US midterm elections: can the Democrats win?

(21 August 2018) As the summer winds down, attention is shifting towards the US midterm elections in November.  These elections will be particularly important this year since they will largely be a referendum on the turbulent Trump presidency.  Currently, the Republicans control both houses of Congress as that has helped Trump to implement his agenda.  But if the Democrats win the House and possibly the Senate, then Trump would be hamstrung and effectively neutralized.  It would also likely mean that impeachment proceedings would begin in early 2019. 

At the moment, most analysts believe the Democrats are likely to win the House of Representatives.  The political betting site puts the odds at 67% while gives it a 75% probability.  A Democrat win of the Senate is more unlikely with around just a 25% probability. 

My readings of the horoscopes of the key players suggest that the Democrats are likely to do well in the elections on November 6th.  For starters, President Trump's chart looks difficult at that time.  Transiting Mars (0 Aquarius) will be squaring his MC/10th house cusp indicating stressful situations relating to career and status.  Mars will also oppose its natal position in the 1st house and align with Saturn and Venus in his 12th house.  None of these hits suggest winning bigly.  Rahu (North Lunar Node) will be conjunct his 12th house cusp representing loss.  This is often a bad transit which correlates with disruptive events that break with the status quo and cause disappointment. 

Jupiter will be transiting his 4th house cusp in November so that could be a saving grace.  Maybe the GOP holds on to the Senate with this transit.  And yet Jupiter hits are no guarantee of positive results, especially when the rest of this chart is this afflicted.  Jupiter is often weaker at the bottom of the chart and could represent a turning inward (4th house = mind) as a consequence of negative events in the world.

The other thing to remember about Donald Trump's chart is that he enters his Jupiter-Saturn dasha period on November 19 according to the Krishnamurthi ayanamsha.  For the duration of his presidency, he has been running the much stronger Jupiter-Jupiter dasha.  As of November, he should have a worsening of fortunes over the next 2+ years.  Saturn is poorly placed in his 12th house, albeit next to Venus.  This dasha period could bring about separation or divorce from his wife Melania since Saturn is conjunct Venus, the planet of marriage.  The 2018-2020 period may also be a time when secret 12th house matters involving women and sex (Venus) bring him embarrassment and scandal. 

Compare Trump's chart with Barack Obama, the former Democrat president.  If Obama's horoscope is well-aspected, then it seems more likely that the Democrats will do well in the midterms.  That does seem to be the case as Jupiter (5 Scorpio) is exactly conjunct his 10th house cusp/MC which symbolizes career and status.  When benefics such as Jupiter align with this point, the person usually has good news regarding career.  As an added boost, Jupiter will aspect Obama's Mercury in November. 

Since Trump's chart looks bad on November 6th and Obama's chart looks good, it seems more likely that the Democrats will regain control of at least the House.  Therefore, the astrology would seem to support the prevailing view that the Democrats will win.  But can they also win the Senate which most analysts are saying is a long shot? 

I don't have any strong opinions on that question, although a look at the horoscope of the Democrat Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer suggests it's possible.  Schumer was born with the Sun at 7 Scorpio so Jupiter will be closely conjunct at the time of the election.  This is a very positive placement.  Also, Venus will be in aspect with his natal Jupiter in early November.  Unfortunately, Schumer's birth time is unknown so we can only use his approximated chart cast for noon. 

GOP Senate Leader Mitch McConnell's chart looks unimpressive for November.  Again, he have no birth time for him so we have to use the noon chart.  Unlike Schumer's chart, Jupiter is not aspecting any planet in McConnell's chart.  More negatively, Saturn (11 Sagittarius) will be casting its full strength 3rd house aspect to the Sun.  Moreover, it will align closely with Venus (12 Capricorn), Pluto (12 Cancer) and possibly the Aries Moon also, depending on his exact birth time.  These hits strongly suggest that McConnell will not have much to celebrate in November. 

Of course, it may not mean that the GOP loses the Senate. McConnell's chart would likely be afflicted in November anyway if the Democrats simply won the House since it would damage his party's fortunes overall. But the level of affliction hints at possibility of bigger problems than simply losing the House.  McConnell and the other GOP bigwigs likely already expect to lose the House.  This suggests that the midterm losses the GOP suffers will be greater than expected, including maybe losing the Senate. 

I will revisit this question in the coming weeks as the election draws closer.

Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have generally been bullish thus far in August.  In fact, the S&P 500 made a new record high today at 2873 before pulling back at the close. Indian stocks have also hit records as the BSE Sensex is now trading above 38,000.  In my previous forecast two weeks ago, I thought that the rally in stocks might start to weaken last week in the wake of the New Moon.  That hasn't really happened although we did see some down days on Monday and Wednesday last week. 

So where do stocks go now?  While the bulls are very much in control, some kind of pullback also looks likely in the coming days.  The Full Moon on Sunday, August 26th is a bearish influence, as is the Mars direct station on Monday the 27th.  Therefore, the rest of the week may see increased caution.  Wednesday's Moon-Pluto conjunction is a possible signal in that regard, although Venus will be bullishly aligned with Jupiter and Neptune as well.  This could offset some of the brewing negativity.  Mars aspects the Sun again tomorrow, however, so that is an additional burden on sentiment.  I would note that Mars has been in aspect with the Sun on Monday and Tuesday already with few obviously negative effects.  Thursday's Moon-Mars conjunction looks more volatile and could turn an initially positive week into a losing one. 

For more details on the short and medium outlook for the markets, check out my weekly investor newsletter.  I cover US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil, and major currencies.