Modi to return as PM: India exit polls

(20 May 2019) Exit polls suggest that India's PM Narendra Modi is likely to return to power.  While India's Lok Sabha election result will be formally announced on Thursday May 23, Sunday's closely-watched exit polls pointed towards an even bigger majority this time for Modi's NDA alliance.  Markets soared on the exit poll news as the BSE-Sensex gained almost 4% in Monday's session.

The national horoscope for India shows why Modi is likely to return as Prime Minister.  In my experience, sitting incumbent leaders are typically re-elected if the Sun is well-aspected in the national chart.  The Sun represents the government as a whole as well as the head of the executive branch.   The 10th house should also be strong at the time of the election or the announcement of results. 

Immediately, we can see why the planets favour Modi at this time: Jupiter (27 Scorpio) is closely aspecting the Sun (28 Cancer) within one degree of a benefic 120-degree trine aspect.   That is a very solid indication of a return to power for a sitting PM.  I would also note a helpful Sun-Mercury conjunction to the India Ascendant at 7 Taurus.  These transits highlight this particular week as significant for the country in a general sense and give added weight to the Jupiter-Sun alignment. 

However, we should note that there are some intriguing alignments in play this week.  Specifically, Rahu (26 Gemini) is exactly trine natal Jupiter.  As a natural malefic, Rahu (the North Lunar Node or 'Dragon's Head')  is often associated with confusion, deception and disruption of the status quo.  In a national chart, Jupiter symbolizes law and legal matters, and secondarily as wealth and the economy.  This Rahu-Jupiter aspect could bring some unexpected developments into the political mix this week. 

In legal terms, it could indicate some significant disputes or conflict that come to the surface around this election result.  In that sense, Rahu's tendency to erase boundaries integrates poorly with Jupiter's legal side which seeks to uphold stability and order.  However, Rahu works better with Jupiter's economic side since it symbolizes acquisitiveness and materialism.  It is possible that this aspect could also reflect the rising India stock market as investors welcome the BJP's promise of greater reforms and less regulation. 

In addition, Mars (10 Gemini) is prominent on Thursday May 23 as it aligns with Jupiter through its 135-degree aspect.  (This is the degreewise Rasi expression of the D-8 Asthamsa chart where Mars is aspected by the transiting Rahu and hence also with the natal Jupiter in the India chart.)   A positive interpretation of this Mars transit to natal Jupiter would simply be that Thursday is the decision (action) day for the central legal institutions of the country as the result is formally announced.

However, a negative interpretation is also possible, especially given the placement of Rahu.  Since Mars is negatively associated with conflict, we have to be open to the possibility that the election result may generate significant opposition.  This is perhaps always the case to some extent as the losing party inevitably cries foul.  And yet the positioning of Mars and Rahu here suggests some unexpected developments are, at least, possible and worthy of consideration.

Ultimately, I don't know what the final result of the election will be.  Probably Modi and the BJP will return to lead a majority government.  But this week's position of Mars and Rahu in the national horoscope opens the door to some potential surprise or disappointment on Thursday.  Maybe the exit polls overestimated the NDA seat totals, or perhaps Congress will challenge the result.

Weekly Market Forecast

While Indian stocks soared Monday, most other global markets went sideways or lower.  The Dow in New York suffered a modest loss on Monday, after posting another losing week last week.  In last week's Monday update, I thought markets might have some further difficulty given the alignment of Mercury with the Saturn-Ketu conjunction.  That proved incorrect as stocks generally rebounded after Monday's big sell-off on the deepening US-China trade war. 

Collective sentiment seems to be caught between the bearish Saturn-Ketu conjunction and the bullish Jupiter-Pluto alignment. Given the low velocity of all the planets concerned, these are ongoing influences lasting several weeks at least.  I tend to think that the Saturn-Ketu alignment is more dominant (hence it has a greater width in the timeline chart below) so this could be a time for caution.  Some passing influences this week could also induce some selling, especially around midweek as Mercury aligns with Mars.  It is unclear how close Indian markets could follow these global transits given the separate logic of the election results, however.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

These forecasts are usually posted weekly. 
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