, but it is not certain. A more reliable low in gold will occur in December.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 11/2/2008 05:24:00 PM EST
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Weekly Forecast -- week of Oct 27 - 31
Global stock markets continued their downward spiral last week as investors weighed the implications of a prolonged worldwide recession. US stocks lost 6% as the Dow closed Friday at 8378 while the SPX stood at 876. This was largely in keeping with last week's mostly bearish forecast as the market prepared itself for a retest of the Oct 10 lows this week with Friday's harried decline.
This week I think it is certain we will see a retest of the recent lows and in all likelihood the 2003 lows also. This may occur as soon as Monday the 27th as the Moon conjoins Mercury in a negative alignment with both malefics, Mars and Saturn. Indeed, Monday looks like the most negative day this week so it is likely we will see a close below 8000 on the Dow and 840 on the SPX. I would not be surprised to see 7500 on an intraday basis. Tuesday will probably begin negatively but there is a good chance for a rally in the afternoon in advance of the Sun-Moon conjunction later in the day. The market may rally on Wednesday but the end of the week looks quite unstable and probably negative as Mars comes under the exact aspect of Saturn.
In terms of when the interim low will be reached, I'm still not certain if it will occur this week or next week. While this week's planets look worse than next week's, it is possible that this reflects a greater percentage decline rather than the bottom of the market. Monday will probably see the larger loss and it may well prove to be the interim low, but that may also occur Friday the 31st or even sometime next week, albeit will less dramatic single day drops. More cautious investors would do well to consider covering some short positions Monday just in case Friday does not quite return to Monday's levels. And with some kind of modest rally likely in November, it may be worthwhile to take some speculative long positions during the down days this week and next.
Indian markets were savaged last week after the RBI left rates unchanged Friday. The Nifty lost 12% in a single day and closed at 2584 while the Sensex ended Friday's bloodbath at an unbelievable 8701. My forecast had been fairly bearish about last week and correctly noted that Friday (and this Monday) would be the worst day(s). I also wondered aloud if 2000 on the Nifty was a possibility now. What seemed unrealistically gloomy last week, now seems much more plausible. This is a level with some technical support dating back to 2005 and given the probable volatility over the next two weeks seems more reachable. That said, I think that the greater portion of the declines have already taken place with the Mars conjunction to the BSE Rahu. Even with the likelihood of a decent November rally, investors should be cautious as December looks quite negative again. If the Nifty manages to stay above 2000 here, say, with lows in the 2200-2400 range, it may ultimately test that support level in December. With a shortened trading week for the Diwali holiday, look for another big down day Monday with a gain Wednesday, followed by another down day Friday.
With the ongoing financial turmoil creating high levels of fear, the US dollar has taken flight. As predicted, the Euro fell below 1.30 last week and opens Monday at 1.2624. With the Moon-Mercury conjunction occuring right on top of the natal Euro Mars on Monday, look for another huge sell off, perhaps as low as 1.20 by Tuesday morning. Friday may see the Euro fall below 1.20, perhaps decisively. Even with a rally later in November, the US dollar will likely rally again against the Euro and most other currencies in December with the greenback hitting a high around December 12. The trend will likely reverse after that. In all likelihood, the above pattern will apply to the Indian Rupee also with further declines in the next two weeks of 5-10%.
Crude oil also plunged last week amidst fears of economic slowdown and the US dollar appreciation and closed at $64. This conformed well with last week's forecast for crude below $70. $60 seems inevitable this week as the Futures chart is still heavily afflicted. Transiting Sun conjoins Saturn early in the week while transiting Mercury opposes Mars at the end of the week making for very bearish bookends. Look for an interim low in crude next week somewhere in the $50-55 range.
Gold also experienced sharp declines last week on the US dollar rally and closed Friday at $730. This was in keeping with our expectations that gold is headed to the $650 support level by December, perhaps sooner. Look for gold to plunge Monday as transiting Mercury is in tense aspect with the Futures natal Saturn. I would not be surprised to see it fall below $700 then, or perhaps later in the week. With transiting Ketu conjoining the natal Moon in this chart, look for gold to fall further in the next two weeks. The retest of these early November lows (perhaps around $650) will occur in mid-December.
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Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/26/2008 01:31:00 PM EDT
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Weekly Forecast -- week of October 20 - 24
US markets rebounded somewhat last week but remain highly volatile amidst continuing fears of a deep recession and global banking uncertainty. The Dow finished Friday's session 5% higher on the week and opens Monday at 8852 while the SPX sits at 940. While I had not expected the extent of last week's bounce, it's clear that the markets are indeed trying to form a bottom at this point and that some retest of the Oct 10 lows at 8000/840 is imminent.
This week looks mixed again although I think Monday and Tuesday looks more negative. It's even conceivable we could see a retest of those lows then, although I'm not sure there's enough malefic energy available to move the markets down another 10% in such a short time. Monday starts with the Moon aspecting Jupiter, a normally helpful influence. But with Jupiter is close aspect to Saturn and Rahu, I think Jupiter's impact here will only amplify the fear of investors and push the market down. Some up days are likely midweek, as the Moon transits Cancer Tuesday and Wednesday where it may alleviate anxiety. Some key indicators turn more clearly negative by week's end, however, as Mercury moves into bad aspect to Mars once again. If the retest does not occur this week, then a more probable date for it would be next Monday Oct 27, when many of the malefic aspects line up more exactly. Mercury will be quite close to Mars' influence, while Mars aspects malefic Rahu. I think we will see a close decisively below 8000 by then, perhaps as low as 7500.
It's possible that we will see some kind of meaningful bottom as soon as next week, so investors who are short may consider closing out some of those positions then. I still think we will see more down days than up days until at least the first week of November, so lower prices are still very possible after Oct 27. The date of the US election stands out as another possible lower low below 7500, as Saturn exactly opposes Uranus while Mars simultaneously squares Neptune. This configuration may represent an exogenous political event that could affect the markets very negatively.
Indian markets lost more ground last week as the Sensex closed below 10,000 for the first time in two years. The Sensex opens trading Monday at 9975 while the Nifty stands at 3074. While I had predicted a down week, I erroneously reversed the intraweek trend so that the positive days were actually in the early part of the week. This week looks quite uninspired although overall I think losses may not be as severe. Transiting Mars is approaching an aspect to the already afflicted natal Mars and the natal Rahu in the BSE chart so it's really only a matter of time when this explosively negative aspect manifests. My guess is that the worst of it will be Friday and then again next Monday Oct 27. The downside potential from this aspect is very large and I think we will see another big drop over the next two weeks, certainly well below 3000 on the Nifty. There's a lot of technical support at 2000 but that seems too large a drop to consider seriously. In the meantime, the start of the week looks negative as the Nifty may dip below 3000 with some rebound rallies possible into Wednesday or Thursday.
With stock markets bouncing back last week, the Euro managed to close the week mostly unchanged at 1.34, as late week pessimism erased the early week gains. With stocks preparing to fall again this week and next, I would look for the Euro to easily break below 1.30. We could see a big drop of 2 cents or more early in the week as the transiting Sun opposes the natal Saturn in the Euro chart. Friday and next Monday also look very bearish and likely reflects a further gain in the US dollar as a safe haven amidst volatile stock markets.
As predicted, crude oil traded below $70 last week although it rallied slightly on Friday to close at $72. I think we are likely to see more trading below $70 this week although there will still be some strength in the prices. Sentiment will turn very bearish by the end of the week, however, as transiting Mars opposes the natal Venus and the Sun conjoins natal Saturn in the Futures chart. In all likelihood, crude will be below $65 by next week, perhaps as low as $60.
Gold prices collapsed further last week as bullion closed at $788. While I had expected to see prices below $800 by November, this early extreme bearishness was a little unexpected. Any rallies will be very short lived this week as the major move down in gold will continue for the foreseeable future. Tuesday and Wednesday look best for gold this week as transiting Mercury conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart.
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Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/19/2008 07:26:00 PM EDT
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Weekly Forecast -- October 13 -17
Global stock markets crashed this week on fears the ongoing financial crisis will lead to a deep and prolonged recession. Most bourses lost between 15-20% of their value as the Dow finished at levels last seen in 2003. At the end of Friday's session, the Dow stood at 8451 while the S&P closed at 899. The New York indices bounced off key support levels (8000/840) during Friday's trading and thus prevented a full-blown market panic. While there was no single day decline that warranted the term "crash", it's clear that these markets capitulated this week. This confirms my prediction over the past weeks and months that early October would see a crash or crash-like event. Specifically, as far back as early September, I had isolated October 9-10 as the most likely dates for the most serious decline. Thursday October 9th saw the biggest single day drop in this current slide as American markets fell over 7%. On the 9th, Saturn's exact tense aspect with Rahu was punctuated by close aspects of the Sun and Moon and provided the downside energy for the markets to sell off hard.
Markets will now attempt to form some kind of bottom over the coming weeks through a process of rally, failed rally, and retesting of the the Oct 10 intraday lows. This week looks mixed at best as the early part of the week may see more downside probing of 8000/840. Although the aspect is now separating, Saturn is still quite close to Rahu's influence so some negative hangover effects may be present Monday and Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see 8000 breached intraday and a lower close from current levels is likely. Monday's close looks especially weak, so that might be the temporary bottom. Tuesday's Full Moon occurs in Pisces but fortunately is largely unafflicted, a possible sign that the next 29 days may not see significantly lower low. Mercury turns direct Wednesday afternoon so that is another possible indicator that sentiment may be improving. Overall, I think the market will finish near current levels although a downside bias seems more likely. Next week looks somewhat better although I don't foresee any major rallies until November.
As predicted, India's markets got clobbered last week as the Sensex shed 16% and Nifty posted a 14% loss as the credit freeze went global. The Sensex closed at 10,527 while the Nifty ended Friday at 3279. I'm not optimistic about prospects this week since Mercury's direct station occurs in fairly close tense aspect with the NSE's natal Saturn. This will make rallies fizzle fairly quickly and give more courage to those who are shorting the market. I think some intraday trades below 10k/3100 is quite possible although I do not expect any kind of massive decline here. By Friday, we'll probably be modest lower from current levels.
With all the fear in the markets, most currencies fell against the US dollar which acted as a safe haven against uncertainty. Although I was partially correct in calling for a stronger Euro last week, Friday's mayhem erased the midweek gains and it ended slightly above 1.34, down over 3 cents on the week. The Euro is going to fall further this week as the Sun comes under the influence of natal Ketu. I think 1.30 is very possible at some point this week as the US dollar rally will continue for the foreseeable future.
Last week's prediction of a huge decline in crude oil prices was correct, as crude was sideswiped by recession fears and closed Friday at $77, down from $94. This was even lower than my low range target of $80. Crude will probably go below $70 this week although I think there may be some strength later on and into next week that may bring it temporarily back above $70, perhaps even to $75.
Gold's safe haven status came into question as it sold off Friday and closed at $854. While gold fared better on the week than I expected, its sell off Friday was in keeping with our forecast. Gold listlessness here amidst the financial chaos ought to be food for thought for gold bugs. It is very unlikely to rally as long as banking fears are front and centre. It is likely to be flat at best or go lower in the early going, with Friday perhaps as a gain leading into higher prices next week. Depending on how low it gets this week, we may see $900 briefly again next week but not much more. Early November looks very bearish.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/12/2008 03:37:00 PM
Weekly Forecast -- October 6 - 10
The markets took it on the chin for yet another week on growing fears that the bailout bill will not prevent the economy from sliding into a deep recession. For the week, the Dow fell 7% to finish at 10,325 while the broader S&P500 declined 9% to 1099. While I correctly predicted noteworthy declines for Monday and Friday, I was far too sanguine about the week overall and underestimated the extent of the negativity. I will note that I was correct in calling for some kind of midweek rally, although it sputtered at 11,000, which was well below upper level expectation. Nonetheless, our default bearish stance has positioned us well as we head into what will likely be another difficult week after the markets sold off Friday on news of the passage of the bailout package.
We're now entering what I believe is the most bearish period so far as the Sun conjoins Mercury under the influence of Rahu on Tuesday while Saturn and Rahu are in tense aspect. A number of bearish hits to pertinent natal charts reinforce the notion that we may be facing an even larger decline this week. Taking it as a proxy for the whole market, the Nasdaq chart, for example, has transiting Mars conjoining the Descendant early in the week. This is a very bearish indicator and completes a t-square with the natal Moon-Mercury opposition. At the same time, the Sun-Mercury conjunction occurs atop the natal Uranus in that chart. Meanwhile, transiting Venus exactly opposes the natal Saturn on Tuesday. So there's no shortage of potential difficult energies there, although it is significant that they appear to focus on earlier in the week, mostly on Monday and possibly Tuesday as an indicator of larger declines. I expect the Dow will break decisively below 10,000 by intraday Tuesday at the latest, although the Tuesday close and Wednesday's trading might see a decent recovery back above 10,000 or higher.
I still think there is a potential for a more serious decline later in the week, especially on Thursday as the Moon conjoins Rahu and increases the intensity of the larger planetary configuration. While I've written previously about the possibility or even likelihood of a crash-type scenario in this time period, I don't want to fall into the common trap of 'astrological sensationalism' here. (or maybe I already have!) It's conceivable that the larger decline may be delayed until early November, as October sees high volatility and more downward probing below 10,000. That is a very real possibility that would not surprise me. But we may also be on the verge of the largest one-week decline here, perhaps over 10% and 9000 on the Dow, and investors should be aware of this potential. In a nutshell, I'm predicting a very (i.e. >5%) negative week , the only question is how negative it will be. I still think the markets are eventually headed down to 8000 or below by November, or December at the latest.
Mumbai lost 5% last week as Monday's afflicted New Moon in Virgo set up a negative pattern that proved to be too much for markets. The Nifty begins the week at 3818 while the Sensex opens at 12,526. There's little reason to be optimistic this week as Ketu bears down on the NSE natal Mars, and we could see a decline that pushes the Nifty back to 3600 or below. Friday looks terrible.
With Chinese markets were closed for the week, Tokyo could not escape the bearish mood as the Nikkei plunged 8% and stands at 10,938. It's very hard to imagine how the Nikkei will go anywhere but down this week with the double barrelled affliction to the natal Mercury from Saturn and Rahu. There's a good chance of breaking below 10,000 at some point. On Thursday and Friday, transiting Mars will aspect both Jupiter and Venus in the natal chart, which may be an indicator that the larger decline for the week. This is a hugely afflicted horoscope.
As predicted, last week the Euro collapsed below its support level of 1.38 as it lost 6 cents and closed Friday at 1,3784. While my outlook on the Euro remains hugely bearish, declines this week will be more modest and we may even see some gains. The weekend moves by European governments to shore up the banking system will likely help support the Euro somewhat this week as Venus conjoins the MC of the Euro ETF chart although any upside will likely be confined to early or mid-week.
Oil prices plunged last week on recession fears and finished below $94. While I had forecast prices below $100, I had thought they would not occur until this week. I expect this major decline of crude to continue and even accelerate this week, perhaps as low as $80-85, as significator Saturn is in tense aspect to Rahu with Sun and Moon playing supporting roles. In the Futures chart, transiting 12th lord Mars takes aim at the Moon-Saturn conjunction with lower prices as the most likely outcome. Even if there is some kind of relief rally towards the end of October, I wonder if we've seen the last of $100 crude for a while.
As predicted, gold continued its decline last week, although I underestimated the bearishness at it fell back over $50 to $833. As I wrote in my market updates this week, I no longer think there is enough upside in gold to push it back to $1000. There will be some smaller rallies that will likely hit $900 over the next few weeks but gold will start to move more negatively as we head into November. This week looks bad, especially towards the end of the week and we may see gold fall below $800 once again. If we manage some up days earlier, it may somewhat offset the declines that are likely for Thursday and Friday. Next week looks much better for gold.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 10/05/2008 06:14:00 PM
Weekly Forecast -- September 29 - October 3
As predicted, stocks in New York declined 3% last week, as the Mercury retrograde station in conjunction with Mars did, in fact, extend the losing streak on Wall St. While I had thought the damage might have been worse, we did approach the forecast targets as the Dow tested 10,700 and the S&P 1180. As this global financial crisis continues to unfold, the Dow opens Monday at 11,143 while the S&P is at 1213.
Much of the market's immediate fate seems to ride on the US government bailout plan. If it passes as expected on Sunday or Monday, then the market is likely to rally, perhaps substantially, over the coming week. While I had previously forecast early week declines, it's possible that these may not come to pass. Monday features a New Moon in Virgo. One possible difficulty here is that Virgo's ruler Mercury is in aspect to no less than three potentially disruptive planets -- Rahu, Uranus, and Neptune. Moreover, this New Moon occurs just one degree from the natal Rahu in the NYSE chart. Perhaps the malefic New Moon configuration will apply to trading sentiment in the coming month rather than the day of its occurrence. In any event, the market sentiment is likely to improve as the week progresses, so we very well may see net gains overall, regardless of the fate of the bailout package. With benefic Venus rising at the start of Monday's trading, 11,700 is very possible this week, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 12,000 at some point. Any prices near these levels may best be seen as exit points from the market for longer term investors. Watch for a decline on Friday, however, as Mercury will be in exact aspect to Rahu while Mars conjoins the natal Neptune and opposes the natal Saturn in the NYSE chart.
This may set up the jittery mood for next week from Oct 6 - 10 where I am still forecasting a significant decline, perhaps as much as 10%. Even if we have some kind of 'good news' rally this week, I still think next week's sell off will break below support levels of 10,500 and 1150. The second half of October is more favourable so we can expect some kind of rally in advance of another larger move down in November.
As predicted, Mumbai is coming off a terrible week in which it lost over 6% as the Sensex closed at 13,102 and the Nifty at 3985, their lowest levels since July. Whatever happens Monday, markets are more likely to rise this week as Venus applies to conjoin its natal position in the NSE chart. Next week will erase any gains made here and likely retest the lows. There is a very good chance that these lows will be broken -- Nifty 3800; Sensex 12,500.
The Nikkei was unchanged last week and opens Monday at 11,893. It is likely to move higher this week, especially with the Sun-Moon conjunction in good aspect to the natal Jupiter in the TSE chart. The bullish mood will likely come to and end by early next week, however, with the Sun-Mercury conjunction on the natal Neptune.
Against expectations, Shanghai was sharply higher last week as the government passed trading rules that cheered investors. The SSE opens at 2293 on Monday and will likely move higher as the Sun and Venus sit on the 9th and 10th house cusps respectively early in the week. It may take next week and the week following to take it under 2000.
The Euro had another bullish week and closed up one cent at 1.4588 on early week gains over the health of the financial financial system and the US dollar. While I've been wrong the past two weeks on the Euro, I think my bearish views may finally pay off this week as transiting Mars opposes the natal Saturn. 1.42 is possible. Wednesday looks the most positive day of the week as Moon and Venus will simultaneously conjoin the natal Jupiter in the FXE chart. Next week will likely see another bounce to 1.45 or higher as equities move lower.
Oil was up modestly last week and closed at $106. This week is likely to see continued strength in crude as Sun and Venus aspect their natal positions in the Futures chart. $110 is a possibility here, although it is unlikely to hold into next week as Mars conjoins the natal Moon-Saturn. Prices will see a sharp decline then and may move back to $100 or below. While a rally in crude is likely later in October, the longer term outlook into November and beyond is more negative.
As predicted, Gold was higher last week and closed Friday at $888. While I had thought it would be over $900 by now, at least it did trade above that level several times over the week. I think gold is likely to decline this week, although perhaps not by that much. Friday looks like it may be the best day for gold, as the Sun conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. My previous forecast of $1000 may have been a little premature, but I still that level is within reach over the next two weeks. In the near term, gold will likely peak in the second week of November.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 9/28/2008 05:03:00 PM
Weekly Forecast -- September 22 - 26
Global markets teetered on the brink last week as the banking crisis threatened to bring down the whole financial system. After steep early losses early in the week, the US government and Federal Reserve were compelled to intervene to stabilize the situation by bailing out the insurer AIG and injecting $700 billion into the system in an effort to restore shaken investor confidence. Markets rallied strongly Thursday and Friday and finished the week largely unchanged from Monday's open. The current situation remains extremely fragile and uncertain. My prediction two weeks ago for a significant decline on either Sep 12 or 15th was exactly on the money, as I had written that the American markets would retest their previous July lows at this time. This is exactly what happened as Monday's decline on the Dow broke through the all-important 11,000 level and Wednesday's close of 10,600 was even lower than the January low. Similarly the S&P breached the significant 1200 support level formed by the July low on Monday and hit 1150 on Wednesday. The Dow ended Friday's session at 11,388 while the S&P closed at 1255. While the strength of the late week rally was a little surprising to me, I did expect some gains later in the week.
