Trump wins in US election shocker: post-mortem

(9 November 2016)  Well, I wasn't expecting that.  After a long and divisive campaign, Republican nominee Donald Trump has scored a stunning upset in yesterday's US election and is now the president-elect of the United States.  The billionaire real estate mogul's improbable anti-establishment candidacy harnessed white working-class discontent over the disproportionate impacts of globalization and a remote and resented urban elite.  While the margin of victory was small in the Electoral College -- Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote  -- the incoming Trump administration will wield considerable power given that both the House and the Senate are also controlled by the Republicans.   As I predicted yesterday, stock markets did decline sharply on news of the Trump win, although they recovered some ground after his generous victory speech.  We will see where markets go next.

Mea culpa.  I was dead wrong in my prediction of a Clinton win.  How did I miss it?  In hindsight, there were a few "sources of error".  In the USA horoscope, I had noted how tense and afflicted the Sun was at 22 Gemini from the Pluto opposition aspect and the Saturn quincunx (150 degree angle) at the time of the election.  Since the Sun symbolizes government and authority, I thought this might mean that government institutions would be under pressure and I suggested it could be the result of a very close and/or contested election result.  Trump had spoken often of the rigged election and if Hillary had won, he certainly would have challenged the results.

But I didn't give proper consideration to a more straightforward interpretation of this affliction: a change in the government ruling party.  Pluto and Saturn can pack a considerable punch and their dual alignment with the Sun of the USA looked difficult for the country as a whole.  Actually, the US is waking up today to a shocking new reality of a Trump administration.  It is a troubling time for the Democrat supporters and more importantly for the entrenched elites in Washington, New York, and Los Angeles that now have to find a place within a hostile new reality.   

But more than that, the Pluto opposition to the Sun overturned the status quo.  Again, I thought this would manifest as a possible suspension of authority during the transfer of power before the Inauguration.  Instead, it will be complete takeover of power by a whole new group of rulers who will displace the existing ruling class. Pluto is all about power, of course, so its tense opposition aspect to the Sun frames this notion of a popular revolt quite well. 

In hindsight, my personal bias against Trump was another reason why I may have misinterpreted some of these tense aspects in the USA.  Bias can be hard to control sometimes however hard one tries to assess the evidence.  A more objective analysis might have seen the alignments for what they were -- a changing of the guard and a new government rather than a Clinton win that would be somehow postponed or temporarily confounded by Trump's objections.  When confronted with that affliction to the Sun, I engaged in wishful thinking that assumed that Hillary would still eventually win despite some bumps in the road between November and January.  Bottom line, I saw a problem with Hillary's fortunes around the time of the  election but only went half-way in my conclusions because I assumed and hoped that she would win.  I couldn't bring myself to follow the Pluto-Saturn-Sun alignment to its full logical conclusion: a Trump presidency.

I also thought Trump's chart wasn't strong enough to carry him to the presidency.  His chart was obviously very powerful during the campaign and noted that several times previously.  But the placements that I normally see for election wins were largely missing from his chart.  For example, there were no major planetary stations hitting any key points in his chart.  Yes, he had the transiting Jupiter station in early February (at 29 Virgo trine to his Sun at 29 Taurus) just after the inauguration, but usually winning candidates would have something like that closer to election day when they actually win. 

Following the work of political astrologer Richard Houck, there should also be one or two favourable progressed stations around the time of the election and this was also largely missing from the Trump chart.  There was a minor progressed station of Venus that looked generally good but it also occurred well after the election in January so I did not give it its proper due.  So I was wrong about that.  Trump's win is a useful lesson in humility (ugh!) and in expanding our knowledge of of the decisive factors in political astrology.

The other source of error was the absence of a correct birth time for Hillary Clinton.  Her birth time is unknown and this forces us to either use approximated noon charts or use proxies.  I used the charts of husband Bill and daughter Chelsea Clinton and thought they were providing confirming evidence for a Clinton win.  Not so.  While they are the closest people to Hillary, their charts are only an approximation of Hillary's life outcomes and emotional states.  But what were their emotional states yesterday? Transiting Jupiter was conjunct Bill's Venus -- a very nice hit to have that usually indicates happiness.  It seems unlikely that Bill was anything other than devastated by Hillary's loss, but nobody really knows how he felt or what his other motivations might have been.

I would also say that Hillary's loss gives more credence to the 2.18 a.m. birth time.  As I noted in yesterday's post, Saturn was sitting on the 4th house cusp and closely aspecting the Ascendant for the election.  This is often a difficult transit which suggests setbacks, unhappiness, and dislocation.  The 2.18 a.m. time has a bad reputation in some astrological circles due to its questionable source but certainly this election loss should compel more astrologers to take a second look at it.  I know I will.

But the large asterisk on my US election forecast misfire is that at least I may still be proven correct about the financial impact of the post-election period.  I thought it would be "uncertain" and hence difficult for financial markets.  It may turn out to be uncertain in a different way, however: not in terms of not knowing the winner of the election but in terms of what the winner may do next.  Since I do a lot of financial astrology, the market impacts of political developments are foremost in my mind.  I had repeatedly suggested that the October and November period was looking more volatile and it could be related to the election.  Yesterday's post on the post-election period identified a few factors which suggested declines this week and later on in November. 

A Trump presidency brings a lot of uncertainty to financial markets as nobody knows what he will actually do in terms of trade agreements, immigration or the Federal Reserve.  Trump is inexperienced and flighty so investors will have to become doubly nimble to avoid getting sideswiped by his unpredictable policy moves.  Since markets hate uncertainty, I am more negative on global financial prospects now for the foreseeable future.  This is not only based on what financial markets know about Donald Trump's views, but also because Trump's horoscope is very afflicted in 2017.  Unfortunately, for America and the world, Trump's karma is now our karma.