Elizabeth Warren on the rise as Dems prepare for third debate

(9 September 2019) It's been a good summer for Democratic 2020 contender Elizabeth Warren.  The Democrats are due to meet in Houston on Thursday for their third debate as the field has narrowed to just (!) ten candidates.  Former VP and moderate Joe Biden still enjoys a 10-12 point lead in the polls at 29% but the progressive Warren has now moved up to second place to 18%, just ahead of Bernie Sanders at 17%.  Kamala Harris is well back at 7% along with Buttigieg (4%), Yang (3%) Booker (3%) and O'Rourke (2%).

Warren is increasingly seen as the most viable progressive option to Biden as Sanders has so far failed to grow his base of support.  While we don't know her time of birth, her chart cast for noon June 22, 1949 hints at why she has picked up momentum this summer.  The positioning of Saturn has been much better for her in the past two months.  In the spring, Saturn had stationed almost exactly opposite her Venus (25 Gemini).  This may have blocked the advancement of her candidacy as Venus symbolizes happiness, success and social contacts while Saturn translates into restrictions, limits and disappointments. 

But Saturn's retrograde cycle this summer has moved it away from its opposition with Venus so this is one reason why Warren may have found greater appeal in recent weeks.  Saturn (19 Sagittarius) is now well away from Venus so that bodes well for the next few weeks at least for Warren's campaign.  The nodes, Rahu and Ketu, have also moved away from exact alignments with Venus and the Moon (24 Aries).  Troublesome Rahu was exactly conjunct Venus in the spring but has also moved off and has allowed her Venus to better express her political appeal with less encumbrance.






As far as Thursday's debate goes, I would expect Warren to acquit herself quite well.  Her chart doesn't get much benefit from the Mercury-Venus conjunction at 3-4 Virgo that day, but it will benefit from the Sun-Pluto aspect as it aligns closely with her Venus and possibly her Moon, depending on her exact birth time.  The Sun-Pluto influence on Venus and the Moon could be translated as 'a feminine and pleasing expression of power and leadership'.  The Moon is in Libra on Thursday, however, and lines up against her Saturn and Mars in a non-harmonious way.  The debate may be a bit tense in that respect although I would not expect anything too damaging or dramatic. But overall, Warren should help her cause in the debate. 

However, the longer term outlook for her is less positive.  At the time of the primaries in spring 2020, Saturn will station conjunct her Jupiter (=blocked progress) while Rahu will conjoin her Sun (disruption to status/authority) and Ketu will align with her Saturn (undermining of principles).  In addition, she has some very nasty progressed retrograde stations (Saturn and Neptune) in March, right around the time of the big Super Tuesday primary.  The winning candidate has to do well in those in order to have a chance to be the nominee at the summer convention.  Without good results in March, it will be nearly impossible for her to win.  Overall, I think Warren is a longshot to defeat Biden. 



A quick look at Joe Biden's chart suggest he will also do well on Thursday.  The Mercury-Venus conjunction at 4 Virgo aligns closely with his Sun-Venus conjunction at 4-5 Scorpio while the transiting Sun sits atop the MC.  This is a good transit set up for looking dominant and being successful in the debate. If anything, Biden's performance may well be better than Warren's, at least in terms of political outcomes. There has been some recent questioning of Biden's fitness for the presidency due to his advanced age.  Perhaps a good debate performance will help to allay those concerns. 

And yet I think Biden may suffer some kind of setback in September and October as Rahu is exactly aspecting his 12th house Mars.  Mars also happens to be his minor dasha lord so that could amplify the importance of this Rahu transit.  Rahu-Mars transits can indicate intense conflict and may even involve violence or punishment. 

The 12th house is associated with places of isolation such as foreign countries so there is a risk of some kind of damaging story about his foreign contacts.  Illness and hospitalization also cannot be ruled out since Mars in the 12th has these traditional associations.  Early October may be a somewhat more likely time for this kind of development since transiting Mars will conjoin Neptune (illness, hidden sources of income) and aspect Biden's natal Moon in the 6th house (health, legal matters).



Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks generally rose last week on renewed hopes for a US-China trade deal as well as a loosening of capital requirements for Chinese banks.  I thought we might have seen a bit more downside, however.  We did see an expected decline on Tuesday's Mercury-Mars-Sun conjunction and the subsequent rise broadly conformed with the bullish Venus-Neptune alignment.  The late week was more bullish than expected, however, as the negativity of the Sun-Saturn-Ketu alignment was more or less offset by the bullish Mercury-Jupiter pattern. 

This week leans bullish as Mercury aligns with Venus for much of the week.  To be sure, Venus enters sidereal Virgo on Tuesday so that is a red flag for possible declines over the coming four weeks for this transit.  But it may not have any immediate effect, especially since Mercury may act to shore up any weakness in Venus as it transits through its sign of debilitation.  The second half of the week may see rising downside risk as Mars aspects Jupiter.  This looks to be strongest on Thursday and Friday so bulls should practice caution.

For a more detailed analysis of the markets, please check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.








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