Despite the astonishing recovery in the markets, my fundamental prediction for lower prices in the near term has not changed. This week looks mostly negative as the Sun-Pluto square perfects on Monday suggesting the possibility of a down day. Tuesday may see a bounce but we may end up testing 11,000 and 1200 at some point this week. Mars will conjoin the slowing Mercury on Tuesday and Mercury will turn retrograde on Wednesday so that is unlikely to help matters. A 2-3% decline is possible there, probably on Wednesday. I think Friday looks negative also, however and the following Monday the 29th looks even worse, so that could be another a new significant move down below 10,500 and 1150. We may see a 5% decline on Monday the 29th. This is going to get ugly very quickly. By mid-October, we could be below 9000 on the Dow. So what I'm predicting here is something akin to a crash. I'm not certain there will be a single, one day capitulation but perhaps instead a series of smaller drops. However, October 6-10 does look worse than most other time windows here, so if a crash occurs, it would most likely be then. One can't help but paraphrase the Prince song, 'we're going to party like it's 1929...'
Mumbai is coming off a similarly roller coaster week as the Sensex opens at 14,042 and the Nifty at 4245. After the predicted early week losses pushed indices down sharply, markets rallied on improved sentiment. My prediction that previous lows would not be breached was largely correct as the Nifty only got down to 3915. Monday will see the catch up rally, but the mood should darken after that. Hard to say if the week will finish up overall -- much depends on how negative the Mercury retrograde station is. What's particularly troubling about this Mercury-Mars conjunction is that it occurs exactly conjunction the natal Mercury of the NSE chart. This seems very disruptive, and may indicate substantial declines. I would not bank on any substantial gains after Monday. The following Monday the 29th looks quite grave, so we can expect the old lows to be knocked out by next week at the latest. That will mean 3800 on the Nifty and 12,500 on the Sensex. After that, I think there will be at least another 10% decline in early October. Buckle up.
Tokyo also got caught up in the financial vortex as the Nikkei closed lower and ended the week at 11,920, despite a huge rally on Friday. As predicted, the early week losses did break through the March lows as the index sank as low as 11,500. After a rally Monday, next week will see further erosion on the downside. The next support level is 11,000 which dates back to 2005 and that will be in jeopardy by the 29th. Transiting Saturn is applying to square the natal Mercury in the TSE chart over the next couple of weeks, so it's clear that Tokyo is headed much lower.
Shanghai also did not escape the market turmoil last week and did indeed break well below the 2000 level on the SSE as we predicted. It finished the week mostly unchanged and opens trading Monday at 2075. As a result of the chaos, the Bank of China changed some key trading rules, so it's possible that declines will be more modest this week than on other bourses. Nonetheless, the Mercury-Mars conjunction occurs very close to the Part of Fortune in the SSE chart, so it seems that Shanghai will follow other world markets lower. I think it will close below 2000 by week's end. By the second week of October, it may be close to 1600.
The Euro had a strong week as it gained 3 cents to finish at 1.4474. While I did not foresee this move up, I am maintaining my bearish stance as this week looks more clearly negative. The transiting Sun is moving away from the natal ascendant, while Mercury and Mars transit close to the aspect of natal Ketu. We will likely see 1.40 again by week's end or by next Monday at the latest. With all of these US government bailouts, the Fed may be forced to raise rates to defend the dollar which would spell disaster for the Euro.
Oil finished the week strong, as crude futures closed Friday above $104. While I did expect to see some upside above $100 last week, I thought prices would generally be weaker as the trend is to the downside. There is a chance for some modest short term gains this week, but the planets looks generally more bearish as the week progresses as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Saturn in the Futures chart on Friday. We could see $90 again over the next two weeks with the price continuing to fall through October back to $80 or below.
Last week, I thought Gold looked "volatile" with "daily $20 moves in both directions". Quite true, but I grossly underestimated the upside potential later in the week with the approach of Venus and Mercury to the MC of the GLD chart. I thought it would rise, but nowhere near as much as it did. Gold experienced its biggest one-day rise ever as it soared $80 in a single session. Its intraday high was $900 and finally settled at $864 at the close on Friday. I think bullion is poised to rise again this week, likely to well over $900. By next Monday the 29th, it may get to $1000 as the transiting Sun conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. I believe gold is likely to trend higher until at least mid-October and by that time we may see prices well above $1000, perhaps to $1100. Calling a top in such a turbulent and chaotic market will be difficult. Gold will not stay at those lofty levels for long, however, so I am expecting a price collapse late in October or November back to current levels or below.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 9/21/2008 05:44:00 PM
Weekly Forecast -- September 15 - 19
Stocks in New York finished slightly higher last week overcoming continuing anxiety over the viability of the financial sector in the wake of the credit crisis. While I had been more bearish last week, much of my forecast for caution was based upon the assumption that the decline would begin with Friday's session which ended up being neutral. The negative potential of the Mars-Rahu aspect has yet to be played out however, so the decline will likely take place on Monday and perhaps carry over into Tuesday. Perhaps the failure to save Lehman Bros. may be the news required to send the market back under 11,000. The Dow opens Monday's session at 11,421 and the S&P at 1242.
This week looks negative overall as Monday and Tuesday's gloomy sentiment will likely override any offsetting gains later in the week. The Sun moves into Virgo late Tuesday, so that may generate a little positive energy as it leaves the company of Saturn in Leo and joins somewhat more auspicious company of Venus, Mars and Mercury in Virgo. But by week's end, Venus moves into Libra thus leaving Mercury to fend for itself against Mars. Friday, therefore, could see another decline. The Sun is applying to square Pluto by Friday and over the weekend, while transiting Mars is moving closer to oppose the natal Moon in the NYSE chart so that's another reason to exercise caution this week. Wednesday and Thursday look like the best chance for gains this week. Nonetheless, there's a real possibility the market could end up below 11,000 here. This retesting on the downside is preparation for a substantial decline in late September or more likely the first week of October that will take the market decisively under 10,000.
As predicted, Mumbai lost ground last week as the Sensex opens Monday at 14,000 even and the Nifty at 4228. I was also correct in calling the early week gains and the erosion of confidence towards Friday. Look for more declines, perhaps even larger ones this week as transiting Mars conjoins natal Rahu and squares Jupiter in the Nifty natal chart. While I don't think there will be a retesting of the July lows (12,800; 3800) this week, we could get half way there, at least on an intraweek basis. Some bargain hunting may bring things back up a bit midweek, but we'll probably finish well off these levels. By early October, there will be a global market retreat that will pull the indexes down sharply.
Tokyo was unchanged last week as the Nikkei opens trading Monday at 12,212. Since the Friday sell off did not occur as predicted, stocks managed to stave off losses on the basis of Monday's predicted gains. There's a chance of the Nikkei retesting its March lows of 11,800 early in the week, although I think the rest of week will see some recovery. Next week looks worse so those March lows will likely be knocked out then.
As predicted, Shanghai declined another 5% last week as the SSE opens at 2079. While Friday's session was not negative, Monday's will likely be quite bearish as the transiting Mars aspects the natal Rahu in the SSE Composite chart. It's difficult to see much upward strength here, so we may see prices below 2000 for the first time since October 2007. Once Chinese stocks correct fully over the next month or two, there will be an excellent buying opportunity near 1500.
As predicted, the Euro did trade below 1.40 midweek. It recovered by week's end to 1.4217, down half a cent on the week. While there is a chance for some early week gains, by Wednesday the Euro is likely to trend downward. The decline could be severe to the point where it may be trading well below 1.40 by Friday. Look for the Euro to fall very sharply in the coming weeks.
As predicted, crude oil held above $100 last week, but just barely. Overall, market sentiment was more negative than forecast as it closed above $101 on Friday. There's a chance of more upside early on this week, but generally this looks like a down week. There's a very good chance oil will close well below $100 by Friday, perhaps down to $95. Oil looks quite negative over the next two weeks as Venus and Mars move into Libra and hence come under the malefic influence of the natal Saturn and Mars in the Futures chart. I would not be surprised to see crude tumble below $90 in the short term.
As predicted, Gold dropped below $780 last week and opens Monday at $764. I was still overly optimistic in my forecast and thought there would be more of an early rally than there was. Also I did not foresee the downside probing into the $740 range. Gold this week looks volatile, and we may see daily $20 moves in both directions. I would not be surprised to see bullion drop below $740. As Venus and Mercury approach the MC of the GLD chart later in the week, there is a chance for some upside here, although next week looks better overall.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 9/14/2008 03:25:00 PM
Weekly Forecast -- September 8 - 12
New York is coming off a gloomy week as stocks dropped 3% on bad employment numbers and continuing fears that a recession is in the offing. Although I did not foresee the big sell off Thursday, my fears for a negative week were largely realized as the Dow closed at 11,220 and the S&P at 1242. As it turned out the Moon-Sun-Saturn-Jupiter configuration at 18 degrees of their respective signs on Thursday was a reminder of how the perfection of soft aspects can lead to declines as investors seek relief by cashing out. This is not unlike the abundance of similarly soft aspects that marked the 1987 crash.
While there is an opportunity for gains earlier in the week, I think caution is the best strategy here with a number of potentially negative influences coming together for Friday's session. Jupiter turns direct in time for Monday which may create some basis for optimism but the squaring of Mars and Mercury to Jupiter puts that in jeopardy. Venus squares the Moon-Jupiter conjunction on Tuesday so that might be the best chance for a gain this week. By Friday, the Sun opposes unpredictable Uranus while Mercury-Venus-Mars come under the destabilizing aspect of Rahu. This promises to be a high volume session with a lot of volatility and my guess it will be on the downside. The Moon conjoins Rahu that day indicating that investors will be acting more on emotions than reasoned analysis. Much of this configuration is still in effect for next Monday the 15th, so it's going to be a risky time to be in the market. A retesting of the July lows (10,700 intraday) is very likely here, and there is a greater than normal risk of a major sell off down below 10,.500. We may even move below 10,000 depending on how much offsetting upside we have early in the week. An additional factor here is that the Mercury-Venus-Mars-Rahu pattern will activate the natal Saturn in the USA chart. While this needn't directly indicate stock market decline, it likely signifies an event that is significant enough that it will have negative market ramifications. This could be grim and likely the start of another leg down into the bear market abyss.
Mumbai was largely unchanged last week as it gamely resisted the widespread global pullback. The Sensex begins at 14,483 while the Nifty stands at 4352. While I thought Indian markets may have a little more upside movement, this outcome largely confirms the forecast for minimal change. This week looks negative overall, although with a caveat that if New York only moves lower in Friday' session, then the bulk of the fallout may be delayed until next Monday's session on the 15th.
Also, the early week gains may somewhat offset the losses towards the end of the week.
As predicted, Tokyo moved lower last week and the Nikkei stands at 12,212. There should be some decent gains in the early week that may push the market above 12,600. As with other Asian markets, Friday's bearishness may carry over or be delayed until Monday. The Mercury-Venus-Mars will conjoin the 4th house cusp of the TSE chart thus adding extra punch to the move down.
Shanghai is also coming off yet another bad week and opens at 2202. Transiting Ketu continues to have its way with the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction of the SSE Composite chart. Towards the end of the week the transiting Sun falls under the aspect of the natal Rahu thus providing the probable spark for selling. Shanghai is likely to follow other global markets lower in this move.
I was spectacularly wrong on the Euro last week as it continued to move downward and closed at 1.4267. Certainly, the Euro is on the way down in the medium term and is likely headed for par with the US dollar. The decline will likely continue this week particularly as the Mercury-Venus-Mars comes to the natal Mars in the Euro chart. 1.40 is possible.
Oil fell sharply last week in the wake of the brief spike above $117 brought on by hurricane Gustav. While I had expected falling prices later in the week, particularly after the separation of the Sun-Saturn conjunction, I was surprised by the extent of the decline back to $106. Last week's action gave support to the notion that Saturn is the significator for Oil and the Sun's combustion is an affliction that tends to bring prices down. I think there won't be too much more downside this week, as prices should stay above $100 intraday. Look for gains to accrue midweek so that we may see some trades at $110 at some point. Given the recent inverse relationship between crude prices and equities, it is tempting to think that Oil will move up with Friday's likely down move. I'm not sure that will be the case this time, however.
Gold also moved down sharply last week and opens at $802. I had thought there would be more upside in the early going, but the negative influence of Saturn on the Sun predominated throughout the whole week. Gold may bounce back a little in the early week, perhaps to $820 as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. The end of the week is harder to figure with the Sun-Uranus opposition although I think the downside risk is larger than upside potential. Gold is in bear market territory so the default bias is negative, particularly with transiting Saturn moving into exact opposition to the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. There's a very real chance of a wholesale sell off here towards the $780 support level. More cautious traders looking for a rally would be better advised to wait until next week and after.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 9/07/2008 03:53:00 PM
Weekly Forecast -- week of Sep 1 - 5
As predicted, New York stocks finished down last week, as the Dow closed at 11,543 and the S&P at 1282. The 1% drop was a more modest decline than forecast and reflected Thursday's unexpected gains in advance of the Venus-Pluto square. The persistence of bad economic news is making it hard for this market to rally, and the planets aren't helping either. This market is now residing in a fairly nondescript anteroom of a very frightening house of bear market horrors.
This week looks mixed, as stocks may start weaker Tuesday and Wednesday after the Monday holiday for Labor Day. Tuesday in particular may feature some anxious tendencies as the Moon is in aspect to Rahu in Hasta. There's a good chance prices will head higher towards the end of this week after the Sun has moved past its conjunction with Saturn. Thursday may have the most bullish configuration (at least on paper) as the Moon joins an assortment of planets around 18 degrees of their respective signs. If the early week losses stay above 11,300, then there's a good chance the market will finish higher overall. Nonetheless, I'm not at all confident that there will be many more gains here. The risk of significant losses will increase towards the end of next week and particularly with the Full Moon on Monday the 15th. There is a very real chance of of breaking below the July lows at that time.
Mumbai stocks eked out a slight gain last week as the Sensex stands at 14,564 and the Nifty at 4360. Early week trading should be mostly negative as the transiting Moon and Venus oppose Saturn in the Nifty chart. While prices may fall, they are unlikely to go below 14,000. Late week trading looks more positive as the Moon moves into the 5th house of Libra in the Nifty chart. Overall, the week may close fairly near current levels, with a minimal upside bias.
Tokyo rose about 3% last week and opens at 13,072. While I had hinted at the chance for gains last week, this move up was surprising. The tough sledding early in the week may prevent much more upside this week, although if Tuesday is positive with the Moon in Virgo joining Mercury, Venus, and Mars, then we can look for more gains overall. On Tuesday, the transiting Moon will join Venus as both will be in fairly close aspect to the natal Jupiter in the TSE chart.
Chinese stocks continue to drag along the bottom here, below all the moving averages as the Shanghai Composite opens trading Monday at 2397. With the square aspect of transiting Mars to the natal Venus in the SSE chart Monday, stocks should decline significantly, perhaps below 2300. By week's end, however, prices should rise with the transits of Mercury and Venus into the 9th house of the SSE chart. 2400-2450 are reasonable targets here.
The Euro sank backwards a bit last week and stands at 1.4674. I had thought we would see more of a rally underway by now but it seems we will have to wait for this week's trading. Monday and Tuesday will likely be higher with the higher oil prices in any event and will correspond with the transiting Moon in Virgo joining Mercury and Venus near the ascendant in the Euro chart. 1.48 is likely, possibly higher. But as transiting Mars squares its natal position by Friday, the Euro may slip back to 1.47. Next week may take the Euro back above 1.50.
Oil closed above $115 last week, and hit $118 in intraday trading, basically confirming our bullish forecast. Prices are continuing this upward trend today in a special trading session to handle market demands in advance of the likely disruption of supply by hurricane Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico. This upward trend will probably continue until Wednesday and the Sun-Saturn conjunction. It will be interesting to see when prices start to fall back as this conjunction will be in near exact square aspect to the natal Jupiter in the futures chart. Whatever the price spike here, prices are likely to come back below $118 by week's end, possibly down to $116. There is a chance that crude will fall only starting Friday, since there will be a grand trine formed with transiting Sun/Saturn, Jupiter, and natal Venus in the Futures chart. Next week looks bullish.
Gold closed marginally higher last week in keeping (barely) with the forecast and opens trading at $836. Intraday trades were as high as $844, indicating a tentative exploration of that crucial $850 resistance level. I think Gold may reach $850 this week but is unlikely to hold on to it by week's end. $900 is looking very possible by the end of September at the latest, but possibly as soon as September 15th.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 8/31/2008 09:13:00 PM
August 24, 2008 Weekly Forecast
After a fairly volatile week that featured days of both triple digit losses and gains, New York finished slightly lower. The Dow closed at 11,628 and the S&P at 1292. Last week's forecast had called for a little more upside bias but the early week rally never materialized as the Mars-Pluto square had more energy than I had anticipated. Friday's rally was possibly the result of the approaching Mercury-Venus-Uranus configuration but all in all, the minimal price movement was within expectations.
I think this week looks bearish, especially towards the end as Mercury and Venus both square Pluto. This week is more likely to begin fairly strong, however, as Mercury and Venus move into Virgo to join Mars. There's a reasonable chance we'll see 12k here, but the late week trading suggests that any gains made here won't last by Friday so 11,300-11,500 seems like a better downside target. With the long Labor Day weekend ahead and no trading next Monday, there is a chance that some of the bearishness may be held off until Tuesday Sept 2nd. Nonetheless, Friday should be a down day.
While I had expected some meaningful rally to take place over the next few weeks, I'm much less convinced this will be the case. I think the big down days will overwhelm the up days so the best we can hope for are mini-rallies back to 11,000 - 11,500 from sell offs that are likely to occur in the next two weeks. Once we get into October, all bets are off. I'm very concerned that some kind of major decline in just around the corner, starting in the second half of October, although most of the negative energy is focused around the last week of October and first week of November. This coincides with the US presidential election, so that may be in the mix in some way. The Dow will almost certainly drop below 10,000 at that time, depending on how far it falls before the major selling event occurs. Investors who are long here and are looking to take profits would do well to sell into any rallies in the coming weeks. I would consider anything above 11,500 as acceptable, and 12,000 as heaven sent.
Mumbai closed lower last week on the renewed strength in commodities and fear of inflation. The Sensex finished Friday at 14,401 and the Nifty at 4327. I had thought the early week would produce more gains that would be able to withstand the predicted late week sell off but the market had other ideas. The Mercury-Venus conjunction moves over the 8th house cusp in the Sensex chart early in the week, so that may indicate volatility. Gains may be short-lived, however, as the late week action looks more negative. A Friday close above 14,000 would be fairly decent.
Tokyo's Nikkei had a very bad last week and closed Friday at 12,666, down almost 3%, it's lowest level since March. It's finally starting to catch up to some of the other global equity markets. While a negative outcome is likely here, I do note some patterns of strength in the natal chart of the TSE. The transiting Sun conjoins the ascendant in the Topix chart while Mercury and Venus apply to the natal Jupiter in early Virgo. It's possible that the declines will be relatively smaller than last week's. There is even an outside chance at some net gains here.
The Euro rallied last week on renewed strength in commodities and geopolitical fears over Georgia and opens the week at 1.4792. I believe the worst is over for now for the Euro and this week should see gains, perhaps back to 1.50. As Mercury and Venus move into Virgo, they will both be approaching the Euro's ascendant at 5 Virgo thus providing an upward momentum to prices. 1.55 still seems like a realistic short term target here as the Euro's days in the sun wind down before the autumnal slaughter.
After a volatile week that saw Oil rise above $121 on Russia-US geopolitical tensions, crude settled very close to where it began the week at $114. While I mistakenly thought there would be an early week decline, at least I did foresee the late week recovery in prices. The question now is can Oil hold above $112? I think the answer is yes, although I acknowledge the possibility we may see a retest of long term support levels in the coming weeks. This week looks quite strong, although I think the volatility will continue as we could see price moves of 3% either way. Assuming Monday isn't too negative and prices stay above $112, $116 is a reasonable intraweek target. There's more upside in crude in the coming weeks, so $132 is quite possible at some point.
