Sell in May and go away?

(29 April 2019)  The stock market remains buoyant after Friday's 3.2% US GDP number and generally positive earnings reports.  Some US indexes have made new all-time highs although the large cap Dow and the small cap Russell 2000 have yet to follow the S&P 500 and NASDAQ into record territory.  Corporate America is thriving in Trump's low-tax, low-regulation environment, albeit with a helping hand for the Fed and its ultra-loose monetary policies that encourages leveraging through higher debt levels.  We're probably living in an asset bubble that is not sustainable in the long run, but as Keynes said, "in the long run, we are all dead."

There is an old adage in the stock market to "sell in May and go away" since historical returns from May to October are lower than through the rest of the year.  That may well prove to be wise advice this year given the series of planetary alignments that lie ahead.  As I have noted previously, April could be a month of transition in the wake of the Jupiter retrograde station on April 10th and the transit of Mercury through sidereal Pisces for the rest of the month. So far, we haven't seen any downside from that Mercury in Pisces transit although there are a few days left this week.

But bearish Saturn turns retrograde late today (Monday, Apr 29) so that could coincide with another shift in sentiment.  Even more problematic are the series of Mars alignments this week that could act as a trigger to the Saturn-Ketu conjunction.  I thought we might have seen a hint of anxiety from some lesser aspects of the Sun, Venus and the Moon last week but US stocks saw only a very small decline on Wednesday and Thursday at the time of these lesser 75 and 105 degree alignments. 

This week's alignments look more potent.  One reason is because the potential triggering planet is Mars, a natural malefic, which is more likely to coincide with negative outcomes than the Sun or Venus.   Mars also forms a more negative angle with Saturn and Ketu through its 210-degree quincunx.  So this is a full-strength, 8th house aspect that will fall on Saturn and Ketu during midweek, right around the time of the latest Fed statement on Wednesday.  Nobody really expects the Fed to change rates this week, but they could change some of their wording in the statement which may move markets. 

It should be an interesting week in the markets.

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