Gold rallied off its catastrophic lows last week and closed at $829. Like Oil, I expected more early week difficulty that in retrospect had already been manifested by the previous week's sell off. As predicted, the late week trading was generally kinder to Gold as it moved sharply above $800. I'm guardedly optimistic about Gold this week, although next week looks better as transiting Sun moves closer to Saturn in Leo and the Jupiter aspect. If early week declines are below $800, Friday's trading should take it back to current levels and above. For traders waiting for a return to $850, next week seems like a better bet.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 8/24/2008 06:26:00 PM
August 17, 2008 Weekly Forecast
Despite the continuing correction in commodites and the new-found strength in the US dollar, New York equities were unchanged last week. This is perhaps a sign that we've reached the upper limits of this immediate rally and another dose of good economic news is needed before the next step is taken above 12,000. The Dow closed Friday at 11,659 and the S&P at 1298. This confirms last week's forecast for a holding pattern of current levels. The intraweek trends unfolded more or less as predicted as we saw some significant pullbacks midweek below 11,400 with Mercury conjoining Saturn and the end of the week saw gains.
There are a couple of key aspects to watch this week. The potentially damaging Mars-Pluto square perfected on Sunday but this may have enough punch to push prices down, particularly early in the week, especially Tuesday, when the transiting Moon completes a fairly close t-square. Monday's open may be very positive as the Moon conjoins the natal Venus in the SPX Futures chart in opposition to both transiting Mercury and Venus. I would not be surprised to see a 150 point rise in the Dow in the morning. Tuesday runs the risk of erasing all of Monday's gains with the t-square. The other key aspect is actually a multi-planet affair involving the Mercury-Venus conjunction on Thursday. While the conjunction is a combining a positive energies, the problem is the close opposition to destablilizing Uranus. It's very possible that these three planets could make for sudden movement towards the end of the week. Certainly, trade volumes will rise and we will probably see some wide swings in prices and a major move. Overall, the week has an upward potential but much depends on Friday's trading. If Friday turns out to be positive, then the market may well get to 12k. If, however, Friday turns out to be negative, then the market will end up lower than current levels. A defensive posture is probably the most prudent course as I think the downside risk, though not at all certain, is potentially large.
The Sensex lost 2% in a shortened trading week and stands at 14,724. While the forecast correctly identified the intraweek pattern of gains earlier and losses later on, I had expected a better outcome in Mumbai. This pattern will likely repeat this week as Monday and Tuesday appear favourable as transiting Mercury and Venus come under the benefic influence of Jupiter in the Nifty natal chart. 15,000 - 15,300 is a reasonable mid-week target but by week's end, however, look for sentiment to turn negative. While it's possible that Mumbai may delay the decline until next Monday, I think Friday's action looks problematic so we may end the week not far from where we started.
The Euro fell through its long term support level of 1.48 last week and opens Monday at 1.4689. While I had forecast some intraweek probing below this support level, I underestimated the strength of bearish sentiment. The retreat of the Euro will continue this week as the transiting Sun moves into the 12th house of loss in the natal chart. By Thursday, I would not be surprised to see it below 1.42. Friday's action presents an opportunity for a respite, however, as the Venus-Mercury conjunction lines up nicely in aspect to the Euro's Jupiter. If Friday's gain doesn't pan out, it may be delayed until Monday. It is doubtful if any gains made Friday, no matter how large, will retrace the losses earlier in the week, however.
Oil lost about 1% last week and opens trading Monday a little under $114. My forecast was largely correct in calling for crude to stay above it's long term support at $110 and for midweek gains. We did see some trades at $117, however briefly. I had thought we'd finish a little stronger but the rally in the US dollar was not to be denied. I think there's a very good chance Oil will breach it's support at $110 this week and fall back to perhaps $107-109. Transiting Sun comes under troublesome influence of natal Ketu early in the week so that may be the most difficult time. Some bounce back rally is possible at the end of the week that may put crude around that $110-112 level.
Gold suffered the greatest last week and opens at $792. What looked cheap and attractive last week, now looks precariously perched above the abyss. Last week, it was clear that August was going to be tough sledding for bullion as long as stationing transiting Ketu was locked onto the subperiod lord Mercury in the GLD ETF chart. That said, I was not fully expecting Gold to tumble as quickly as it has. The new reality for Gold is that it's far below its support level of $850 and with the US dollar rising, it enjoys very little appeal. Astrologically, things look fairly gloomy for the next couple of weeks. Monday may see another shocking sell off as the Mars-Pluto square forms around the GLD ascendant. $750 or lower is not out of the question in the early going next week, but the Mercury-Venus conjunction should boost prices by Friday and perhaps next Monday. It's hard to imagine the week will finish positive, but the late week action may at least cut the losses of the early week. It's also possible that Tuesday may be the new interim low and a rally ensues after that. Subperiod lord Mercury moves into Virgo on Sunday the 24th so that ought to give a little more support to Gold prices generally. But longer term, I think Gold still has to make new lows before making a meaningful rally back to where it was in early 2008. As a worse case scenario, I think we may see Gold hit as low as $650 by December.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 8/17/2008 10:43:00 PM
August 10, 2008 Weekly Forecast
The much-anticipated August rally is finally upon us as stock markets rallied strongly last week by over 3%. The Dow begins trading this week at 11,734 and the S&P at 1296. While I had expected this rally, I was a few days late in my timing as I thought there would be more significant declines last week. As it happened, Monday was the only down day in advance of the Mars-Uranus opposition. In retrospect, this aspect provided the energy rather than the direction for the market. The conjunction of Sun and Ketu in Mercury-ruled Ashlesha probably provided the necessary optimism to drive prices higher. Last week, Mercury had moved well past Ketu and was applying to benefic Venus. My revised forecast after Tuesday's big gain recognized that we are no longer in any immediate downside danger of retesting the July lows.
The key aspects this week will be the applying Mercury and Venus to Saturn in Leo. While Saturn's effects are often negative, this needn't be a very bearish contact given the trine aspect from Jupiter in Sagittarius. And yet, I think we will likely have some significant downside risk midweek as Mercury conjoins Saturn. This will still be far enough out of range from Jupiter for it to be helpful. Friday may be positive opportunity for gains as Venus is more closely aspected by Jupiter. Here I'm counting on the possible pessimism of the Sun-Neptune opposition to have been manifested on Thursday. Monday also looks fairly promising as both Mercury and Venus will still be Magha. So I think we'll see more of a mixed bag this week overall. The markets will probably finish close to current levels with an upside bias.
The Sensex rose modestly last week and starts Monday at 15,167. While gains are likely this week, the market may see some of them disappear by Friday with the approach of the Sun-Neptune opposition and the Mars-Pluto square. The Sensex natal chart (Jan 1 1986) has both Venus and then Mercury conjoining the natal Moon which should provide a protective effect so we may see prices above 15,500.
The Nikkei also enjoyed a slight gain last week and opens at 13,168. Transiting Venus and Mercury make very favourable grand trine aspects to Moon and Mars in the TSE natal chart so this should be enough to move prices higher. Tokyo has been underperforming of late, so it may be more likely to post a larger gain relative to other global indices. Further guaranteeing an upweek is the fact that both Venus and Mercury will be transiting the ascendant of the Topix chart. I think 13,500 is very likely as an intraweek high, possibly higher.
Perhaps the biggest story last week was the rapid recovery of the long abused U.S. dollar. The Euro fell 3 cents on Friday, its biggest single day drop in eight years. Overall, it dropped over 5 cents and opens Monday at 1.5006. Last week's plunge was in keeping with my bearish forecast for the Euro as transiting Mars completed the t-square with natal Mercury and Jupiter. While this was clearly a negative planetary configuration, I wasn't sure how much of a decline was possible. As it turned out, I greatly underestimated it. The Euro is now close to its 280-day moving average of about 1.48 and once below it, it may fall a long, long way. I don't think that time is upon us and it may have another several weeks above it's long term support levels. November will likely decimate the Euro and we could well see a 20% drop over a few weeks towards the end of 2008. We can look forward to a global economic shock at that time which will force the U.S. dollar back into the spotlight as the preferred default currency. A Euro on par with the greenback in 2009 is very possible. More immediately, I think the Euro is due to bounce back a bit this week after probing below 1.49 or 1.48 on Monday or Tuesday. The midweek period should be it come back above 1.50 to perhaps 1.51. Friday looks shaky though and we may see another sharp sell off. Overall, the Euro is likely to have some upside potential this week and close above 1.50.
Like the Euro, Oil dropped further in the wake of the recovery of the U.S. dollar and restored confidence in economic prospects. It opens trading at $115 on Monday. While I had originally been bullish on Oil, last Monday's action convinced me that a breakdown had occurred and the forecast was quickly revised downward. I think crude could touch as low as $110 Monday, but will make some gains through the week. There's a good chance we will see levels above $115 at some point and depending on Friday's volatility, there is an upside bias for the week.
Gold also reacted to the re-setting of the financial chess board last week as it plunged to $864 by Friday's close. I thought Gold would have more staying power above $900, but after Monday's grim trading, I knew that it was likely headed to revisit its long term support at $850. The transits of Venus and Mercury to Saturn in Leo this week should help Gold tread water here and perhaps move a little higher. Any movements below $850 this week should be temporary. Over the next 60 days, I think Gold is more likely to move higher than lower.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 8/10/2008 05:52:00 PM
August 3, 2008 Weekly Forecast
New York ended last week mostly unchanged and the Dow opens trading this week at 11,329 and the S&P at 1260. While my forecast for gains this week was not confirmed by Friday, prices rose above 11,600 at midweek thus providing a plausible exit point. With the Mercury-Ketu conjunction in Ashlesha, this week promises to be volatile with a negative bias especially on Monday and Tuesday. The Mars-Uranus opposition also perfects this week on Wednesday and this will likely add to the volatility. There's a real risk of closes below 11,000 here and that will likely be the interim bottom the market needs to move significantly higher in August.
Despite my belief that the bottom formation would start early with a lower close Friday, Bombay ended with modest gains last week and Sensex opens Monday at 14,656. With Mercury conjoining Ketu so close to the Ascendant in the Nifty Futures chart, I think further gains will be harder to come by this week. The sense of loss may be stronger earlier in the week as transiting Venus opposes the natal Saturn in the BSE 1875 chart. I expect some trades below 14k here, perhaps below 13,500. Once the Sun passes Ketu next week, this market will be on firmer ground to rally higher.
Tokyo was lower last week and opens Monday at 13,094. Last week's forecast did foresee some downward pressure on the Nikkei, and I was more or less correct in predicting little change. My larger oversight was missing Friday's selloff, which was likely due to the transiting Mercury coming under the influence of the natal Mars in the TSE chart. On Monday, the transiting Sun comes under this same probable negative influence of Mars so we can look for a down day. Much of the rest of the week is likely to be biased towards the downside, as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Saturn.
As predicted, the Euro lost more ground last week and opens Monday at 1.5565. There's likely more declines ahead this week as transiting Mars aspects the natal Mercury in the Euro chart. Early in the week looks worse, and we will see trades below 1.54. I would not be too surprised to see even 1.53 for that matter. There may be some late week recovery but not that much.
As predicted, Oil rose last week and opens at $125. I think there's more upside left in this rally, especially earlier in the week as transiting Sun is aspected by the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. I wouldn't be surprised to see $130 at some point, although gains will probably erode late in the week. Next week looks like another retracement down to $120.
Although our forecast was correct in calling for declines down to $900 last week, Gold finished down overall and opens Monday at $917. I had expected it to bounce back further towards $930 by week's end, hoping that the ingress of Venus into Leo Friday would give it a lift. As it turned out it only made it as high as $925 intraday and Friday was a disappointment. Monday's Venus-Pluto trine near the ascendant of the GLD chart should provide a boost in prices. The midweek action looks less solid, however, as Sun's conjoining with Ketu threatens to send prices lower. Volatility may be extreme this week. The end of the week should be stronger though, as Ashlesha lord Mercury moves into Leo. Overall, Gold should be higher by the end of the week, hopefully to $930.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 8/03/2008 03:55:00 PM
July 27, 2008 Weekly Forecast
New York was little changed last week after the early week rally did not hold. While the low-end forecast target of 11,600 was reached, the Dow ended the week slightly lower at 11,370 and the S&P at 1257. This week looks equally choppy, although I think the bias will be up. I am still expecting a significant rally to take place in August, but we may yet have a little more consolidation and re-testing to go. Monday may be negative as transiting Mars aspects the natal Saturn in the Dow 30 chart.
A solar eclipse occurs on Friday, so that be a signal of a trend reversal. If we get below 11,000 intraday this week, then that might be enough to propel the market higher over the next month. I think 12,700 is within reach in the next leg up. Late August or September is likely to see another top, however, which will set up the next big move down for the rest of the year which will likely knock out the previous bottom at 10,700 and possibly bring us down around 9000.
Bombay is coming off a good week and opens at 14,274. I think there may some downside bias for the Sensex this week, so perhaps it will lose some of its momentum from last week and probe below 13k. The Sun-Mercury conjunction on Wednesday occurs whilst the Moon is transiting the 12th house of the Nifty Futures chart. Moreover, Venus will come under the aspect of natal Ketu on Friday, so that is another possible negative influence.
As predicted, Tokyo is coming off a positive week and begins trading at 13,334. There's some potential for negativity this week as Sun and Mercury conjoin in he 12th house of the Topix chart. This may only manifest midweek, however, and the otherwise favourable influence of the TSE Jupiter on transiting Mercury and Sun may offset this early in the week. I don't see a big move either way.
As predicted, the Euro had a difficult week and finished at 1.5691. This week doesn't look quite as negative, but the momentum will likely continue to be flat or modestly negative. I don't think it will go much below 1.56. This will probably be a good week to short the Euro as next week promises to be another big move down, possibly to 1.52.
Oil is coming off another negative week, as forecast, and opens trading at $123. I think this will be a recovery week for crude as the Sun-Mercury conjunction occurs under the auspicious aspect of the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. The end of the week looks strongest so we may see prices push above $125. Monday may be negative, however, and we may see $120 intraday at some point.
Gold fell sharply last week and reached our target of $920 before ending the week at $928. The bottoming process is continuing here. Like the Euro, Gold will be vulnerable to large pullbacks next week, possibly under $900, but this week the price should hold fairly firm or even trend a bit higher. But given the risks next week, I would be reluctant to take any new long positions here.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 7/27/2008 04:43:00 PM
July 20, 2008 Weekly Forecast
New York is coming off an up week that may have temporarily stilled investor anxiety. After Tuesday's intraday low of 10,730, it seems that a growing number of participants are thinking that we have formed a bottom here. Our bullish forecast was confirmed with the 4% gain, although the strength of the optimism was somewhat unexpected. The Dow opens trading at 11,496 while the S&P sits at 1260.
I think the week upcoming is likely to see further gains with the approach of transiting Mars in aspect to Jupiter. Monday may see a drop, however, as transiting Sun falls under the square aspect of the natal Saturn in the 1792 chart. Tuesday may be more positive as Mercury is in trine aspect to Uranus as the Moon transits through Jupiter-ruled Purva Bhadrapada. Wednesday looks difficult. Friday also has the potential for a significant gain as Mars comes closest to the influence of Jupiter. Depending on how severe any early week sell offs may be, I think the market can rise to 11,800/1290. If the Dow falls back below 11,200 on Monday, then we may only finish modestly higher -- 11,500 - 11,600. Looking ahead, I think last week's lows will be retested eventually, perhaps as soon as the next two weeks. This market is not out of the woods yet.
Bombay followed on New York's lead last week and came off its lows of 12.5k and closed at 13,635, slightly above the previous week's levels. While there are some favourable influences this week, I'm less sure that the Sensex will finish higher. That's because transiting Mars (20 Leo) will fall under the 8th house aspect of natal Mars (20 Capricorn) in the IFN ETF chart at the end of the week. Venus (20 Cancer) also makes an aspect to chart ruler Mars so that may have a mitigating effect. Transiting Sun comes under the aspect of natal Rahu on Monday which may make the early part of the week negative. The best chance for gains may occur Wednesday or early Thursday as transiting Venus crosses the ascendant of the Nifty Futures chart.
Tokyo resisted the up trend last week and failed to rally and closed slightly lower at 12,803. This week looks mixed as transiting Venus comes under the influence of natal Mars in the TSE chart midweek. Some recovery is possible as transiting Sun is aspected by natal Jupiter and Mercury comes to the ascendant. 13k is a reasonably intraday target here and if Wednesday is not a major pullback, then I think there's an upside bias overall.
As forecast, the Euro did move past 1.60 but did not hold that psychologically important level. It ended lower on the week and opens Monday at 1.585. As the price of crude weakens, the Euro is vulnerable to sudden declines. Monday may be one such day, as transiting Venus opposes natal Uranus. Tuesday looks bullish as Mercury and Moon are configured with natal Jupiter. Overall, I think most of the action will be to the downside. Right now, I'm looking at Aug 6th as an interim bottom.
As predicted, Oil fell last week, and even broke through the target of $130. It opens trading Monday at $128. Crude will likely recover somewhat early in the week as transiting Venus comes under natal Jupiter's aspect in the Futures chart. Prices may rise above $135 before being vulnerable to declines later in the week as transiting Sun comes under the negative influence of natal Saturn. A finish near or somewhat below current levels is the most likely outcome.
The rally in Gold failed last week and it ended slightly lower, as forecast. While it did not probe our target $940 last week, it may well this week as transiting Mercury comes under the negative influence of Saturn in the GLD ETF chart late in the week. Overall, gold looks bearish this week, and possibly into next week also. Since Sun transits Saturn-ruled Pushya, I would not rule out $920.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 7/20/2008 04:19:00 PM
July 13 2008 Weekly Forecast
In the wake of last week's turbulence which saw new intraday lows below 11,000, fear and loathing remain the prevailing sentiments in world markets. The Dow begins the week at 11,100 and the S&P at 1239. While the Mars-Saturn conjunction did not bring a clear capitulation, the growing anxiety about the long term viability of mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac certainly reflected the tension and injury (Mars) inflicted on economic structures (Saturn). As forecast, the market did decline last week, although not quite as much as expected. The current level above 11k is a kind of purgatory that is neither low enough to generate a sense that the selling is over, and not high enough above the new lows to create a sense of security. So we need to come to a better understanding of just where the bottom is here. My thinking was that the time around the Mars-Saturn conjunction would mark an interim bottom, wherever it occurred. And yet without the capitulation sell off that pushed the market close to the 10,500 support level, I am uneasy with the thought that there is no more downside risk.
While volatility will likely characterize much of the upcoming week, I don't foresee a large decline. Monday looks fairly bullish as Sun trines Uranus and Mercury is trined by the natal Jupiter in the S&P Futures natal Jupiter. If we see a significant up day Monday (>1%), then the week may well be positive. Wednesday and Friday both look more bearish, so I'm reluctant to say there will be any big rallies here. Mercury, the planet of commerce, is transiting Ardra which is ruled by Rahu and generally creates an unstable foundation for action. But the bias seems more to the upside here. If the Monday rally is weak, then I would still hold open the possibility that we might close below 11,000 on Friday. Beyond that, the last chance for support levels to be tested would be the first week of August which looks quite negative. The crucial point there is that the last week of July will feature a trine between Mars and Jupiter that will create upward momentum that will likely move the market well enough above where we are here that any subsequent declines will not breach previous support levels.
Bombay held up well last week to remain unchanged and opens at 13,469. While the Sensex may flirt with 13,000, especially after Monday's catch-up, I don't foresee a weekly close much below current levels. Next week looks more difficult with some tense aspects forming in the IFN chart. A new interim low is more likely to form around the 23rd.
As predicted, Tokyo fell last week and opens this week at 13,039. With transiting Saturn now separating from its aspect to the natal Venus in the TSE chart, I think there's isn't a lot of downside pressure left here. Similarly, transiting Venus comes under the aspect of Jupiter while Sun applies to the ascendant. Overall, this suggests an upside bias for the week.
As predicted, the Euro is coming off a good week, and opens Monday at 1.5947. I somewhat underestimated the extent of the rise last week, as Venus transited through the sweet spot of the 11th house of gains. Monday looks like another good day as transiting Sun comes under the aspect of natal Jupiter. This may push the Euro over 1.60. Overall, I think early in the week looks favourable, but selling pressures may emerge towards Friday. Overall, I think we will end the week close to where we are now, perhaps a little higher. Next week looks like another high, especially around Tuesday.
Despite a pullback early in the week, Oil hit new highs and closed at $145 against our expectations. I still believe Oil will be susceptible to sharp sell offs going forward although it may not be a consistent move to the downside. I don't think we'll see $150 here and look for intraday lows down to $130.
Gold is coming off a big up week and opens Monday at $960. While our forecast was correct to call for lows below $920 which were achieved in early week intraday trading, I did not expect to see a rally so soon. Gold may retrench next week back below $940 before resuming its march back to $1000 in late July and August.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 7/13/2008 02:45:00 PM
July 6 2008 Weekly Forecast
As predicted, New York stocks fell last week as the Dow ended trading at 11,288 while the S&P stood at 1262. Sentiment is increasingly gloomy as the week's action confirmed that we are currently in a bear market -- down 20% from the 2007 highs. While the Dow managed to stay above 11,000 last week, next week promises to be even more newsworthy as the long-awaited Mars-Saturn conjunction occurs. Most observers agree that we're heading for another down week, the only question is how much. While there are whispers about the possibility of a crash here, I don't foresee things getting that bad. That said, the market is more vulnerable to sudden declines now that it has been in quite a while so I wouldn't want to rule out the possibility of the Dow going below 10,000 this week. A more likely scenario is for the markets to dip between 4-7% which would be 10,500-10,700 on the Dow and 1180-1210 on the S&P. If the rally on Monday takes off, then some of these downside targets may be tougher to meet. Nonetheless, I think we will see at least one day close decisively below 11,000/1230, and most likely Friday's close as well.
Monday has the chance for some gains as Mercury, Sun and Venus are in sidereal Gemini -- the only day they will do so -- while Moon is aspected by Jupiter. A rise of more than 1% is possible. Things may go south fairly quickly after that as the Sun opposes Jupiter on Wednesday the 9th which will set up both the Mars-Saturn conjunction and the bearish Mercury-Pluto opposition on the 10th. The possibility of a sudden market capitulation by Thursday may create some bonafide buying opportunities by Friday. After this week, we will likely be within 2-3% of an interim bottom that may be re-tested throughout July before a meaningful rally gets going in August. I would say there's a 50-50 chance that the interim lows will come this week.
In keeping with our previous forecast, Bombay is coming off another negative week in which it closed below 13,000 for the first time in many months. The Sensex opens Monday at 13,454. This week looks like more of the same with the perfection of Mars-Saturn, especially given the stresses in the IFN ETF chart. Tr Mars and Saturn will line up exactly opposite the IFN natal Venus and Mercury. I think we will see lower lows this week with a weekly close below 13,000, perhaps below 12,500. An intraday below 12k is also not out of the question.
Tokyo stands at 13,237 and has similarly been beaten down recently by dim economic prospects. The Thursday Mars-Saturn conjunction occurs right atop the ascendant of the Topix chart so it's hard to see how the Nikkei will do anything but go down. While there is a real chance of a snapback rally on Friday, we are looking at a re-testing of the March lows around 12k this week. Thus far, Tokyo has withstood the worst of the bearish mood and has remained well above its previous lows. This week looks like it plays a bit of catch up.
As expected, the Euro did have a tougher go of it this week, as the ECB signalled it had finished this round of rate cutting. While I had thought it would finish close to 1.58, Friday's sell off pushed it down and it opens at 1.5706. I think the Euro is poised to continue its longer term rally this week, although Monday looks quite negative. Transiting Mercury will pass over the MC and thereby form an opposition with Pluto on the Euro's IC. While not an obviously bullish pattern, it nonetheless looks significant and indicates that currency moves will be big this week. Overall, I expect the Euro will at least get back above 1.58. At the same time, however, some downside protection might be a good idea in case Pluto gets the upper hand.
As predicted, Gold was volatile last week and barely managed a gain overall, closing at $934. The early part of the week looks worst, as transiting Sun conjoins Saturn in the Futures chart. Friday may see a nice rally as Mercury is in aspect with Uranus in the Futures chart but generally, I'm not bullish on Gold here. I think we'll close lower for the week, possibly under $920 at some point intraweek Gold still has at least two more weeks to go before it makes a decisive break out move above $950 and launches another big run past $1000. I expect there will still be buying opportunities below $920 in the meantime. $900 entry points may no longer be possible.
While Oil failed to reach $150 last week, it did rally further to $145, as forecast. As Mercury moves out of the range of Rahu, however, there is less reason to stay with Oil. Mercury's entry into Gemini more or less spells the end of this current run-up so this week will likely see a significant decline in crude. Transiting Mars-Saturn will oppose the natal Venus in the Oil ETF chart which might push it down sharply, perhaps back to $130. The next week or two look mixed before another rally ensues after July 18th.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 7/06/2008 11:49:00 AM
June 29 2008 Weekly Forecast
Markets in New York slumped badly last week in advance of the Mars-Saturn conjunction. While I had thought we might sneak a decent week in before the inevitable deluge last week, I was a little off in my timing as losses deepened at the end of the week. The Dow starts Monday at 11,346, thus erasing the previous winter low and is now officially in bear market territory. The S&P is in modestly better shape at 1278, just one percent above its winter low, and down over 18% off its previous high. While exact market timing remains as elusive as ever, my overall bearish forecast has been borne out by June's decline. The question is, will the market continue to slide as the Mars-Saturn conjunction tightens?
Aside from the obvious intensifying of the aspect, I think there's good reason to think there is more downside here. It's possible we will see 11,000 and 1230 this week so there is good reason to stay short this market, at least until July 10th. My best guess here is that next week will be worse than this week. The natal Venus (10 AQ) in the S&P chart will receive the twin malefic energy of Mars and Saturn when they oppose it next week on July 10. The natal Mercury (7 AQ) in this chart will be opposed by transiting Mars on July 2-3 this week, so that might signal further significant declines. Monday doesn't look good with Moon in a square to the Mars-Saturn-Neptune at the open and may reinforce the gloom in the coming days. I wonder if Thursday is the best day of the week as Moon is conjunct Venus opposite Jupiter. With no trading Friday ahead of the July 4th long weekend, volume is likely to be lighter than normal so the mood may unrealistically buoyant. I don't want to preclude the possibility that we've seen the bulk of the decline already and we may be close to forming an interim bottom around here. This goes for all world markets.
The BSE is also coming off a tough week and opens at 13,802. Note how Friday's 600 pt decline corresponded with transiting Mars (3 LE) exactly opposing the natal Saturn (3 AQ) in the BSE 1875 chart. Now that it's broken through 14k, there is considerable room here for more declines. The IFN ETF chart resembles the S&P chart in that there are a few planets in Aquarius (Sun 3 AQ, Saturn 8 AQ, Venus 10AQ, Mercury 12 AQ) that are under pressure from transiting Mars and Saturn. While it is sometimes a mistake to expect the biggest moves when aspects come exact, it is still a useful rule of thumb. I would also add that there is no strong confirmatory bearish signal in the Nifty and BSE 1875 charts. Transiting Sun passes over the equal 12th house cusp in the Nifty chart towards the end of the week, so that might be the worst day of the week. The following week looks worse as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Rahu while tr Mercury conjoins the natal Mars (opposite natal Pluto). There is a good chance that losses may not be too extensive this week, but next week's negativity would keep me from being long in this market.
Tokyo is coming off a down week and opens at 13,544. The natal Saturn (6 LE) in the TSE chart will be conjoined by tr Mars early this week and signals further losses. The Topix chart has 10 Leo rising and this will get hit by both Mars and Saturn next week at the conjunction. Moreover, tr Mars will square the natal Mars (8 SC) creating a very intense and bearish configuration. This again confirms the likelihood that next week will be worse than this week. While Japanese markets have outperformed most other global markets thus far this year (the key indexes are both running Jupiter dasha), there's a decent chance it will play catch up on the downside in the second week of July. I think a close below 13,000 is likely.
As predicted, the Euro is coming off a solid week and starts at 1.5787, well above our 1.57 target. I think the Euro will have a tougher road this week as tr. Mars is closer to the equal 12th house cusp. We might see some gains in the US dollar early in the week which might push it down below 1.57. I think the buying will return later in the week, however, as the Moon transits the 10th and 11th houses in the natal chart. Overall, I think we'll finish near our current levels, maybe slightly above. The week following looks stronger so it's possible that the 1.60 level might be broken then as tr Mercury hits the 10th cusp.
As predicted, Gold had a good week against a flagging US dollar, rising above $900 and it opens Monday at $931. It's likely got more juice in the tank this week but it may be volatile. The charts show a conflicting picture. The iShares Comex Gold ETF chart (Jan 21 2005 9.30 NY) looks good as tr Jupiter in the 11th conjunct Sun and Mercury is reinforced by the aspect from transiting Venus. Tuesday may not be great, however, as tr Mercury and Moon oppose the Mars in this chart. Tr Venus conjoins the natal Saturn in the futures chart which may also be bearish. Wednesday and Thursday should see a return to strength as Moon and Sun will transit under the aspect of the Futures natal Jupiter. Hopefully, that puts Gold in the plus column for the week. The following week looks more uncertain. I'd be skeptical about any lasting up moves here. By contrast, I prefer the last week of July as the start of a lasting rally.
As predicted, Oil is coming off another bullish week as prices topped out at $142 before closing just above $140. With tr Mercury passing over the ascendant in the Futures and ETF chart under Rahu's aspect, this up trend is likely to continue. Wednesday the 2nd looks very strong as tr Venus comes under benefic aspect of Jupiter in the ETF chart. This current rally is likely to end July 8-10 when the Mars-Saturn opposes the natal Venus in the ETF chart while tr Mercury conjoins the natal Mars. We may be above $150 by then, so the decline might be sudden and take us back under $135. Another major rally is likely to start in the last week of July.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/29/2008 06:38:00 PM
June 22 Weekly Forecast
As predicted, stocks in New York fell this past week. We were even fortunate enough to hit our downside targets of 12,000 on the Dow and 1320 on the S&P. The Dow closed Friday perilously close to winter support levels of 11,842, while the S&P ended the week at 1317. Much of the bearishness could be attributed to the Mars-Ketu conjunction and the Sun-Venus opposition to Pluto, along with some difficult transits to the Dow 30 natal chart, particularly Sun and Venus coming to the 8th house Mars.
As transiting Mars now enters sidereal Leo and 'bears' down on Saturn, there is the likelihood for further declines in the near future. I don't think we will see them this week, however, as we may see some bargain hunting. The earlier part of the week looks more likely to decline, as Moon opposes Mars and Saturn. As the week goes on, we can expect more strength. If declines do occur early on, then the market may finish Friday around current levels, or maybe slightly above. If the declines Monday and Tuesday are more modest, then I would not be surprised to see 12,200 and 1350 on the indexes. But even in the best case scenario, this week will offer only a temporary respite from the overall downward trend. The following two weeks look more negative so we may retest winter lows then. At this point, I would say there's a 50% chance of breaking through Dow support (11,500) and SPX support (1270) in the coming weeks. Whatever lows are established then, we can look forward to a major rally in August.
The BSE also got caught up in the bearish mood and the Sensex closed down well below 15k to 14,571. This week looks better as Mercury begins to move forward again and sits atop the 11th house cusp in the Nifty Futures chart. Also the 11th house of gains in the India ETF chart is activated by the aspect from transiting Mars to the natal 11th house Sun. If the market manages to shrug off some early week negativity and avoid falling to 14k, it may make a close above 14,500-14,750.
Tokyo was down last week and opens Monday at 13,942. Like most global markets it is below its 200-day moving average, although its recent performance compares favourably with most other exchanges. It is one of the few equity markets that is currently trading above its 75-day moving average and is probably in a better position to weather further declines this year. This week more or less conforms to the pattern suggested above, with strength later in the week. In this case, the transiting Venus will aspect the natal Moon of the TSE chart and produce some significant rallies. Overall, I'm a little less optimistic for the week as a whole, as there seems to be more downward pressure early on, as transiting Mars will fall under the aspect of the natal Rahu, which combined with the malefic aspects to the transiting Moon may yield some steep losses.
As predicted, the Euro had a good week finishing above 1.56, although the intraweek action did not follow the forecast as Friday proved to be the best day. Monday and Tuesday look flat or weak as Moon enters the 6th house in the natal chart near Ketu. A drop back to 1.55 is possible here, but look for a nice rally Wednesday through Friday as transiting Venus closely aspects the natal Sun. I think there's a good chance we will finish higher for the week, possibly above 1.57.
Oil ended the week pretty much where it started, around $134, but not before it had rallied Monday above $139. I had thought a rally was likely and forecast a stabilizing of prices at some point. Friday's rally also caught me a little off guard as I had thought that most of the froth had been cleared. As the Moon transits through the 10th and 11th houses of the Futures chart (Aquarius and Pisces), there is good reason to think that Friday's rally may have some legs to it. While I had previously thought we were pretty much done with Oil in the short term, I'm less certain of that now. Mercury is moving forward now and forms an aspect with Rahu as it once again crosses the ascendant of the Futures chart. That is likely a bullish indicator that will likely manifest mostly next week (6/30). I think the bias is on the upside this week as well.
As predicted, Gold is coming off a good week as it managed to hit our target of $900. It opens trading Monday at $903. With Mars entering Leo and transiting Venus aspecting the natal Sun in the Futures chart, I think there is an upside bias this week that should push prices higher, possibly to $920. The following week also looks solidly bullish, perhaps even more so. Expect a pullback after that. July 10th, the date of the Mars-Saturn conjunction will almost certainly push gold prices down sharply.
P.S. I'm experiencing some server problems on my main
site. It will take a few more days to get it back up and running.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/22/2008 02:35:00 PM
June 15 Weekly Forecast
New York ended the week strongly but ended flat for the week as the Dow opens at 12,307 and SPX at 1360. I missed this late week rise, believing that the nastiness of the Mars-Ketu conjunction would cast a pall on whatever rosy fantasy the Venus-Neptune trine could conjure. No such luck. This week seems also biased towards the downside as the Mars-Ketu may offer some residual negativity while Venus and then the Sun oppose Pluto. Some late week rally is possible, especially after Mercury turns direct on Thursday morning (EDT), but overall, I think we will see continued retracement towards 12,000 and 1320. Monday may be the worst, however, as the Moon will square Saturn. With the Mars-Saturn conjunction in July still ahead, this may not be a good time to commit new money to the market. Friday will be an interesting battle as the Moon-Jupiter conjunction suggests a ray of optimism amidst the gathering gloom of the applying Mars-Neptune opposition. Given the proximity of the Sun-Pluto opposition that day, I would not bet on any bull run.
The BSE is coming off a down week and opens at 15,189. Thanks to the late week rally, this is higher than forecast and the Sensex remains above the psychologically important 15k level. Monday looks negative as the Moon is in square aspect to Saturn, while Mars has only just moved past Ketu in the sky. I believe it has yet to deliver its bearish karmic payload. Transiting Venus passing over the natal 12th house Mars in the Nifty Futures chart so that is another potential source of decline early in the week. While I think we're headed for a close decisively below 15k, I don't think declines here are going to be massive. There's a good chance we'll stay above 14k and may well be close to 15k until early July. After that, the lows may well be re-tested. Longer term, I am looking for some kind of substantial rally in August.
The Nikkei opens at 13,973 after a negative week. This week really does not look good for the TSE as both tr Venus and Sun will fall under the disruptive influence of the natal Ketu. While this is not in itself bearish, dispositor Mercury is going to be retrograde while tr Saturn is squaring the natal Venus very closely. 13,500 is very possible here, although if we see a nasty Monday or Tuesday, it could go much lower.
The US dollar rallied strongly last week and the Euro bore the brunt of it. It opens trading Monday at 1.5393. I missed this move completely, although in retrospect, I can see the source of my error. My much-hoped for tr Venus to the natal Moon fell under the influence of the natal Ketu so this likely threw a wrench into the works. While central banks are trying to talk up the dollar, I still believe the Euro is due for a rally, as tr Venus moves over the natal Midheaven. It is possible that the Euro sell off continues given the presence of Pluto on the IC, but I think the bias will be towards the upside. Whatever direction the Euro takes, there is a good chance that it will be large -- possibly 2 cents in one day. At the same time, tr Mars conjoins the natal Rahu in the 12th opposite Neptune. This appears to be a very bearish indicator. One possible scenario is for a Euro rally early in the week back to 1.55 or 1.56 and then another decline Thursday and Friday back to current levels. It definitely looks volatile this week although I would like to think we finish higher than 1.54.
After an early week sell off, Oil rallied towards the end of the week but could not match last week's prices. It opens at $134.86. I think Oil will attempt another rally this week, as the tr Venus conjoins the natal Rahu in the Futures chart. With Pluto anchoring the aspect through an opposition aspect, there is a chance for a spectacular rally Monday or Tuesday. But it is anything but certain. More than anything, this combination suggests a large price swing and it could be in either direction. As the week progresses, prices should stabilize. I think we're getting very near the short term high and we may hit it this week, if we haven't already. Late June and July looks worse for Oil. Right now, I think there will be a significant negative turn in sentiment around July 5.
Following on my missed call for the Euro, and the bidding up of the greenback, the dominoes fell and Gold also had a bad week. It opens at $873, stuck in its current trading range between $850 and $950. The Venus-Sun opposition to Pluto this week contains the possibility for big moves here and there is a good chance they will be on the upside. In the Gold ETF chart, 5 Sagittarius rises, so the Pluto-Venus aspect will straddle the ascendant and create the potential for strong gains early in the week. Friday may also see a rise as Venus makes a good aspect to the natal Uranus in this chart. There's a reasonable chance to get back over $900 this week but much depends on Monday's action. If it's up, then we're likely headed substantially higher.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/14/2008 10:22:00 PM
June 8 Weekly Forecast
Stocks in New York plunged 3% on Friday and ended the week lower as the Dow closed at 12,209 and the S&P at 1360. This confirmed last week's bearish forecast for Friday in particular and for the negative trend on the week. If anything, I underestimated the extent of the pullback as I had thought the larger declines would come the week following with Mars conjoining Ketu. These declines are still imminent, however, so we will likely see more downside here. The end of the week looks especially negative with the tr Sun-Venus squaring Uranus and the tr Mars moving in close to Ketu as it conjoins the natal Uranus in the 1792 chart. If the market manages some gains midweek, it may limit the losses to perhaps 2-3%. But that looks like a best case scenario. The Dow may re-test its March lows of 11,750 at some point, while the S&P may find itself approaching its winter support level of 1320. Monday looks quite negative, while Tuesday will probably see a significant snapback rally as the Moon trines Jupiter. Buckle up.
Tokyo has stood up rather well of late and the Nikkei is still well above 14,000. This is about to change, however, as tr Saturn will square the natal 11th house Venus in the TSE chart. Monday will be predictably terrible, but look for a larger than NY's 3% loss as the transiting Moon conjoins both the transiting Saturn and the natal Saturn of this chart. Expect the short term low to occur early next week (June 16-18) as tr Sun-Venus will pass over the equal 12th house cusp. I think it will decline below 13,000.
The Euro had a big day Friday against the US dollar and closed at 1.5778. Its gain of 2 cents on the week was broadly in line with our bullish forecast. I think the Euro will continue to move higher this week as tr Sun-Venus is aspecting the natal chart ruler Mercury. 1.60 is well within reach. Tuesday may be the best day of the week, as the Tr Moon falls under the benefic aspect of natal Jupiter. Friday may also have some significant upside as Tr Venus conjoins the natal Moon in the 10th house. That may be an indicator of a new all-time high in the Euro against the dollar.
Oil had a record-setting day on Friday as it closed up over $10 to finish at $138. I had forecast that there would be a second leg up in this rally with the Sun-Venus conjunction moving to the ascendant of the futures chart, although I had thought it would not arrive until this week. Clearly, another major speculative rally is underway. Part of the difficulty calling the top concerns the ambiguity of the futures chart itself. Its exact time of inception is unknown. If it is in fact 9.00 a.m as Friday's rally would strongly suggest given the impact of Sun and Venus passing over the ascendant, then the rally may not have that much further to go. One possible sign of a top would be the Sun and Venus falling under the exact aspect of Rahu on Tuesday and Wednesday. I don't think it will be done then, however, as Sun and Venus will trine Neptune on Friday. Neptune is considered by many astrologers to be the significator for oil. It's usually impossible calling the date and level of the exact market top but I think Friday is the most likely candidate. I have no idea what the price might be by then. $150 seems almost certain given all the talk, and it may be much higher than that. Whatever day it turns out to be, I don't think we will see much downward movement until perhaps the Mercury station on the 19th. This will be aspected by the Jupiter in the Oil futures chart, so its separation from this favourable energy may take some of the enthusiasm out of this market.
With the result of the dollar weakeness, Gold rose sharply on Friday and closed at $899. While my forecast mixed up the days for the larger price movements, I did mention $900 as a possible close and I did allude to increased volatility. It's noteworthy that the greater than normal number of aspects in the Gold futures chart equated to a big gain, even though many of the aspects involved malefics and supposedly hard aspects. I think Gold is likely headed higher this week, although there is an opposition aspect from tr Mars to the natal Moon in the ETF chart that makes me wonder if we won't see at least one negative day. $920 seems within reach. Monday looks positive as tr Moon will be aspected by the natal Jupiter. I think this short term up trend will probably continue into early next week, up until about June 18th. Actually, there seems to be a general bullish trend until perhaps the first week of July when Sun and Venus will be aspected by the natal Jupiter. I would not be surprised to see gold at $950 by then.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 6/07/2008 12:15:00 PM
June 1 2008 Weekly Forecast
New York is coming off a modest gain last week and starts at 12,638/1400. Monday looks bearish as Moon will fall under square aspect of Saturn. Tuesday may see a nice bounce back as Moon joins the Sun Venus in Taurus. Friday looks bearish as Moon is in Cancer with Mars and Ketu and Cancer rises at the start of the trading day. Overall, we probably won't end up too far from current levels, although there seems to be more downside risk here.
The Euro slipped under 1.56 and begins trading Monday at 1.5536. I had thought it would fare better, although I was cautious overall as I expected a pullback the following week. As it turned out, I was a few days early. Monday will bode well as Mercury gradually backs away from the negative influence of the natal Ketu. I don't foresee a huge move either way this week, although the the bias seems to be on the upside.
As predicted, Oil fell below $130 last week and begins the week at $127. I think we may see strength Monday and Tuesday as Moon, Sun and Venus are all in Taurus in close aspect to the futures natal Jupiter. There could be another rally towards $130. Any early week highs probably won't hold as the rest of the week looks middling. The week following looks stronger.
Gold had a tough week and fell back to $890. While I had been bullish last week, I did forecast a decline back to the $900 level for the following week so I jumped the gun there also. Gold looks bullish Monday and maybe into Tuesday. But I'm interested to see what the effect of the tr. Mars conjoining the natal Moon in the futures chart. Also, tr Sun and Venus will oppose the natal Mars. Those are some potentially troublesome influences, and yet I'm reluctant to forecast further declines here. If anything, it suggest activity and probably volatility. One possible scenario is a rise towards $910 early in the week and a drop back below $900 towards the end of the week.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 06/01/2008 at 10.10 PM
May 25 Weekly Forecast
New York finished the week down over 3%, closing at 12,479 on the Dow and 1375 on the SPX. While I had foreseen this decline, I had thought we would be spared the brunt of it until Thursday or Friday and into next week. As it happened, the decline came early on Wednesday and pushed the markets decisively below key resistance levels. I think we have some more downside left on this move down this week. The Mercury retrograde station on Monday looms large in this respect, even if it falls on a day when the markets are closed. Tuesday and Wednesday therefore look most vulnerable to sell offs. On Tuesday, Venus squares Saturn while Moon opposes Saturn, a very difficult pattern and points to a significant loss, most likely greater than 1%, perhaps as high as 2%. This should set the tone for the rest of the week and we should finish lower across the board. There's a chance that the March lows will be re-tested here, but it's more likely we'll see between 1320-1330 as an intraday bottom and finishing somewhat above that. The following week looks strong, so look the market to attempt yet another rally.
The Euro is coming off a strong week and starts Monday at 1.5755. While I had spotted the supporting influence of Sun and Venus in the 9th house, my forecast for a down week was off the mark as the stationing Mercury did not suffer any ill effects from the natal Ketu. The current uptrend is likely to continue next week as the Venus in Taurus still sits very close to the 9th house cusp. Thursday may be the best day, as Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter.
As predicted, Oil continued its march ever upward and we did easily pass $130. After the high of $135 on Wednesday, the market showed signs of weakening as the rally on Friday only got it back to $132. Given the central role of the stationing Mercury to this price spike, I am eager to see what the market looks like on the other side of Monday's station. There's a good chance that the reversal in Mercury's direction may be reflected in a similar reversal of the upward trend. I think a large move back under $130 is a plausible scenario for the week, with a possible upturn by Friday. Overall, I think the week looks negative but we'll probably see another large rally by the second week of June.
Despite my negative outlook, Gold is coming off a bullish week and opens trading at $925. I think it's likely to repeat this performance and may end up bumping up against resistance levels in the $940-950 range. Tr Sun and Venus are moving closer to the trinal aspect of natal Jupiter in the ETF chart which is a positive signal. The following week or two will see Gold fall back towards $900, however, as the consolidation process continues.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/25/2008 08:39:00 AM
May 18 Weekly Forecast
New York is coming off an up week and opens Monday at 12,986/1425. My forecast ran aground on the expectation of an early week sell off which did not materialize. In hindsight, much of the rise can be attributed to the transiting Sun-Jupiter trine which overrode any afflictions in the SPX chart. The late-week rise on the Sun-Moon-Jupiter grand trine was in keeping with the forecast, however, but by then the market was already on firmer territory.
While the Venus-Jupiter trine has perfected Sunday, I think there may be enough optimism left in the separating aspect to move prices up into Monday. The bullish move will likely be further supported by the Moon's aspect to Venus at the start of trading. Venus squares Neptune on Tuesday, however, which might be a time for an unsustainable rally which ultimately fails by the close. Transiting Venus also conjoins the natal Mercury in the 1792 chart, so that is probably another boost for the market mid-week. More negatively, the Sun will be in square aspect to Saturn on Thursday and Friday, so both those days may see the market under water, although Friday is worse. On balance the up momentum is significant this week, so we may close up overall, although not by much given Friday's probable decline. Things look more troubled next week as Mercury turns retrograde on Monday. This is can be a factor that reverses the prevailing trend, and since we've been moving up recently, it's reasonable to see this is as a bearish signal. Another important dimension to this retrograde station is that it occurs in close aspect to Rahu. This intensifies the feelings of unease and uncertainty connected with trading and may correspond to significant computer glitches as well. Moreover, Monday the 26th will feature Venus in square aspect to Saturn and Sun in tight aspect with the natal Rahu of the 1792 chart. Overall, not a good mix.
The Euro opens at 1.5576, up almost a full cent on the week. Although it was down below 1.54 intraday early in the week, I underestimated the bullish effects of the partile Tr. Uranus conjunction to natal Jupiter. As transiting lagna lord Mercury slows down, it comes under the aspect of the natal Ketu, which is a negative influence. This may be held off for part of the week by the bullish effect of transiting Sun and Venus in the 9th house of the natal chart. But here only Monday and Friday look positive. My best guess is that the Euro will finish down for the week, possibly below 1.55.
Oil continues to defy my bearish expectations as it finished above $126 once again. While it did touch below $122 earlier in the week, it bounced right back, fueled by ongoing speculation and the cheerleading provided by Goldman Sachs. It seems that the transiting Mercury to the ascendant of the futures chart was not price neutral after all. It's still pretty close to the ascendant this week, so I'm reluctant to predict any major declines and we may see $130. The presence of the Rahu aspect to Mercury says nothing, if not "speculation". I don't fully understand why the tr Mars to the futures Moon-Saturn has not provided enough downside pressure on prices. Perhaps it's a case of just being offset by Mercury hovering close to the ascendant. We may have to wait for Mercury to turn retrograde on the 26th and thereby turn away from the ascendant and out of Rahu's influence for prices to fall significantly. This is likely going to be very volatile for a few weeks as long as Mercury is within range of Rahu.
Gold opens at $899, up modestly from the previous week. I had thought trading would be choppy with early week weakness and that wasn't entirely off the mark, although the size of the swings surprised me. Monday looks good as Tr. Moon opposes Venus in soft aspect to the natal Venus in the futures chart. Midweek looks more problematic as Mercury opposes the Pluto in the ETF chart. Overall, I think Gold finishes lower on the week, but there are enough upward signals here to warrant some daily up moves, too.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/18/2008 01:28:00 PM
May 11 Weekly Forecast
New York is coming off a moderately negative week and opens at 12,745/1388. While I had thought the market would finish somewhat higher by Friday, these levels are in line with my worse-case intraday expectation of 1390 on the SPX. With Jupiter now retrograde, I think we are going to see some fundamental shifts in sentiment in the coming weeks as the glass will begin to appear half-empty to more market players. I don't think the market will go straight down from here though, since a rally of some size is likely heading into mid-June.
Last week, I predicted that Monday the 12th may see a substantial decline. I still think there is a big downside risk early this week owing to the simultaneous aspecting of transiting Mars and Saturn to the SPX natal Mercury. Also tr Mercury opposes the natal SPX Saturn as well, making the density of these contacts very high, and largely negative. Discerning outcomes is made more complicated since tr Jupiter trines tr Sun (a bullish influence) and these planets are exactly aligned with the Mars-Ketu conjunction in the SPX chart. While I think this natal contact essentially neutralizes the favourable influence of the trine, I acknowledge there is a slight possibility that the market could go the other way and rally. Regardless, I think Monday-Tuesday will see large price swings, most probably to the downside. The latter part of the week starting on Wednesday looks like a nice rally as a grand trine forms between tr Jupiter, Moon, and Sun. Overall, I think the market will finish the week lower with possible intraday lows of 12,500/1350.
Although I was steadfast in my belief that the recent run-up on Indian markets is nothing but a bear market rally, I thought the rise would last through last week. It didn't, and the BSE finished lower and opens at 16,737. In retrospect, I underestimated the negative impact of the late week tr Mars aspect to the natal Moon in the Nifty Futures chart. The Sun-nodal t-square perfects this week just as the tr Sun passes over the natal Saturn in the Nifty chart creating a situation of extreme uncertainty and confusion leading to fear. This aspect makes its closest pass on Tuesday and Wednesday, on the heels of the likely Monday sell off in NY. A close under 16k is possible here and negative week seems the most likely outcome although with a decent snapback rally late in the week, the Sensex may not be down by that much. My sense is that this isn't the end of the bear market rally and we may see more sizable rallies up until about June 10.
I was similarly sanguine about the TSE last week which finished lower at 13,655, although I was correct in predicting the end of the week weakness. This global bearish pattern for the week is also seen in the Tokyo chart. Tr Mars opposes natal Jupiter, although interestingly it doesn't perfect until later in the week. The Sun-nodal t-square also affects this chart, as the Sun is just four degrees from its natal position on Monday. Note also that the transiting Moon joins Ketu on Monday for added punch. This chart looks less afflicted than either NY or Mumbai, so it's possible the decline may be less here.
The Euro closed fractionally higher last week and opens at 1.5492. While I had forecast a down week, my projection for intraday lows of 1.53 was spot on as the Euro hit that level twice on Wednesday and Thursday. However, it bounced back sharply both times and even managed a decent gain on Friday. The Sun-nodal t-square will hit the Euro head-on as the nodes sit in inverse conjunction to their natal position -- tr Rahu conjunct natal Ketu. I think the Euro will revisit 1.53 again this week and will probably go below it. With Jupiter no long applying to the natal Venus, I think the Euro is headed down over the next few weeks. We should be well under 1.50 by June.
Last week's bearish forecast missed the mark as Oil is coming off another record-setting week with an apparent speculative blow off top and closed Friday above $125. Well, the party may well be over -- at least for this week. Tr Mars squares the Moon-Saturn in the futures chart this week with the perfection of the aspect due mid-week. With tr Saturn also aspecting that natal conjunction, there is a real risk for a large drop, perhaps back under $115. At this point, I am interpreting tr Mercury coming to the ascendant of the futures chart as a sign of increased trading, rather than a bullish price indicator.
I was similarly overly negative on Gold last week as it closed at $885, up $30. While I had thought some good rallies were possible, I didn't think they would hold as much as they did. I'm generally bearish short term, as I think Gold is in the process of forming a bottom here so I am expecting more testing of $850 and below in the coming weeks. This week Gold seems poised to decline as tr Mercury opposes the natal futures Mars, while tr Mars squares the natal Uranus. This apparently bearish pattern is reinforced by some hard aspects in the GLD ETF chart. It won't be all downhill from here, although I think the bearishness is likely strongest on Monday and Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see $850 at some point this week, although I'm not wholly committed to the gloom for this week. The drift should be down, but prices could be choppy here.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/11/2008 01:11:00 PM
May 4 2008 Weekly Forecast
Despite last week's prediction to the contrary, New York is coming off another good week as it finished at or above some key resistance levels. The Dow opens at 13,058, the SPX at 1413. While closes above these levels should be seen as bullish indicators, it's important to note that low volume and iffy market breadth have made them less than convincing signs that we've definitely broken out of the current trading range. We're sitting in between some big planetary direction changes now as Saturn turned direction on Friday, while Jupiter turns retrograde on Friday. So a holding pattern may be the most likely outcome with no big moves either way. I think the coming week will likely see the market stay at or near these levels, with a bias to the upside. I would say there's a 30% chance we'll see 13,400/1450 at some point this week, and only a 20% chance to see any intraday below 12,800/1390. Monday looks like heavy trading on the upside as tr Mercury conjoins the SPX ascendant.
I am still maintaining a bearish stance here, however, so I would be cautious about going long in this market especially at these relatively lofty levels. The next key date I'm looking is May 12th, when tr Mercury opposes the SPX Saturn and tr Mars and tr Saturn both line up a 7 degrees of their respective signs -- both aspecting the SPX Mercury. I don't know how deep the next leg down will be, but it should take us at least half way back to the key support levels. The markets could start to lose ground towards the end of this week in anticipation for sharper declines in the week of the 12th.
Bombay is coming off a good week and the Sensex opens Monday at 17,600. I can't see any reason for the uptrend to change so we will likely see 18k at some point. In the Nifty Futures chart, for example, tr second lord Sun is dispositor of bhukti lord Saturn is conjunct the 10th house cusp early in the week. Tr 11th lord Venus is applying to this favourable position, while Mercury transits through the 11th house of gains. While I still believe that this is nothing but a bear market rally, I am loath to bet against it this week.
Tokyo broke through 14k level last week and opens Monday at 14,049. Tr Mars crosses the TSE ascendant early in the week and yet this is unlikely to cause much turbulence because tr Moon, Sun, and Venus will closely conjoin the TSE Mars in Aries. On Monday, tr Mercury will be just past the TSE Venus in the 11th house, so that also tends to be a bullish influence. 14,500 is possible here, but look for gains to fade by Friday although we should finish higher on the week.
As predicted, the Euro fell sharply last week and opens Monday at 1.5424. I think the downtrend will continue although not as strongly or as deliberately. Monday and Tuesday look like days of consolidation for the Euro so we may see it bounce back up to 1.55 intraday. Towards the end of the week, however, the US dollar will rally once again so 1.53 or below is very much on the table.
As predicted, Oil fell back from last week's highs and opens at $116. I correctly foresaw the dip down to $110, although Friday's recovery was somewhat surprising. I'm still very bearish on Oil both short and medium term and I think we are heading for $90 or less at some point in June. This week may only see relatively small declines to $112-114 and at least one big up day is still likely. Tr Mars has yet to get close enough to the natal Moon-Saturn to make the break below $110.
As predicted, Gold came down sharply and reached our target of $850 on Thursday. It starts the week at $857. I'm still bearish for Gold in the short term but this week may see it stay near current levels. Monday will probably see it fall further, perhaps below $850. We might make $830 a possible downside target somewhere along the line, although this seems like a worse case scenario. At some point, I think a $20 gain is possible but any rally likely won't stick. We should end the week lower overall.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/04/2008 04:23:00 PM
April 27 2008 Weekly Forecast
Stocks in New York finished modestly higher last week, contrary to expectations. It now appears that the stationing Saturn will need the help of the inner planets to form a square in order to push prices down which happens at the end of week. Another potential bearish influence may come from Mars, which on Monday enters sidereal Cancer, its sign of debilitation. The major indexes are approaching the upper end of their recent trading ranges as the Dow starts this week at 12,891 and the S&P at 1397.
I think there is a chance that stocks can hold on to these recent gains in the early part of the week but Thursday and Friday look negative and are likely to take the averages down. Overall, I think the market will finish lower for the week. The key factor in all of this is the effect of Mars entering Cancer. After spending the past six months in Gemini, the ingress of Mars into Cancer will introduce a new variable into the mix. It's possible that this new planetary equation may push markets down on Monday since Mars is the dispositor for all the inner planets -- Sun, Mercury and Venus. If markets drop Monday, then this would substantially increase the prospects for a negative week. As an added bearish factor, tr Mars will squares the natal Jupiter in the NYSE 1792 chart.
Bombay is coming off another bullish week closing at an impressive 17,125, as it capitalized on the tr Venus conjunction to the natal Moon in the IFN ETF chart. I think the Mars aspect to the natal Uranus will cause a sudden sell-off Monday or Tuesday. The further motion of Mars into Cancer is likely to create negative momentum to the market through the week so we're likely to see markets fall from current levels by Friday.
Tokyo was also up significantly last week and opens Monday at 13,863. The TSE exceeded last week's forecast from the surprising strength of the Venus-Rahu conjunction. While this is often a negative influence, the exact aspect from tr Jupiter to its dispositor Mars gave a big boost to the tr Venus. Since the TSE chart has 3 Cancer rising, the approach of Mars this week points to an increase in volume and volatility. I am also forecasting a decline here. Friday looks like the worst day.
As forecast, the Euro did hit 1.60 last week although it failed to hang on to gains. It starts the week above 1.56. This pullback was expected although we had thought it arrived a few days ahead of schedule. I expect this weakness to continue this week, as the Euro may fall to 1.53 or below at some point.
Oil closed higher least week as forecast, reaching as high as $119 and closing above $118. I am expecting oil to fall this week, perhaps sharply, as Venus conjoins the natal Mars in the futures chart and Mars begins to channel its debilitated energy to the Moon-Saturn conjunction in Libra. While there is a question of when the bearishness of Mars will manifest since the aspect will not perfect for another two weeks (May 13), I think the worsening condition of transiting Venus will be enough to push prices down. Tr Venus falls under the aspect of the natal Ketu early in the week, and by the end of the week it opposes the natal Saturn. That's more than enough constraint to correct prices back under $115, perhaps even lower to $110.
Like the Euro, the sell off in Gold started a little earlier than expected, as it closed at $889, falling almost 3% for the week. I was correct in noting the possible bearish effect of the tr Mars opposition to the natal Venus on Friday, as prices fell sharply. I expect the sell off to continue as tr Venus falls under the natal Saturn in the GLD ETF chart, while tr Mars aspects the natal Venus. This has the potential for a sharp decline, especially Monday and Friday. We may see a close below $850 this week. This would put Gold in striking distance of its 200 day moving average.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/27/2008 01:36:00 PM
April 20 2008 Weekly Forecast
After last week's bull run eviscerated my gloomy forecast, New York starts the week at 12,849/1390. The dominant aspect this week is the Mars-Jupiter opposition which perfects on Thursday. For extra complexity, Venus (28 Pisces) will form a western t-square on that date as it moves through the last degrees of exaltation in Pisces. And given the Uranus placement in the same degree of Aquarius, we have a fairly potent line-up of planets. I think this pattern is largely bearish, although Monday may be an up day as Venus is still within range of the S&P Moon. We may be able to approach the 13,000/1400 in the early going this week but head lower as the week wears on. Besides the troublesome Mars-Jupiter aspect, tr Mars falls under the aspect of the S&P Rahu, while tr Sun sits on the equal 12th house cusp on Thursday. These are really quite negative indications and suggest that down days greater than 1% in midweek are likely. Overall, we should finish lower this week, with a reasonable prospect that we'll end up significantly lower, back to 12,200/1325.
Bombay opens at 16,481 after an unexpected big rise last week. I think the BSE is going to be lower this week, breaking below 16k. Besides the Mars-Venus-Jupiter t-square, tr Mars squares the Sun in the BSE-100 chart. Transiting bhukti lord Mercury is very close to the equal 6th house cusp earlier in the week, so this may be a drag on prices before any substantial declines occur.
After a solid week as per our forecast, Tokyo opens at 13,476. Even with this bearish Mars-Jupiter pattern in the sky, I'm less negative about the TSE. While I think some down days are in store, especially later in the week, this may well turn out to be one of the stronger global equity markets. If we finish down for the week, it won't be by much. Next week, by contrast, looks much worse.
After flirting with $1.60 last week, the Euro opens at $1.58. I think we will see it break through $1.60 this week -- finally. Tr Mars comes under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter while tr Venus still aspects the Virgo lagna. Wednesday or Thursday look like the best days. Overall, we should finish up significantly for the week.
Oil is really the pivotal economic story these days as it opens at another all-time high of $116. Transiting bhukti lord Venus remains in exaltation in Pisces all week, so it looks generally bullish. However, we will see a chance for a big (>1%) pullback as tr Sun opposes the natal Moon-Saturn conjunction Tuesday and Wednesday. I think this transit will only generate one major down day so we'll probably finish Friday above current levels, but $120 may only be a 50-50 proposition.
At $915, Gold comes off a decent week, even if Friday's sell off was sharp. Monday looks negative as the residual bearish of transiting dasha lord Venus under the influence of natal Saturn. Also, tr Sun opposes the natal Uranus in the futures chart. I think the upward momentum will resume after that, although Friday is a question as the tr Mars opposes the natal Venus. On balance, I think we'll finish higher for the week. However, time is running out for Gold as next week the Jupiter station will really pull the rug out from this market in May and we could see prices break down to $850 or below. While I had previously thought that we had a window of opportunity to hit $1000 briefly before the big sell off, I no longer think this is possible. Especially if Monday is negative, I don't think there will be enough juice in the tank to get us there. We will likely have to wait until autumn for a chance to revisit the all-time highs.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/20/2008 02:00:00 PM
April 13 2008 Weekly Forecast
As predicted, the NYSE finished down last week amid new fears that corporate earnings may be vulnerable to fallout from the sub-prime crisis. The Dow opens at 12,325 and the S&P at 1332. I think we will see the markets move lower again this week, with Monday and Tuesday looking the most bearish. Transiting Sun and Mercury will move into Aries early in the week and will fall under the aspect of unpredictable Ketu. I consider this a negative influence owing to Ketu's conjunction with Saturn. The transiting Moon will come to the Saturn-Ketu conjunction Tuesday, so that might be the more negative day. As an additional burden, by their ingress into Aries, Sun and Mercury are moving into the 12th house of the the S&P chart. At this point, Friday appears to be the best day, as tr. Venus applies to the natal S&P Moon, although it will still be a couple degrees short. If Monday does in fact produce a lower close, then we could be looking at a significant decline for Tuesday, on the order of 2% or more. I think we will see 1300/12,000 at some point this week, with a slight possibility of.intraday re-testing of the 11,700/1270 support levels. On balance, I think that next week would be a better candidate for the re-testing of those support levels, however.
Bombay is closed Monday, but trading on Tuesday should be mostly negative. I had thought the decline would being late last week as the transiting Mars came to the natal 1875 Mercury, but traders had other ideas as the Sensex closed at 15,807. Tr. Mars now applies to the natal Sun so the negative energy is now, if anything, more concentrated. Some relief rally is possible for Thursday, however, as optimism, no matter how baseless, may return with the approach of transiting Venus to the natal 1875 Rahu. With the shortened three-day trading week, I think we will finish lower, perhaps moving below 15,000 at least for one day's close.
Tokyo is coming off a decent week and will open at 13,323. Transiting Sun and Mercury will conjoin the natal Rahu in the TSE chart, making for a lot of volatility. We can expect a down day Monday following on the the heels of US markets. Transiting Moon will come under negative pressure from the aspect of the natal TSE Mars. However, transiting Venus will move toward the TSE unequal 10th house cusp (MC) later in the week. This is one reason why I can see the Nikkei closing over 13k for the week and indeed moving higher from current levels.
I was overly bearish on the Euro last week, but I'm fairly certain it will sell off this week as tr. Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Saturn. I see that it has sold off almost a cent already in early trading so that forecast is bearing fruit. We may see $1.55 or lower in the early part of the week, but look for some recovery by Friday, perhaps back to $1.56 or 1.57. Overall, though we should be lower from its present level of $1.582.
Oil is similarly going to suffer a big pullback early on in the week as tr Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Mars in the futures chart. Given its recent volatility, a big move of at least 5% to the downside is very likely over Monday and Tuesday. We may see the Oil price go below $105, perhaps decisively so. There will some rally later on, but I think we'll finish Friday below current levels of $110.
Gold will also fall this week as tr Mars conjoins the natal Saturn in the futures chart. $900 is very possible at some point this week and I think we'll close Friday lower than where we started.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/13/2008 08:02:00 PM
April 6, 2008 Weekly Forecast
New York opens trading Monday at 12,606/1370 after last week's gains as we had forecast. I think we're heading lower this week. The New Moon chart is a mixed bag with lagnesh Mars causing problems in the 8th house. On the plus side, Jupiter is reinforcing notions of wealth in the 2nd house. However, there are couple of potential bearish indicators forming this week as Mercury squares Mars, and Sun squares Jupiter, both perfecting on Thursday. On that day, tr Moon is aspected by Rahu, so that's another signal that we may be in for a larger scale decline that day on the order of 1-2%. To complicate matters, tr Venus will be sitting on the 11th cusp of gains in the S&P500 chart on Thursday so that will exercise an offsetting influence to some extent. Alternatively, the Venusian up day may be pushed forward to Friday. Monday and Tuesday may see gains as the Aries Moon falls under the aspect of Jupiter. At this point, I think Wednesday and Thursday will be the most negative. By Friday, I think we'll be under 12,400/1350 with possible weekly intraday lows of 12,200/1330. If Monday and Tuesday are pretty solid up days, then we'll finish Friday closer to the higher 1350 level. If not, then those intraday lows of 1330 may well be closing prices. In any event, I think the market is headed into a more bearish period here over the next couple of weeks, so even if this forecast is a little off this week, the negativity will catch up next week. I am not ruling out a retesting of the winter lows of 11,750/1270. More details later.
Starting Monday at 15,343, Bombay looks like it will have a negative week. Transiting Mars will conjoin the natal Mercury by degree in the BSE 1875 chart which will set off the natal nodes as well. This is most likely to manifest on Wednesday when it is exact. And on that day the tr Moon will square the tr Saturn. This looks like a substantial move to the down side, perhaps on the order of 3-5%. On Thursday, tr Mercury will conjoin the natal Rahu in the 1875 chart so that also does not bode well for the market. Some up days are still possible on Monday, Tuesday and Friday, however, but they don't look that good. To top it off Sunday's New Moon showed Saturn and Ketu as the lowest point in the sky -- a very bearish signal. I'm confident we will be easily below 15k on the Sensex by Friday and down to 14,500 intraday at some point. I would also say that there's a 50-50 chance we will end 500 pts lower on both of those target levels.
Tokyo opens Monday at 13,293, right in line with last week's forecast for a close over 13k on the Nikkei. This is looking like a losing week as Mars falls in the 12th house of the New Moon chart. Monday looks bearish as tr Moon hits the natal Mars in the TSE chart. Wednesday is likely the worst day of the week as tr Mercury opposes Neptune in the TSE chart whilst tr Venus sits on the cusp of the 8th house in the Topix chart. I think we should finish below 13,000 this week, with some intraday lows below 12,500 very possible.
The Euro gamely held onto its relatively lofty levels above 1.57 last week but the picture darkens this week as tr Sun will be caught in the crosshairs of the aspect of natal Mars and then will go on and apply to conjoin the natal Saturn. I think we could see a big fall this week, probably below $1.55 by Friday and perhaps down as low as $1.53 intraday depending on how bad Monday is. If we see the Euro drop by a full cent Monday, then a more bearish outlook is likely for the week. Next week looks even worse for the Euro. The US dollar is coming back with a vengeance.
Oil starts the week above $106 after last week's gains. I think we should finish the week at or above these levels, between $105-108. The early part of the week looks best as the Moon conjoins the natal Venus on Monday and tr Mercury comes under Jupiter's benefic influence. There is the possibility that some of the bullish patterns on Tuesday and Wednesday may negated by tr Mars' square to Mercury. At this point, it seems that gains will be limited to less than 1% on each these days but I admit there is a chance we could move lower, albeit not by much.
Gold opens at $913 after last week's sharp sell off. I don't see Gold holding on here. It is likely to move lower this week, closing below $900. Monday opens bearishly as tr Mercury falls under natal Rahu's aspect while squaring the natal Sun. There will be some upward movement but it probably won't be strong. Next week looks like another sharp move downward, so we may get an early start on Thursday and Friday as tr Mars conjoins the natal Saturn. This is the same aspect that marked the sell off after the May 2006 top. I think we're going to see Gold fall below at least $850 over the next two weeks.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/06/2008 01:13:00 PM
May 25 Weekly Forecast
New York finished the week down over 3%, closing at 12,479 on the Dow and 1375 on the SPX. While I had foreseen this decline, I had thought we would be spared the brunt of it until Thursday or Friday and into next week. As it happened, the decline came early on Wednesday and pushed the markets decisively below key resistance levels. I think we have some more downside left on this move down this week. The Mercury retrograde station on Monday looms large in this respect, even if it falls on a day when the markets are closed. Tuesday and Wednesday therefore look most vulnerable to sell offs. On Tuesday, Venus squares Saturn while Moon opposes Saturn, a very difficult pattern and points to a significant loss, most likely greater than 1%, perhaps as high as 2%. This should set the tone for the rest of the week and we should finish lower across the board. There's a chance that the March lows will be re-tested here, but it's more likely we'll see between 1320-1330 as an intraday bottom and finishing somewhat above that. The following week looks strong, so look the market to attempt yet another rally.
The Euro is coming off a strong week and starts Monday at 1.5755. While I had spotted the supporting influence of Sun and Venus in the 9th house, my forecast for a down week was off the mark as the stationing Mercury did not suffer any ill effects from the natal Ketu. The current uptrend is likely to continue next week as the Venus in Taurus still sits very close to the 9th house cusp. Thursday may be the best day, as Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter.
As predicted, Oil continued its march ever upward and we did easily pass $130. After the high of $135 on Wednesday, the market showed signs of weakening as the rally on Friday only got it back to $132. Given the central role of the stationing Mercury to this price spike, I am eager to see what the market looks like on the other side of Monday's station. There's a good chance that the reversal in Mercury's direction may be reflected in a similar reversal of the upward trend. I think a large move back under $130 is a plausible scenario for the week, with a possible upturn by Friday. Overall, I think the week looks negative but we'll probably see another large rally by the second week of June.
Despite my negative outlook, Gold is coming off a bullish week and opens trading at $925. I think it's likely to repeat this performance and may end up bumping up against resistance levels in the $940-950 range. Tr Sun and Venus are moving closer to the trinal aspect of natal Jupiter in the ETF chart which is a positive signal. The following week or two will see Gold fall back towards $900, however, as the consolidation process continues.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/25/2008 08:39:00 AM
May 18 Weekly Forecast
New York is coming off an up week and opens Monday at 12,986/1425. My forecast ran aground on the expectation of an early week sell off which did not materialize. In hindsight, much of the rise can be attributed to the transiting Sun-Jupiter trine which overrode any afflictions in the SPX chart. The late-week rise on the Sun-Moon-Jupiter grand trine was in keeping with the forecast, however, but by then the market was already on firmer territory.
While the Venus-Jupiter trine has perfected Sunday, I think there may be enough optimism left in the separating aspect to move prices up into Monday. The bullish move will likely be further supported by the Moon's aspect to Venus at the start of trading. Venus squares Neptune on Tuesday, however, which might be a time for an unsustainable rally which ultimately fails by the close. Transiting Venus also conjoins the natal Mercury in the 1792 chart, so that is probably another boost for the market mid-week. More negatively, the Sun will be in square aspect to Saturn on Thursday and Friday, so both those days may see the market under water, although Friday is worse. On balance the up momentum is significant this week, so we may close up overall, although not by much given Friday's probable decline. Things look more troubled next week as Mercury turns retrograde on Monday. This is can be a factor that reverses the prevailing trend, and since we've been moving up recently, it's reasonable to see this is as a bearish signal. Another important dimension to this retrograde station is that it occurs in close aspect to Rahu. This intensifies the feelings of unease and uncertainty connected with trading and may correspond to significant computer glitches as well. Moreover, Monday the 26th will feature Venus in square aspect to Saturn and Sun in tight aspect with the natal Rahu of the 1792 chart. Overall, not a good mix.
The Euro opens at 1.5576, up almost a full cent on the week. Although it was down below 1.54 intraday early in the week, I underestimated the bullish effects of the partile Tr. Uranus conjunction to natal Jupiter. As transiting lagna lord Mercury slows down, it comes under the aspect of the natal Ketu, which is a negative influence. This may be held off for part of the week by the bullish effect of transiting Sun and Venus in the 9th house of the natal chart. But here only Monday and Friday look positive. My best guess is that the Euro will finish down for the week, possibly below 1.55.
Oil continues to defy my bearish expectations as it finished above $126 once again. While it did touch below $122 earlier in the week, it bounced right back, fueled by ongoing speculation and the cheerleading provided by Goldman Sachs. It seems that the transiting Mercury to the ascendant of the futures chart was not price neutral after all. It's still pretty close to the ascendant this week, so I'm reluctant to predict any major declines and we may see $130. The presence of the Rahu aspect to Mercury says nothing, if not "speculation". I don't fully understand why the tr Mars to the futures Moon-Saturn has not provided enough downside pressure on prices. Perhaps it's a case of just being offset by Mercury hovering close to the ascendant. We may have to wait for Mercury to turn retrograde on the 26th and thereby turn away from the ascendant and out of Rahu's influence for prices to fall significantly. This is likely going to be very volatile for a few weeks as long as Mercury is within range of Rahu.
Gold opens at $899, up modestly from the previous week. I had thought trading would be choppy with early week weakness and that wasn't entirely off the mark, although the size of the swings surprised me. Monday looks good as Tr. Moon opposes Venus in soft aspect to the natal Venus in the futures chart. Midweek looks more problematic as Mercury opposes the Pluto in the ETF chart. Overall, I think Gold finishes lower on the week, but there are enough upward signals here to warrant some daily up moves, too.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/18/2008 01:28:00 PM
May 11 Weekly Forecast
New York is coming off a moderately negative week and opens at 12,745/1388. While I had thought the market would finish somewhat higher by Friday, these levels are in line with my worse-case intraday expectation of 1390 on the SPX. With Jupiter now retrograde, I think we are going to see some fundamental shifts in sentiment in the coming weeks as the glass will begin to appear half-empty to more market players. I don't think the market will go straight down from here though, since a rally of some size is likely heading into mid-June.
Last week, I predicted that Monday the 12th may see a substantial decline. I still think there is a big downside risk early this week owing to the simultaneous aspecting of transiting Mars and Saturn to the SPX natal Mercury. Also tr Mercury opposes the natal SPX Saturn as well, making the density of these contacts very high, and largely negative. Discerning outcomes is made more complicated since tr Jupiter trines tr Sun (a bullish influence) and these planets are exactly aligned with the Mars-Ketu conjunction in the SPX chart. While I think this natal contact essentially neutralizes the favourable influence of the trine, I acknowledge there is a slight possibility that the market could go the other way and rally. Regardless, I think Monday-Tuesday will see large price swings, most probably to the downside. The latter part of the week starting on Wednesday looks like a nice rally as a grand trine forms between tr Jupiter, Moon, and Sun. Overall, I think the market will finish the week lower with possible intraday lows of 12,500/1350.
Although I was steadfast in my belief that the recent run-up on Indian markets is nothing but a bear market rally, I thought the rise would last through last week. It didn't, and the BSE finished lower and opens at 16,737. In retrospect, I underestimated the negative impact of the late week tr Mars aspect to the natal Moon in the Nifty Futures chart. The Sun-nodal t-square perfects this week just as the tr Sun passes over the natal Saturn in the Nifty chart creating a situation of extreme uncertainty and confusion leading to fear. This aspect makes its closest pass on Tuesday and Wednesday, on the heels of the likely Monday sell off in NY. A close under 16k is possible here and negative week seems the most likely outcome although with a decent snapback rally late in the week, the Sensex may not be down by that much. My sense is that this isn't the end of the bear market rally and we may see more sizable rallies up until about June 10.
I was similarly sanguine about the TSE last week which finished lower at 13,655, although I was correct in predicting the end of the week weakness. This global bearish pattern for the week is also seen in the Tokyo chart. Tr Mars opposes natal Jupiter, although interestingly it doesn't perfect until later in the week. The Sun-nodal t-square also affects this chart, as the Sun is just four degrees from its natal position on Monday. Note also that the transiting Moon joins Ketu on Monday for added punch. This chart looks less afflicted than either NY or Mumbai, so it's possible the decline may be less here.
The Euro closed fractionally higher last week and opens at 1.5492. While I had forecast a down week, my projection for intraday lows of 1.53 was spot on as the Euro hit that level twice on Wednesday and Thursday. However, it bounced back sharply both times and even managed a decent gain on Friday. The Sun-nodal t-square will hit the Euro head-on as the nodes sit in inverse conjunction to their natal position -- tr Rahu conjunct natal Ketu. I think the Euro will revisit 1.53 again this week and will probably go below it. With Jupiter no long applying to the natal Venus, I think the Euro is headed down over the next few weeks. We should be well under 1.50 by June.
Last week's bearish forecast missed the mark as Oil is coming off another record-setting week with an apparent speculative blow off top and closed Friday above $125. Well, the party may well be over -- at least for this week. Tr Mars squares the Moon-Saturn in the futures chart this week with the perfection of the aspect due mid-week. With tr Saturn also aspecting that natal conjunction, there is a real risk for a large drop, perhaps back under $115. At this point, I am interpreting tr Mercury coming to the ascendant of the futures chart as a sign of increased trading, rather than a bullish price indicator.
I was similarly overly negative on Gold last week as it closed at $885, up $30. While I had thought some good rallies were possible, I didn't think they would hold as much as they did. I'm generally bearish short term, as I think Gold is in the process of forming a bottom here so I am expecting more testing of $850 and below in the coming weeks. This week Gold seems poised to decline as tr Mercury opposes the natal futures Mars, while tr Mars squares the natal Uranus. This apparently bearish pattern is reinforced by some hard aspects in the GLD ETF chart. It won't be all downhill from here, although I think the bearishness is likely strongest on Monday and Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see $850 at some point this week, although I'm not wholly committed to the gloom for this week. The drift should be down, but prices could be choppy here.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/11/2008 01:11:00 PM
May 4 2008 Weekly Forecast
Despite last week's prediction to the contrary, New York is coming off another good week as it finished at or above some key resistance levels. The Dow opens at 13,058, the SPX at 1413. While closes above these levels should be seen as bullish indicators, it's important to note that low volume and iffy market breadth have made them less than convincing signs that we've definitely broken out of the current trading range. We're sitting in between some big planetary direction changes now as Saturn turned direction on Friday, while Jupiter turns retrograde on Friday. So a holding pattern may be the most likely outcome with no big moves either way. I think the coming week will likely see the market stay at or near these levels, with a bias to the upside. I would say there's a 30% chance we'll see 13,400/1450 at some point this week, and only a 20% chance to see any intraday below 12,800/1390. Monday looks like heavy trading on the upside as tr Mercury conjoins the SPX ascendant.
I am still maintaining a bearish stance here, however, so I would be cautious about going long in this market especially at these relatively lofty levels. The next key date I'm looking is May 12th, when tr Mercury opposes the SPX Saturn and tr Mars and tr Saturn both line up a 7 degrees of their respective signs -- both aspecting the SPX Mercury. I don't know how deep the next leg down will be, but it should take us at least half way back to the key support levels. The markets could start to lose ground towards the end of this week in anticipation for sharper declines in the week of the 12th.
Bombay is coming off a good week and the Sensex opens Monday at 17,600. I can't see any reason for the uptrend to change so we will likely see 18k at some point. In the Nifty Futures chart, for example, tr second lord Sun is dispositor of bhukti lord Saturn is conjunct the 10th house cusp early in the week. Tr 11th lord Venus is applying to this favourable position, while Mercury transits through the 11th house of gains. While I still believe that this is nothing but a bear market rally, I am loath to bet against it this week.
Tokyo broke through 14k level last week and opens Monday at 14,049. Tr Mars crosses the TSE ascendant early in the week and yet this is unlikely to cause much turbulence because tr Moon, Sun, and Venus will closely conjoin the TSE Mars in Aries. On Monday, tr Mercury will be just past the TSE Venus in the 11th house, so that also tends to be a bullish influence. 14,500 is possible here, but look for gains to fade by Friday although we should finish higher on the week.
As predicted, the Euro fell sharply last week and opens Monday at 1.5424. I think the downtrend will continue although not as strongly or as deliberately. Monday and Tuesday look like days of consolidation for the Euro so we may see it bounce back up to 1.55 intraday. Towards the end of the week, however, the US dollar will rally once again so 1.53 or below is very much on the table.
As predicted, Oil fell back from last week's highs and opens at $116. I correctly foresaw the dip down to $110, although Friday's recovery was somewhat surprising. I'm still very bearish on Oil both short and medium term and I think we are heading for $90 or less at some point in June. This week may only see relatively small declines to $112-114 and at least one big up day is still likely. Tr Mars has yet to get close enough to the natal Moon-Saturn to make the break below $110.
As predicted, Gold came down sharply and reached our target of $850 on Thursday. It starts the week at $857. I'm still bearish for Gold in the short term but this week may see it stay near current levels. Monday will probably see it fall further, perhaps below $850. We might make $830 a possible downside target somewhere along the line, although this seems like a worse case scenario. At some point, I think a $20 gain is possible but any rally likely won't stick. We should end the week lower overall.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 5/04/2008 04:23:00 PM
April 27 2008 Weekly Forecast
Stocks in New York finished modestly higher last week, contrary to expectations. It now appears that the stationing Saturn will need the help of the inner planets to form a square in order to push prices down which happens at the end of week. Another potential bearish influence may come from Mars, which on Monday enters sidereal Cancer, its sign of debilitation. The major indexes are approaching the upper end of their recent trading ranges as the Dow starts this week at 12,891 and the S&P at 1397.
I think there is a chance that stocks can hold on to these recent gains in the early part of the week but Thursday and Friday look negative and are likely to take the averages down. Overall, I think the market will finish lower for the week. The key factor in all of this is the effect of Mars entering Cancer. After spending the past six months in Gemini, the ingress of Mars into Cancer will introduce a new variable into the mix. It's possible that this new planetary equation may push markets down on Monday since Mars is the dispositor for all the inner planets -- Sun, Mercury and Venus. If markets drop Monday, then this would substantially increase the prospects for a negative week. As an added bearish factor, tr Mars will squares the natal Jupiter in the NYSE 1792 chart.
Bombay is coming off another bullish week closing at an impressive 17,125, as it capitalized on the tr Venus conjunction to the natal Moon in the IFN ETF chart. I think the Mars aspect to the natal Uranus will cause a sudden sell-off Monday or Tuesday. The further motion of Mars into Cancer is likely to create negative momentum to the market through the week so we're likely to see markets fall from current levels by Friday.
Tokyo was also up significantly last week and opens Monday at 13,863. The TSE exceeded last week's forecast from the surprising strength of the Venus-Rahu conjunction. While this is often a negative influence, the exact aspect from tr Jupiter to its dispositor Mars gave a big boost to the tr Venus. Since the TSE chart has 3 Cancer rising, the approach of Mars this week points to an increase in volume and volatility. I am also forecasting a decline here. Friday looks like the worst day.
As forecast, the Euro did hit 1.60 last week although it failed to hang on to gains. It starts the week above 1.56. This pullback was expected although we had thought it arrived a few days ahead of schedule. I expect this weakness to continue this week, as the Euro may fall to 1.53 or below at some point.
Oil closed higher least week as forecast, reaching as high as $119 and closing above $118. I am expecting oil to fall this week, perhaps sharply, as Venus conjoins the natal Mars in the futures chart and Mars begins to channel its debilitated energy to the Moon-Saturn conjunction in Libra. While there is a question of when the bearishness of Mars will manifest since the aspect will not perfect for another two weeks (May 13), I think the worsening condition of transiting Venus will be enough to push prices down. Tr Venus falls under the aspect of the natal Ketu early in the week, and by the end of the week it opposes the natal Saturn. That's more than enough constraint to correct prices back under $115, perhaps even lower to $110.
Like the Euro, the sell off in Gold started a little earlier than expected, as it closed at $889, falling almost 3% for the week. I was correct in noting the possible bearish effect of the tr Mars opposition to the natal Venus on Friday, as prices fell sharply. I expect the sell off to continue as tr Venus falls under the natal Saturn in the GLD ETF chart, while tr Mars aspects the natal Venus. This has the potential for a sharp decline, especially Monday and Friday. We may see a close below $850 this week. This would put Gold in striking distance of its 200 day moving average.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/27/2008 01:36:00 PM
April 20 2008 Weekly Forecast
After last week's bull run eviscerated my gloomy forecast, New York starts the week at 12,849/1390. The dominant aspect this week is the Mars-Jupiter opposition which perfects on Thursday. For extra complexity, Venus (28 Pisces) will form a western t-square on that date as it moves through the last degrees of exaltation in Pisces. And given the Uranus placement in the same degree of Aquarius, we have a fairly potent line-up of planets. I think this pattern is largely bearish, although Monday may be an up day as Venus is still within range of the S&P Moon. We may be able to approach the 13,000/1400 in the early going this week but head lower as the week wears on. Besides the troublesome Mars-Jupiter aspect, tr Mars falls under the aspect of the S&P Rahu, while tr Sun sits on the equal 12th house cusp on Thursday. These are really quite negative indications and suggest that down days greater than 1% in midweek are likely. Overall, we should finish lower this week, with a reasonable prospect that we'll end up significantly lower, back to 12,200/1325.
Bombay opens at 16,481 after an unexpected big rise last week. I think the BSE is going to be lower this week, breaking below 16k. Besides the Mars-Venus-Jupiter t-square, tr Mars squares the Sun in the BSE-100 chart. Transiting bhukti lord Mercury is very close to the equal 6th house cusp earlier in the week, so this may be a drag on prices before any substantial declines occur.
After a solid week as per our forecast, Tokyo opens at 13,476. Even with this bearish Mars-Jupiter pattern in the sky, I'm less negative about the TSE. While I think some down days are in store, especially later in the week, this may well turn out to be one of the stronger global equity markets. If we finish down for the week, it won't be by much. Next week, by contrast, looks much worse.
After flirting with $1.60 last week, the Euro opens at $1.58. I think we will see it break through $1.60 this week -- finally. Tr Mars comes under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter while tr Venus still aspects the Virgo lagna. Wednesday or Thursday look like the best days. Overall, we should finish up significantly for the week.
Oil is really the pivotal economic story these days as it opens at another all-time high of $116. Transiting bhukti lord Venus remains in exaltation in Pisces all week, so it looks generally bullish. However, we will see a chance for a big (>1%) pullback as tr Sun opposes the natal Moon-Saturn conjunction Tuesday and Wednesday. I think this transit will only generate one major down day so we'll probably finish Friday above current levels, but $120 may only be a 50-50 proposition.
At $915, Gold comes off a decent week, even if Friday's sell off was sharp. Monday looks negative as the residual bearish of transiting dasha lord Venus under the influence of natal Saturn. Also, tr Sun opposes the natal Uranus in the futures chart. I think the upward momentum will resume after that, although Friday is a question as the tr Mars opposes the natal Venus. On balance, I think we'll finish higher for the week. However, time is running out for Gold as next week the Jupiter station will really pull the rug out from this market in May and we could see prices break down to $850 or below. While I had previously thought that we had a window of opportunity to hit $1000 briefly before the big sell off, I no longer think this is possible. Especially if Monday is negative, I don't think there will be enough juice in the tank to get us there. We will likely have to wait until autumn for a chance to revisit the all-time highs.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/20/2008 02:00:00 PM
April 13 2008 Weekly Forecast
As predicted, the NYSE finished down last week amid new fears that corporate earnings may be vulnerable to fallout from the sub-prime crisis. The Dow opens at 12,325 and the S&P at 1332. I think we will see the markets move lower again this week, with Monday and Tuesday looking the most bearish. Transiting Sun and Mercury will move into Aries early in the week and will fall under the aspect of unpredictable Ketu. I consider this a negative influence owing to Ketu's conjunction with Saturn. The transiting Moon will come to the Saturn-Ketu conjunction Tuesday, so that might be the more negative day. As an additional burden, by their ingress into Aries, Sun and Mercury are moving into the 12th house of the the S&P chart. At this point, Friday appears to be the best day, as tr. Venus applies to the natal S&P Moon, although it will still be a couple degrees short. If Monday does in fact produce a lower close, then we could be looking at a significant decline for Tuesday, on the order of 2% or more. I think we will see 1300/12,000 at some point this week, with a slight possibility of.intraday re-testing of the 11,700/1270 support levels. On balance, I think that next week would be a better candidate for the re-testing of those support levels, however.
Bombay is closed Monday, but trading on Tuesday should be mostly negative. I had thought the decline would being late last week as the transiting Mars came to the natal 1875 Mercury, but traders had other ideas as the Sensex closed at 15,807. Tr. Mars now applies to the natal Sun so the negative energy is now, if anything, more concentrated. Some relief rally is possible for Thursday, however, as optimism, no matter how baseless, may return with the approach of transiting Venus to the natal 1875 Rahu. With the shortened three-day trading week, I think we will finish lower, perhaps moving below 15,000 at least for one day's close.
Tokyo is coming off a decent week and will open at 13,323. Transiting Sun and Mercury will conjoin the natal Rahu in the TSE chart, making for a lot of volatility. We can expect a down day Monday following on the the heels of US markets. Transiting Moon will come under negative pressure from the aspect of the natal TSE Mars. However, transiting Venus will move toward the TSE unequal 10th house cusp (MC) later in the week. This is one reason why I can see the Nikkei closing over 13k for the week and indeed moving higher from current levels.
I was overly bearish on the Euro last week, but I'm fairly certain it will sell off this week as tr. Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Saturn. I see that it has sold off almost a cent already in early trading so that forecast is bearing fruit. We may see $1.55 or lower in the early part of the week, but look for some recovery by Friday, perhaps back to $1.56 or 1.57. Overall, though we should be lower from its present level of $1.582.
Oil is similarly going to suffer a big pullback early on in the week as tr Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Mars in the futures chart. Given its recent volatility, a big move of at least 5% to the downside is very likely over Monday and Tuesday. We may see the Oil price go below $105, perhaps decisively so. There will some rally later on, but I think we'll finish Friday below current levels of $110.
Gold will also fall this week as tr Mars conjoins the natal Saturn in the futures chart. $900 is very possible at some point this week and I think we'll close Friday lower than where we started.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/13/2008 08:02:00 PM
April 6, 2008 Weekly Forecast
New York opens trading Monday at 12,606/1370 after last week's gains as we had forecast. I think we're heading lower this week. The New Moon chart is a mixed bag with lagnesh Mars causing problems in the 8th house. On the plus side, Jupiter is reinforcing notions of wealth in the 2nd house. However, there are couple of potential bearish indicators forming this week as Mercury squares Mars, and Sun squares Jupiter, both perfecting on Thursday. On that day, tr Moon is aspected by Rahu, so that's another signal that we may be in for a larger scale decline that day on the order of 1-2%. To complicate matters, tr Venus will be sitting on the 11th cusp of gains in the S&P500 chart on Thursday so that will exercise an offsetting influence to some extent. Alternatively, the Venusian up day may be pushed forward to Friday. Monday and Tuesday may see gains as the Aries Moon falls under the aspect of Jupiter. At this point, I think Wednesday and Thursday will be the most negative. By Friday, I think we'll be under 12,400/1350 with possible weekly intraday lows of 12,200/1330. If Monday and Tuesday are pretty solid up days, then we'll finish Friday closer to the higher 1350 level. If not, then those intraday lows of 1330 may well be closing prices. In any event, I think the market is headed into a more bearish period here over the next couple of weeks, so even if this forecast is a little off this week, the negativity will catch up next week. I am not ruling out a retesting of the winter lows of 11,750/1270. More details later.
Starting Monday at 15,343, Bombay looks like it will have a negative week. Transiting Mars will conjoin the natal Mercury by degree in the BSE 1875 chart which will set off the natal nodes as well. This is most likely to manifest on Wednesday when it is exact. And on that day the tr Moon will square the tr Saturn. This looks like a substantial move to the down side, perhaps on the order of 3-5%. On Thursday, tr Mercury will conjoin the natal Rahu in the 1875 chart so that also does not bode well for the market. Some up days are still possible on Monday, Tuesday and Friday, however, but they don't look that good. To top it off Sunday's New Moon showed Saturn and Ketu as the lowest point in the sky -- a very bearish signal. I'm confident we will be easily below 15k on the Sensex by Friday and down to 14,500 intraday at some point. I would also say that there's a 50-50 chance we will end 500 pts lower on both of those target levels.
Tokyo opens Monday at 13,293, right in line with last week's forecast for a close over 13k on the Nikkei. This is looking like a losing week as Mars falls in the 12th house of the New Moon chart. Monday looks bearish as tr Moon hits the natal Mars in the TSE chart. Wednesday is likely the worst day of the week as tr Mercury opposes Neptune in the TSE chart whilst tr Venus sits on the cusp of the 8th house in the Topix chart. I think we should finish below 13,000 this week, with some intraday lows below 12,500 very possible.
The Euro gamely held onto its relatively lofty levels above 1.57 last week but the picture darkens this week as tr Sun will be caught in the crosshairs of the aspect of natal Mars and then will go on and apply to conjoin the natal Saturn. I think we could see a big fall this week, probably below $1.55 by Friday and perhaps down as low as $1.53 intraday depending on how bad Monday is. If we see the Euro drop by a full cent Monday, then a more bearish outlook is likely for the week. Next week looks even worse for the Euro. The US dollar is coming back with a vengeance.
Oil starts the week above $106 after last week's gains. I think we should finish the week at or above these levels, between $105-108. The early part of the week looks best as the Moon conjoins the natal Venus on Monday and tr Mercury comes under Jupiter's benefic influence. There is the possibility that some of the bullish patterns on Tuesday and Wednesday may negated by tr Mars' square to Mercury. At this point, it seems that gains will be limited to less than 1% on each these days but I admit there is a chance we could move lower, albeit not by much.
Gold opens at $913 after last week's sharp sell off. I don't see Gold holding on here. It is likely to move lower this week, closing below $900. Monday opens bearishly as tr Mercury falls under natal Rahu's aspect while squaring the natal Sun. There will be some upward movement but it probably won't be strong. Next week looks like another sharp move downward, so we may get an early start on Thursday and Friday as tr Mars conjoins the natal Saturn. This is the same aspect that marked the sell off after the May 2006 top. I think we're going to see Gold fall below at least $850 over the next two weeks.
Posted by Christopher Kevill at 4/06/2008 01:13:00 PM
March 30, 2008 Weekly Forecast
After last week's slow erosion of optimism in New York, Monday promises for more jitters. At least a 1% drop is possible as the Sun-Mars square dominates. Another potentially negative influence is tr Venus aspected by natal Rahu in the S&P chart. However, the 3rd quarter Moon of March 29, shows a mixed picture as Mars opposes the Moon very closely (bearish) while Mercury and Venus are setting on the 7th cusp over New York. Another probable positive influence is tr Mercury and Venus will be under the influence of the natal Jupiter. So I think this points to a volatile week with days of both significant gains and losses. On balance, though, I think we will have an up week. And if Monday turns out to be positive or merely neutral, then we could be in for a significant rise this week that pushes the indexes up 2-4%, towards resistance levels of 12,700/1370. A more likely scenario is for more modest gains.
After last week's forecast gain left the Nikkei at 12,800, I think there will be additional gains. A Friday close over 13k is very likely, and we could be a fair bit higher than that. Tr Mercury and Venus will be passing over the 9th equal house cusp this week.
While I may have called Friday's up day, I was caught off guard by the BSE's strength last week. More gains are likely this week although we may only finish a little over Monday's open. Tr Mercury falls under aspect of Mars in the BSE 1875 chart on Monday so that may be a down day. On Wednesday, tr Venus falls under the same aspect hence another negative outcome is likely then.
The Euro looks like it will continue on the come back road this week. Monday looks good so we might see $1.59. Tuesday may fall as Moon conjoins the natal Ketu. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday look fairly solid, with the best gains likely on Friday. We may touch $1.60 this week, probably on Friday. But I think we'll finish higher than where we started the week.
Oil looks strong this week as the Pisces planets will be in the 11th house of the Oil futures chart. I'm looking for a big up day Monday as the Sun comes under the benefic aspect of natal Jupiter. Wednesday and Friday look particularly positive also. I think we will touch $108, and $110 is possible, depending on the extent of Tuesday's action.
Gold will probably finish the slightly week higher, but I'm not that bullish here at all. Monday and Friday look best, and we will probably see it rise towards $950 again on either of those days. Tuesday looks negative, as does Thursday, with Wednesday being more neutral. We may end up somewhere between $930 and $950. My thinking here is based on the entry of tr Mercury and Venus into the Gold ETF 4th house which should be mostly positive. However, a possible offsetting influence will be tr Mars' aspect to the natal Jupiter in this chart.
March 23 2008 Weekly Forecast
The NYSE is coming off a life-saving rally last week. This week will be a crucial opportunity for a respite with recent nervousness. Certainly, there are some nice planetary configurations to factor in, particularly the equal degree alignment between Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and Uranus. While this is a fairly rare occurrence, I don't think it will result in a big gain. That's partially due to a fairly bearish-looking March 21 Full Moon that featured an ascendant hemmed in between Mars and Saturn/Ketu. We will have days with large rises, probably on Tuesday and to a lesser extent on Thursday. But the overall market will remain mixed and I believe we will close Friday within 1% of our present levels, probably on the downside. I will make some revised daily forecasts through the week.
Monday looks modestly negative (<1%) as the Moon is in Rahu/Saturn at the open. If the market drops more than 1%, the week will be worse than I thought. Tuesday appears to be the best day (+2%) as the Moon is in Jupiter's nakshatra while completing that upbeat configuration of aforementioned planets. Look for the rally to fade in the afternoon after perfection of the lunar aspect. Wednesday looks like the worst day (-2%) as the Moon is in Saturn/Mercury and squares the Saturn-Nodes. Thursday's Moon is in Mercury's star while the planet of trading enjoys a strong placement. I'm expecting at least a rise of 1%. Friday looks modestly negative as the Moon transits Mercury-Saturn. There is a chance for a larger loss here of perhaps 2% but more likely it will be held to 1% on late buying.
Tokyo will likely track higher this week as the Full Moon showed a clustering of benefics around the ascendant. The Nikkei starts the week at 12,482 and we may see 13k at some point. Monday looks good. Wednesday appears to be the best day, with gains over 2% possible. Friday may be negative as the Moon enters the 6th house of the TSE chart.
Bombay starts the week at 14,994 and will likely end the week in negative territory reinforcing the bearishness. The Full Moon occurred opposite the natal Saturn in the BSE chart and the transiting Sun is between the natal Saturn-Ketu conjunction. Things may get grim here, and we may go below 14,000k at some point. Thursday looks worst.
After the more modest rate cut and revival of confidence in the US dollar, a lot of investors cut their inflation hedge instruments and got out of gold, oil and the Euro. As a result, the Euro fell back under $1.55. I think it's due to rise again this week back near its recent highs, perhaps to $1.57 or $1.58. We are likely looking at an up week here, with real strength towards the end of the week. $1.60 is very possible. The following week also looks bullish for the Euro, even if other commodities continue to weaken.
Opening the week at $101, Oil looks like it will continue to weaken this week. We may go lower than $98. Thursday looks like a gain as the Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. Friday looks bearish.
Gold looks like it may be in better shape this week to rise above its $920 open, although it's not likely to resume its frenetic bull run for a little while, perhaps in May or June. Monday looks like a gain, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday also has the potential to move up, although things may get shaky after that. Overall, I think we'll end the week lower, but the declines will be more orderly suggesting a consolidation near $850-900 may be taking place. We may test below $900 at some point.
March 16 2008 Weekly Forecast
NY starts the week at 11,951/1288. This looks like another negative week upcoming as a number of hard aspects are perfecting. In the background there is the promise of some upside as a harmonically favourable relationship between Jupiter and Uranus is forming. I still think this has another week to go before we see any big upwards movement from it, however. Monday should decline by at least 1% as Mercury opposes Saturn. Friday also looks quite bearish. I think we'll see new intraday and closing lows (below 11,500/1270) at some point in NY in the week, possibly as low as 11,250/1250.
Tokyo and Bombay will follow suit . The Nikkei starts at 12,241 and is already down below 12k in early Monday trading. I think we'll see a range from 12,500 to 11,400 during the week and it will close below 12k by Friday. The Sensex opens at 15,760 Monday and will likely finish below that level by Friday, possibly near 15k. A range between 16,200 and 14,500 is possible.
The Euro continues on its bull run this week and into the Spring. Monday and Tuesday look fantastic and we should see at least a 2 cent gain in those days, perhaps getting us as high as 1.60 by week's end. We are in good position to ride the Euro significantly higher by May.
Oil is due for a pullback this week as tr Sun squares Ketu and Neptune while Mercury and Venus square Uranus-Jupiter. While some new intraday highs above $111 are possible, I think the safer bet is the downside, perhaps as low as $105. And given the recent speculative volatility of this market, I would not be surprised to see crude to fall below that.
Gold is shining brightly this week and will add to last week's historic gains. While we may see lows in the $990 range, it will close above $1010 by Friday, probably at least $1020-1030.
March 9 2008 Weekly Forecast
In keeping with our previous forecast, American markets turned bearish last week as key indexes broke through their previous January lows. This week is likely to be similarly negative with serious retesting of the Jan 22 intraday lows (11,500/1270). I expect to the market to break through those levels at least on an intraday basis. Thursday may be decidedly negative as the transiting Sun opposes the natal Mars of the NYSE chart. Friday's close also looks like a decline so we should finish lower than Monday's open. The week after next (esp Monday the 17th) looks more negative so investors looking for exitable rallies would do well to act this week or wait a couple more weeks. That said, I think we won't see 13,000/1420 for many months, or perhaps even next year.
Bombay and Tokyo are also coming off tough weeks. The Sensex is unlikely to experience any great recovery this week. In fact, I think we'll end up lower than where we started at 15,975. Tuesday looks like the most bullish day. Starting the week at 12,782, the Nikkei will also retest lows this week given the transiting Saturn square to the natal Venus in the TSE chart. Rallies will be weak and may not go much above 13,000, while the intraday downside may see 12,000.
The decline in the US dollar and the rise in the Euro will continue, although I think the gains may be more modest this week. Monday looks mostly negative, perhaps will dips near 1.525. The rest of the week seems stronger overall with a rise into Friday. Next week looks like there will be more upside beyond 1.55.
Oil is likely to continue higher. Monday may be negative, but the upward trend with resume on Tuesday. We may see $110 at some point this week. Thursday looks like a big gain.
Gold starts the week at $972 and is poised to hit $1000 and yet I'm questioning my faith that it will break through this week. Monday looks the most volatile but I'm not certain if the market will stay positive. A decline for Tuesday seems likely. Wednesday looks strongest. Retracement is likely for Thursday with Friday as an up day that may take us over the top. We should end the week higher than where we started.
March 2 2008 Weekly Forecast
Equity markets are probably headed lower this week. The question is: will they break through support levels? My initial reading of the charts says yes, although things will be clearer by midweek. The end of the week looks most negative, so if we can get some up days in the early part of the week, then the indexes may not break decisively through. In NY, I do think we'll end up lower than where we start (12,266 on the Dow and 1330 on the S&P), but possibly not by much. Right now, I'd say we have a greater than 50% chance of breaking down below 12,000/1320 at least on an intraday basis. Nonetheless, any rallies to 12,500/1360 that may occur early on should be seen as exit points from the market. Venus and Mercury will oppose the natal Uranus in the NYSE chart through much of the week, so expect a lot of volatility.
Tokyo and Bombay's BSE are also headed lower from their present levels. The Nikkei may fare better of the two, although it will seriously retest its January low of 12,572. The Sensex will probably drop below its previous February low of 16,600, especially by Thursday as Mercury and Venus oppose the natal Mars in the BSE chart. It has the potential to be a fairly nasty time with daily declines on the order of 3-5%.
Gold, oil and the Euro will continue on their bullish trends although not as strongly or consistently as in the past couple weeks. The Euro will continue strong but later in the week beginning Wednesday there will be significant declines, perhaps back to 1.51 or lower. Monday and Tuesday will not see any major selloffs. As we said last week, gold is a good bet to move past $1000 this week. Oil is vulnerable to declines this week, so rallies beyond $102 will not likely not last. I think we'll see oil back under $100 for at least intermittently through the week and by the close Friday.
I will post some more time-specific revised forecasts in my commentary through the week.
February 24, 2008 Weekly Forecast
American markets have been trading within a fairly narrow range for the past few weeks. This will continue this week. The best days will probably be Monday and Tuesday where may see 12,600 on the Dow and 1380 on the S&P on an intraday basis. The mood will turn negative on Wednesday and Thursday as the market will retreat back to those old familiar support levels we saw tested last week. Friday should start with a good rally as the Moon is in good aspect to Jupiter, but the indicators are mixed to negative after that, so short term traders would be advised to sell while the market is rising in the morning. Overall, I think the market will finish close to where it started the week (12,381/1353) but I think we're more likely to finish higher.
Tokyo will probably end the week a little lower. Monday looks positive, as does Friday, but in between we will see some declines. The Wednesday open stands out as a substantial sell-off. Overall, we are likely to see a retesting of 13,000 on the Nikkei but may finish in the 13,300 to 13,600 range.
Bombay's best days of the week will also likely be Monday and Friday, but it will be tough sledding to keep the Sensex above its current level of 17,369 by Friday. Probably we will finish below that level around 17,000. The best chance for a midweek rally is Wednesday, although this will lose some strength at the close. Thursday's close will likely be negative as Moon squares Saturn.
The Euro will likely continue its rally this week and finish above its current levels of 1.485. It will go above 1.49 at some point and may even touch 1.495, although it may occasionally slip below 1.48. Look for a sell-off Monday at midday CET as the Moon aspects Saturn. The best rally of the week will probably be Wednesday late afternoon CET.
Oil will likely push through $100 again this week, but this time it will probably hold above that psychological threshold. Prices will retreat Monday morning EST, but then move higher from there. Thursday looks like a day of consolidation with the rally resuming Friday.
Gold is rallying lately but I think sentiment will turn more cautious this week. The best rallies are likely Monday or Tuesday, both early in the day EST. We will probably close about $950 on one or both of those days. But the rest of the week looks less optimistic, so I think we'll probably finish the week below $940.
February 17, 2008 Weekly Forecast
Last week we successfully called the up week for the American markets. This week looks more iffy though, so I think the market will struggle to maintain its current levels of Dow 12,348 and S&P 1349. It will may drop below support levels of 12,200 and 1320 on an intraday basis early in the week. Monday afternoon looks bad, but Wednesday at midday looks good and this may signal a reverse of market sentiment for the rest of the week. I'm less certain about the final levels of the NY market this week, but going out on a limb, I would say that they will finish up, perhaps making it to13,500 on the Dow and 1360 on the S&P.
Tokyo is coming off a decent week as forecasted here when it finished at 13,622. I'm less sanguine about the NIKKEI this week however as the Sun-Saturn opposition will fall very close to the Asc-Dsc of the Topix index chart while Sun will oppose the natal Saturn in the TSE chart. But there is a battle here since Venus will conjoin the natal Jupiter at the same time, on Feb 19-20. My sense is the negativity of the Sun-Saturn will push the market down on Monday and Tuesday, but on Wednesday, the market will recover. So we'll probably drop back to 13,000 early on, and then recover and perhaps exceed 13,600 by week's end. Friday looks good, so we will probably finish higher than last Friday's close. This chart is not looking good for May however, as Saturn will station on its natal position. Be afraid, be very afraid.
Bombay's SENSEX was up last week, and finished at 18,115. The good times will likely continue through this week, although early in the week looks more tentative. Tuesday could be a down day however, as a decline will hit the market in the afternoon IST. Thursday and Friday look better, and we may see the index climb past 19,000. Monday and Tuesday of the following week will see big up days so staying long over the weekend will likely pay off handsomely.
The Euro is coming off its best week in months. I expect it to drop significantly Monday, maybe back to 1.46 as the US dollar will strengthen to 0.685. But the basic trend will be upwards this week. If buying on dips, another drop is likely Wednesday morning EST. The high will occur on Friday, although I don't see it eclipsing last Friday's high of 1.4685 by much. I think the medium term rally is still in place for the Euro at least until April 5 (to 1.50?), after which a major decline is likely.
Gold is probably going to start the week slowly. Some pullbacks below $900 are likely, especially in Asia Monday morning (local time) and Tuesday morning in NY. Venus will be square natal Uranus on Tuesday, so that points to a volatile price that may enjoy short but ultimately weak rallies that do not hold. Prices will rise by Thursday, however, so that should put us convincingly over $900 and probably back approaching $920 by Friday. It could even go higher, so the trend is your friend. Look for the week's high to occur midday Friday in New York EST. The week after looks even better.
Oil is likely to continue its recent upward climb this week. Mercury is stationing at the Sun-Jupiter midpoint while Jupiter will trine the natal Venus exactly this week. The biggest price rise will probably happen on Tuesday morning EST. We may see oil go past $97 a barrel then. Wednesday will see a pullback, probably back close below $95. Look for a higher short term peak early in the following week on Feb 25-26. $100 is very possible in the next two weeks.
February 10 2008 Weekly Forecast
We did well last week as markets retreated back near their support levels as forecast. The Dow finished slightly under our target of 12,200-12,400 and the S&P was within range as it closed at 1331. The markets aren't likely to breakout of their current range this week. In New York, the early part of the week looks uncommitted, with minimal testing on the downside and modest rally attempts. I don't foresee the indices falling through current support levels, however. Expect to see a decent rally near the close Monday. With a broader rally starting by late Wednesday or early Thursday, we may see highs above 12,500 on the Dow and perhaps 1360-1380 on the S&P. I am forecasting a generally up week.
The Japanese market looks pretty uninspired this week, although Thursday and Friday should see some gains as tr. Venus conjoins the natal Moon and trines Jupiter. But the general planetary architecture suggests any rallies won't get too far. I expect the market to move between 12.8K and 13.5K with the latter figure representing a target for the Friday close. Next week's Mercury station squares the natal Saturn in the natal chart, so we can look for lows to punch through the 13K support level then and test the January lows of 12.6K.
Bombay will follow the basic trend of negative to even start to the week (Monday looks the worst) and then look for an move upward Wednesday by midday. Thursday looks positive with a possibility of some profit taking Friday.
The Euro will start the week continuing its recent fall against the greenback. It may fall as low as 1.44. Wednesday there will be a turnaround rally that stretches into Thursday, so we can expect to see it back above 1.45 at least. Thursday morning EST appears to be a high. Friday may be a day of consolidation.
Gold will open the week strong with a decent gain as Venus returns to its natal position. But the rest of week looks indifferent with tr. Mercury falling under Ketu's aspect, so a pullback to $900 is possible.
February 3 2008 Weekly Forecast
I'm happy to say that last week went more or less according to plan. I thought the markets would end higher and they did, by about 5%. The best weekly performance in several years. The Dow started the week at 12,200 and ended at 12,750. I had forecast at least 12,500 and possibly hitting 12,800. I was somewhat off in my day timing however, since I thought Wed and Thur would be the nice gains. As it was, the gains came Thurs and Fri. Monday was also a good up day. My call on the Euro was broadly correct since it was largely up against the US dollar although it did finish lower on Friday as forecast at 1.48. This was a little higher than I thought since I had thought it would settle back to 1.475. But at least I got the direction right.
This week will be more tentative all around. I do not expect the Dow to maintain this level (12,850) by Friday as the negative indicators outnumber the positive. There will probably be an intraday retesting of last week's levels at 12,200 (1320 on the S&P) and a down mood will predominate. Monday the 4th afternoon looks negative, while Wednesday and Thursday (6th and 7th) look very volatile and largely negative as transiting Sun and Mercury oppose the natal Uranus and Ascendant in the NYSE chart. Look for greater than 1% declines, especially on Wednesday. Thursday afternoon will probably be less of a decline as there will be a substantial rally in the afternoon. There should be a rally Friday morning but it likely won't hold and the averages will probably finish in the red that day. We'll be lucky to finish the week above 12,500. I think a more realistic target will be near 12,200-12,400 and 1320-1340 on the S&P.
Tokyo by contrast looks neutral to bullish this week. Monday (4th) looks positive, and Wednesday (6th) looks like a solid up day, too, although the market is likely to finish with a loss on Friday(8th). Still, it should be in the green overall. Bombay looks slightly bullish as it starts with a strong Monday (4th). Wednesday afternoon looks negative though as Moon is aspected by Rahu. The negative sentiment will carry through Thursday (7th) with a down day. Friday will be an up day that should put the Sensex in positive territory for the week. We'll see how far above water it can remain.
The Euro looks mildly bearish this week but look for short term highs Tuesday morning local time as Moon conjoins the natal Venus. Thursday afternoon looks rough. It will probably fall back below 1.47 and finish the week near that level.
Gold looks slightly bearish this week. It might slip below $900 this week and may even finish below. But it does not look like another major downward leg. Watch for short term lows Wednesday a.m EST (6th) as the Moon falls under the spell of Ketu for a while. There ought to be a nice finish to the week with a big price rise Friday afternoon EST. It may even push back above $900 or perhaps even $910.
January 27 2008 Weekly Forecast
Although the Dow did break below 12,000, last week was much better than many had feared thanks to an emergency rate cut from the Fed. That said, the market had largely stabilized by the end of the week and a short term bottom has formed around 12,000. This is largely in keeping with my preceding forecast. The Rahu effect on the transiting Sun was also keenly felt as predicted as the market fell almost 200 points on Friday. While the market may test the 12,000 support level on an intraday basis in the next week, I think the movement will be mostly on the upside in the coming days. The main aspect pushing it upwards is the applying conjunction of Venus and Jupiter. It is important to note, however, that prices will be bullish because of where they fall in the natal chart of the NYSE. They will exactly trining the close natal Venus-MC conjunction. This trine aspect becomes exact on the 30th and 31st (Wed and Thurs) and we should see the Dow rise significantly, probably past 12,500 and perhaps pushing towards 12,800. Watch for a decline Friday morning on profit taking. Markets worldwide will follow this basic pattern for the most part. The Tokyo stock exchange chart is similarly oriented to move higher in the middle of the week. The Euro will start the week falling against the US dollar but will rally by Tuesday or Thursday as the Euro chart also benefits from the Venus-Jupiter conjunction. Expect high trading volumes and extreme volatility mid-week as the now retrograde Mercury sits on natal Ketu(SN). This creates a schizophrenic market that can quickly oscillate between upward and downward movements. Given the turbulence, the mid-week rally may attempt the 1.475 level but it's unlikely to be there by Friday. The Euro will strengthen through February and March. Look for a high in the first week of April.
January 21 2008 Weekly Forecast
With global markets dropping on average 5% today, we can look for the Dow to break decisively through the 12,000 support level on Tuesday. It comes as no surprise given our bearish prediction for January (see Jan 7 Update below) Perhaps the size of the drop is a little shocking, but we can see how our key indicators have correctly forecast the current meltdown. The NYSE chart is running Saturn-Sun, with the Sun coming under Ketu's malefic aspect in the natal chart. That creates the possibility of weakness that can be exploited by stressful transits and progressions. The transiting nodes are currently squaring natal Mercury creating great instability in trading. The afflictions in the secondary progressed chart we are entering a serious bear market owing to the simultaneous perfection of P2 Venus square P2 Neptune and P2 Asc conjunct P2 Pluto square P2 Jupiter. Since we have to allow for some orb on these aspects, we have to apply them to a time frame of up to two years. A more precise timing of this decline can be seen in the tertiary progressed chart which features P3 Mercury retrograde station occurring square P3 Saturn within one degree (exact November 07) while P3 Mars squares P3 Neptune on the Descendant (exact April 08). Clearly this decline will be sizable and take us out of the realm of a correction and put us into a bear market territory.
I think we will likely see a short term bottom this week, although watch for increased volatility and new lows Thursday and Friday as the Sun falls under trinal aspect of natal Rahu. I am looking for some rallies in Feb and March and beyond, especially as P4 Sun trines P4 Jupiter (Mar 17) and P4 Venus trines P4 Pluto (Apr 12). I expect January lows to be re-tested during the period of late April and May as the antardasha period switches to the Moon, and Ketu aspects it closely while Saturn retrogrades back towards a close square to the Sun. It's not going to be pretty, folks. Look for new lows for the year to be set then.
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NYSE Composite with transits 1/7/08Jan 7 2008 Forecast Update The markets have sagged in the past month on continuing credit crunch fallout, rising oil prices and subsequent inflationary fears, and the prospect of a full-blown recession. I think the Dow is likely to be weak or decline through January, but then move up in February as Saturn separates from the Mercury in the NYSE chart. The upward trend in prices should continue until April, or perhaps May. A sudden and sharp fall (>10%) will likely occur then and break the prevailing upbeat mood on Wall St. Look for more frequent updates here as we head through this turbulent period.
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Aug 20 2007 Forecast Update
The markets have corrected by more than 10% as a result of the US credit crunch in the past few weeks. I originally had forecast a rally in the summer that would last into the beginning of August after which we would see declines. (see below). This was a little off in terms of timing, since the high occurred in July, but it is significant that most of the decline did occur after the Jupiter station of August 6th, as I previously forecast. There may be some minor rallies in the next week before the total Lunar Eclipse of Aug 28th, but it is doubtful that it will be sustainable. Look for volatility and some triple digit losses in early Sept. I believe we have already seen the market highs for the year, although there is a possibility of other rallies in September and October that might come close. November and December look bearish, so investors would do well to consider these buying opportunities. I expect a significant market run-up in early 2008 leading into the Spring.
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Mar 22 2007 Forecast Update
Markets around the world started 2007 on a cautious note as January's new highs were erased after markets caught the Shanghai flu. Most markets are off their highs at the time of writing (late March). The outlook remains mixed at best for the rest of the year, with a greater risk of larger declines going into the Fall. Based on my analysis of the relevant horoscopes, this year is likely to yield poor returns to investors.
For the US markets, the chart I like to use is the NYSE Composite Index chart (launched May 6 1982 10.00 am). While the New York Stock Exchange famously began on Wall Street under a buttonwood tree on the morning of May 17 1792, the actual time is a matter of some debate. And once you factor in numerous re-incorporations of the exchange over the years, you increase the margin of error well above and beyond whatever ever significant amout of error already exists in astrology, to say nothing of my interpretation of it.
NYSE Composite chart with transits for May 1, 2007In a nutshell, the February-March decline can be blamed on two afflictions to the Sun in the natal chart from Saturn and Ketu. The approaching square from transit Saturn to the Sun will tend to depress prices until it begins forward motion at the end of April. The Sun is doubly important to this chart because it is placed in the 11th house of gains. The exact trine from Ketu represents another layer of affliction to the Sun around that time and explains the relatively unenthusiastic snapback of the New York markets in the wake of the initial sell-off. Attempts at rallies probably won't get very far as the mood will be tentative.
A significant summer rally is likely as Jupiter stations making a fairly close aspect to Mercury. It's still three degrees off so it's unlikely to be that strong, but it will probably represent a notable shift in investor sentiment towards optimism -- at least for a while. Once Jupiter turns direct on August 7th, however, the market will again be susceptible to declines. At this time, the nodes will station in a tight square to Mercury which also happens to be the bhukti lord so the medium term and 2007 market top will likely happen before the Fall.
NYSE Composite with transits for October 1, 2007The real troubles will appear in the Fall, especially once the Ketu bhukti has begun on October 1st. At this time, Ketu will still be in square aspect to Mercury (trading) and Saturn will have moved to join Ketu in mid-Leo to form its most malefic 10th house aspect. This period will see substantial losses that will likely erase whatever gains had accrued thus far in the year. I also don't see enough positive configurations that would point to a powerful Santa Claus rally. Overall, the index is most likely to close lower (perhaps a lot lower) on December 31, 2007 than it was on January 1, 2007.
TSE Topix Index chart with transits for Oct 1, 2007 Japanese Stocks
The likelihood of a substantial (i.e. >10%) worldwide market decline in the Fall 2007 is supported by an analysis of the Japanese stock market. Using the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Topix index launch date (July 1, 1969 9.00 am), we can see that powerful Saturn-Ketu conjunction sitting atop the Ascendant of this chart. Hard to see anything bullish coming of that combination unless you're long in Eli Lilly. This chart is running the Rahu-Mars period which isn't anything to write home about either. In January 2008, however, Jupiter dasha begins which signals an improvement in sentiment and hopefully higher prices in the long term.
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